Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[Temstar]

Latest from Japan:

052D 155 Nanjing and 054A 599 Anyang have passed through between Japan and Taiwan and have taken up position to the East of Taiwan.

 

[FriedButter]

Then Pakistan would just yet again waste another opportunity to pounce on India like they did in 1962? I think not. India would be the most stupid idiot if it were to decide to attack China.

India won’t invade except under one condition. That China is clearly losing a war with the US. Then the likelihood of them making a move is a lot higher

 

[Sardaukar20]

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If Pelosi visits the island of Taiwan, "the PLA will not sit idly by" and will take "resolute and strong countermeasures" to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. As to what these measures are, Zhao said "if she dares to go, let's wait and see."

China's strategic view is far greater than just playing a game of hawk-and-chicken with Pelosi on her so-called surprise visit to the island, as China will use this provocative move by the US to irreversibly change the Taiwan Straits situation and speed up the reunification process, which is actually much more important than a US politician's visit, said experts.

"If Pelosi's aircraft enters our exercise area, we would have to take measures to eject, intercept, escort, and send a radio warning… If Pelosi gets her way, our warplanes may fire shells diagonally ahead of Pelosi's plane as a further warning," Fu said.

"If Pelosi were to land at Taipei's Songshan Airport on a US military executive flight C-40, would the accompanying escorts be expected to land with her in Taipei as well? Any landing of US military aircraft would be a serious violation of China's red line and would create a bigger crisis on top of Pelosi's," said Herman Shuai, a retired army lieutenant general in the island of Taiwan.

In the future, it may conduct flights close to the island and emphasize jurisdiction over the region's airspace and territorial waters, Lü said. China has no interest in getting involved in a spat with an 82-year-old lady, nor is it aiming for conflict with the US military, but if they get involved in China's core interests, we will definitely fight back in kind, Lü said.

This article by GT talks about a couple of options for China to deal with Pelosi's visit. I'm getting some hints that Pelosi might still be able to land on Taiwan. But not without severe harassments by the PLAAF. Some commenters here might take offense that China might not be going directly for a shoot down of Pelosi's plane and igniting WW3. But this Pelosi visit will not be cost-free for her and the US. There won't be inaction from China. Pelosi and the US crossing China redline means that they have lit the fuse. They will lose Taiwan soon, and China will also go for non-kinetic warfare against the US.

Let's not worry too much about Xi's 3rd term, or the legitimacy of the CPC. They are not gonna go down just because Pelosi insulted them. They've faced far worse internal dissent before. What's more important to the CPC is Taiwan, not Pelosi's dig at them.

Reunification with Taiwan is way more important for China than the life & death of that old c*** Pelosi. It is quite satisfying to see Pelosi dying in a fiery crash. But it is even more satisfying to see the look on her wrinkled face when she hears that the regime she that had visited awhile ago is gone. There will be a hot war, but it'll be between the PRC and the DPP's Taiwan first and foremost. War with the US will be prepared, only in case the US decides to butt in.

China achieves 3 things by going after only Taiwan, and not provoking a direct war with the US over a Pelosi shoot down. One, this gives the US an off-ramp to stay out of the reunification war. Two, this allows China to call the US's bluff over it's commitment to defend Taiwan. Three, China can concentrate on finishing off the regime in Taiwan ASAP.

So, it's very likely that there will be a hot conflict after Pelosi makes her Taiwan visit. But it will be on China's own terms and timetable. This will allow control on the escalation ladder. A sudden war with the US is not easy to control.

So no direct war with the US yet. But Taiwan will be taken off the board soon. The US will most likely chicken out. Their military and economy is not ready for this fight. But even if they do intervene, they still cannot stop the reunification process, and then it'll be an escalation to WW3, which the US is also not prepared for.

 

[bajingan]

Nuclear weapons procurement and sustainment isn't quite as easy as ordering off the Dollar Menu. Further, creating a military and political apparatus capable of effectively employing them is even more of a challenge. The PLA's credible deterrence CONOP is sufficient for the overwhelming majority of cases, and I wouldn't be surprised if the LOW capability they do pursue is intended to meet a newly adjusted "baseline" deterrent capability as they perceive it, rather than building a nuclear arsenal capable of obliterating the entire world in a first-strike. Maintaining that sort of capability is ludicrously expensive, extremely logistically taxing, and among other factors - very dangerous.

