Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[Overbom]

Before any more hot takes are given I suggest waiting until tomorrow and until the exercises end. I smell a conspiracy with these "exercises". The PLA might actually go for something this time

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

They didn't even bother to intercept Pelosi even when they intercept P-8s that fly nowhere close to China. That shows the response planned is something on a different front, to the point where diverting the minimum of 12-20 J11B wasn't considered worth it.

It takes a few days for the military to mobilize, even if they're not going for the entire island but only as far as Penghu.



After this, Beijing has the political support to simply not care about the opinion of Taiwan islanders. Kinmen and Matsu are useful bases to strike at the big Taiwan island.

Kinmen and Matsu are a good trade off for Pelosi's visit. Taking over the whole of Taiwan is just crazy at this point, special military operation or whatever

 

[Topazchen]

Sometimes I ask myself, is the world really ending soon, or am I spending too much time on SDF?

Seems like there was more drama here than in the Straits. Not gonna lie, the Chinese response was disappointing, but I remember also being disappointed in the inaction during the HK riots.

Ha! I also remember being disappointed, but in the end ,it looks like the decision makers in Beijing are smarter than me and you. Hindsight is 20/20 and looking back ,it seems that whatever actions they took were the right ones because who came out the winner ?

 

[siegecrossbow]

I think this is salami slicing with chinese characteristics: if the US is ok with changing the status quo, china will normalize not respecting the territorial claims of ROC. Starting with overflying the strait, military exercises within ROC borders. A proportional response to Pelosi's visit.

It might end up like the Diaoyu Island patrols.

 

[dasCKD]

If this somehow will reverse decades of bad economic policy and some how make the price of petrol in the USA go down, well this isn’t a very good way to go about it. Interesting that the response time being this quick meaning that China does have the ability to actual blow up her aircraft and cause extreme damage to Taiwan with her there but maybe China letting her get away with this one action could easily be part of a plan to see if the USA use this as a distraction from their own problems and how much it will help since I don’t see how this will help inflation in anyway. One small win doesn’t mean the USA has won in any way in the grand scheme of things as all this will do is now is that China must act to boost military funding and also dedollarise as fast has humanly possible so that the inflation in the USA will rise like no tomorrow. Her arriving also does nothing to mask the problems in Ukraine or the EU. Think of this as a continuation of the HK riots and how despite the support of the west that everything will ultimately end the same way

The issue is that tangible and substantive matters is far less important on the global stage than perception is. Pelosi's visit changes nothing substantively, but it will make it seem like the PRC is unwilling to act on the public state. This will embolden the likes of the US, the UK, Australia, and India to push issues with China more confrontationally in the future. This will give ammunition and legitimacy to the pro-secessionist parties in Taiwan, since the perception of a threat from the PLA is significantly less than it had been before this crisis.

Tomorrow, China will still be the same China. They'll have the same airplanes, warships, submarines, missile forces, and carriers and they'll be building more. The appearance of China in popular perception, on the other hand, will suffer a massive blow from this fiasco. If the PRC does nothing drastic then they will inevitably pay a price for this in their unification efforts. It doesn't matter how strong China is. If the PLA looks weak or looks unwilling to start a conflict, then that makes peaceful reunification less likely and a violent one a much greater risk.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Either the world ends or the forum will, so you don’t have much to worry about either way.

Why would the forum end?

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

Before any more hot takes are given I suggest waiting until tomorrow and until the exercises end. I smell a conspiracy with these "exercises". The PLA might actually go for something this time

Like I said before, it could just be a way to placate their populace. Sure, we do have to consider the possibility that the Chinese may pull off a “special military operation”. However that is resting on the assumption that Xi is as bold as Putin.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Why would the forum end?

If things go kinetic as he implied do you think it would still be allowed to operate?

 

[clockwork]

Why would the forum end?

Genocided by American CCP.

 

[escobar]

I do have to agree with @siegecrossbow that not even an attempted interception is weird. Seriously, it’s not like they were hiding Pelosi plane from public radar either. We all know the PLAAF is more then capable of intercepting warplanes.

what is the point of interception if you are not going to stop Pelosi from visiting TW