What do you guys think about the possibility of a renewed attack from Belarus?
Micheal Koffman and others reported that the Belarusian armed forces are training at a historically high level and tens of thousands of Russians troops are training in the country as well. One speculation was that they would go for the Rivno nuclear power plant in the north west.
I think everybody has to be very careful about what they think may happen next.
What we can be very confident about is that a very large new Russian force will shortly enter into the conflict and it seems highly likely that they will open a new front to do so.
There are numerous locations where this could be, but it is not so much the where, but what it achieves by so doing. The main objective, as see it, will be to cause massive dislocation to the Ukrainian forces as they try and reposition to meet the new threat. The Russians want to make this as difficult as possible by hitting the energy infrastructure which makes the transportation of men, machines, ammunition and fuel all the more difficult.
Clearly the Russians are not going to want to telegraph their true intentions and therefore give the Ukrainians a chance to pre-position in anticipation. Ideally, the Russians would want to attack, where the Ukrainians are not, but obviously there are limits to their ability to position sufficient forces quickly enough to wrong foot the Ukrainians.
We have seen that when the Ukrainians need to move forces away from the established front lines, that the Russian forces already there are able to start advancing. We saw this along the Donbass front last week and only the rapid return of Ukrainian forces managed to stop the Russian offensives. The cost of course is that the Ukraine's own offensives have now come crashing to a halt as well.
Its a tough call for the Ukrainians, defend the key lines in the South or go all out to block the new front wherever it may emerge and kiss goodbye to the South forever, or lose another large chunk of the country somewhere.