In general, on this forum, there seems to be an errant perception of nuclear weapons as serving more than strategic deterrence. This is simply not the case. They're not the sort of pandora's box you crack open to further operational objectives, and force-structures built around anything more than deterrence and the ability to counter-escalate should the circumstances call for it. They will not be used by a nation that is facing military defeat in an expeditionary conflict that poses no existential threat to the nation wielding them.

When I was first getting into the contracting field, someone I regard as a mentor said something very poignant, which I think you all may benefit from:

"Nukes are not like having a cannon that can blast away enemy cities when the time comes, they're like having a suicide vest - it might take everyone else out, but you're going with them."

Using nuclear weapons against another nuclear armed state (which invariably results in very impressive escalation-ladder any% runs, no matter how limited the first instance) is a surefire way to destroy your own nation. As such, using them is always the worst possible option, and thus are only relevant, or even prudent, in a role limited to simply ensuring an adversary does not use them either. After all, the goal in a conflict is not to put the enemy in as bad of a position as possible, it is to put your nation in as advantageous of a position as possible. Far too often, I see folks mix the two up.

Your knowledge is impressive, i learned a lot from you thanks, but i have questions about your statement about the cost of maintaining massive nuclear arsenal, if russia with a fraction of China's economy can maintain 5k nukes, why do you think its unaffordable for China?

 

[Temstar]

How many of these ferry do they have?

12 I think?

 

[BoraTas]

Would be nice for once for Chinese people to not need to endure hardship.

Regardless of the outcome, it is time for China (and all people who would like peace in the world) to consider the United States an existential threat, and prepare accordingly.

Biden admin is lunatic.
US Economy: Inflation and low growth
Russia: War in Europe
Iran: Collapse of JCPOA
NK: About to test a nuke
Middle East: Massive loss of US influence

They keep founding small cliques to bypass the UN and prevent the formation of blocks that will oppose American interests. For all their internationalist and pro-democracy rhetoric, they are dismantling the open post cold war world themselves. They have an interesting idea that they could create rules specific for keeping their adversaries boxed in and have the entire world obey to said rules.

I think one of the reasons China reacted this aggressively is the nature of Pelosi's visit. She is visiting multiple countries in China's periphery without visiting China. Just another clique formation attempt to exclude China. But this time it includes Taiwan itself, a place the US recognizes as a part of China. This is why I say show up or put up time. China shouldn't tolerate such behavior. Otherwise, other countries would look at China and see a country whose supposed province is a member of multiple organizations against it. I'll be dead honest. I wouldn't align with such a country.

 

[Sardaukar20]

India won’t invade except under one condition. That China is clearly losing a war with the US. Then the likelihood of them making a move is a lot higher

India listens to the MSM. Which will say that China is losing. So India is most likely going to invade. Just like it tried to when it heard from the MSM that China is dying from Covid in Wuhan. Better for the PLA to prepare for that.

 

[Abominable]

Using nuclear weapons against another nuclear armed state (which invariably results in very impressive escalation-ladder any% runs, no matter how limited the first instance) is a surefire way to destroy your own nation. As such, using them is always the worst possible option, and thus are only relevant, or even prudent, in a role limited to simply ensuring an adversary does not use them either. After all, the goal in a conflict is not to put the enemy in as bad of a position as possible, it is to put your nation in as advantageous of a position as possible. Far too often, I see folks mix the two up.

Why do you think that only applies when using nuclear weapons? Any military action against a nuclear armed state can escalate quickly.

All nuclear powers when faced with defeat or significant losses is going to resort to nuclear weapons to turn the tide, regardless of how it was incurred.

 

[Temstar]

Notice by Xiamen Air - due to flow control certain flights on 02/08 are subjected to adjustment, you can keep up to date via their official website or their Weixin or their phone app.

 

[watdahek]

Impersonating a government official, particularly ex-MSS would be a grave crime. If you have proof you should definitely report Mr Su to the authorities and get that 500k reward.

If you bothered with the links in my post, you would realize the guy never explicitly claimed to be working for Chinese intelligence, because he know that will get him into trouble. Making ambiguous and implicit claims on the other hand, is far less sensitive.