The only problem i see if the u.s decides to invade taiwan, whats gonna happen if they lose? I think most of us here can agree that there is huge chance if not likely that the americans will lose fighting China over taiwan.
If they are defeated they will lose huge part of their navy including carriers and might even lose their bases in japan, guam or even south korea
In their history we never see the americans take a huge gamble like that, they never fight a war they are not 100% sure they gonna win militarily, especially not against a nuclear power, if they are so adamant that they must fight China by 2025 like somekind of deadline, whats the hurry? What makes them have the confidence to do so?
One possibility is they don't care if they lose, and is willing to sacrifice their presence in east asia as long as they can burn the whole of east asia (which is btw the world economic engine) in a war while their homeland and industries stays unmolested
They would not get unmolested. When Japan started out ww2, their homeland was also untouchable except by one off raids. But the enemy and her industrial capability to make more platforms always gets a vote.
Another aspect is that besides with artillery, modern forces are not geared to burn down large areas of infrastructure. So US might be able to burn Taiwan province if they enlist the help of Beijing to turn it into a massive war zone, but damaging any major mainland city is almost out of the question.
America only has 141 bombers. That is actually less than Russia which has about 150. As we have seen in the Ukraine war, against relatively complex cities that have complete air defenses, even if outdated 90s soviet ones, strategic destruction is unable to happen.
Coastal cities such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tianjin have relative to US bases about the same strategic depth as Lviv or Kiev has relative to Russian bases.
And China's military industrial heartland of Chongqing, Xian, Chengdu and so are many times further inland.
Even if you generously assume US bomber force are 200%-300% more effective than VKS (even though there is no real indication they would be any better at lobbing cruise missiles), China also has massively better air defenses than Ukraine, and it can also fire annihilating salvoes back at the bases.
That means, even if full scale war is waging in the straits, it is almost certain that people even in coastal China will keep having more or less normal lives.
