Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[FairAndUnbiased]

"Concerns grow over China nuclear reactors shrouded in mystery | Nuclear Energy News | Al Jazeera"

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The reason these breeder reactors are shrouded in mystery is that China, which had been transparent about its civilian plutonium programme until recently, stopped annual voluntary declarations to the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] on its stocks of civilian plutonium in 2017 and has not added the reactors to the agency’s database to date.

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It just requires 15-20 kg (vs. ~5 kg Pu). Most of the yield comes from the neutron activation of the U238 casing, so you just need a small fission explosion - any would do. It is bigger than a Pu weapon but it works. Most of the mass and volume of a weapon is in the electronics and conventional explosives, so you'll probably only see a 20-30% increase in size vs a Pu weapon overall. Maybe it'll reduce DF-41 MIRVs from 10x to 6x or something.

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compared to Russia with 28 million and global total of 60 million.

 

[Sleepyjam]

If Xi launched a limited punitive defensive campaign against India over Galwan, military prestige gained from that victory would have given him a good deal of political maneuvering rooms over this Pelosi's visit.

The dominating domestic narrative at time was that PRC chose restraint over Galwan because Taiwan was far more important. Now the Taiwan problem has come knocking.

No it would have led to a far more hostile Indian during Pelosi’s visit. It would result in a two front conflict. If all that is needed is military prestige than taking one of ROC’s islands would be enough.

 

[discspinner]

what I doesn't make sense for me, and which makes me worried. If Xi spoke with Biden, and was made clear that Biden could not stop Pelosi from going, then having the Foreign Ministry make further statements over the weekend to deter her from going only increases the costs of letting it slide. Also, the propaganda ministry does have a collar on Hu Xijin, or does it?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

I think the limiting factor for China's nuclear arsenal is not fissile material, but tritium output.

What?? All you need to make tritium is to irradiate lithium with neutrons in any nuclear reactor.

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It just requires 15-20 kg (vs. ~5 kg Pu). Most of the yield comes from the neutron activation of the U238 casing, so you just need a small fission explosion - any would do. It is bigger than a Pu weapon but it works. Most of the mass and volume of a weapon is in the electronics and conventional explosives, so you'll probably only see a 20-30% increase in size vs a Pu weapon overall. Maybe it'll reduce DF-41 MIRVs from 10x to 6x or something.

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compared to Russia with 28 million and global total of 60 million.

There's any number of ways to make a nuclear weapon, but I don't think China is or should be interested in third rate DIY stuff. It can just make weapons grade plutonium, it's not that difficult.

The SWU of enrichment capacity is good, but better is the excellent rate of growth it's undergone. Let's hope that continues.

 

[Temstar]

those people on that show are clowns, stop taking them seriously. What would China do if one of its military planes carrying one or more of its state leaders gets shot down intentionally? China will declare war, or not fly the plane into its death in the first place.
If China wants to go to war, it might as well just "go to war", that is to continue the Chinese Civil War, instead of pretending its act of war is not an act of war. "we shoot your military plane carrying your 3rd in line down on purpose, but we totally did not fire the first shot"

Sushifu has been caught multiply times making up shit, including his credentials, and it has been thoroughly discussed on Zhihu.

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It's fine to watch the show if you like it, but spreading misinformation perpetuated by that show is pretty annoying. It is like seeing people quote minni chan or Gordon Chang.

Impersonating a government official, particularly ex-MSS would be a grave crime. If you have proof you should definitely report Mr Su to the authorities and get that 500k reward.

 

[Kich]

Amazing!! In less than 12 hours, you guys managed to add 50 pages to this thread.

About to head out. By the time I return tomorrow, this thread will be at 200. Hopefully things don't become crazy to cause this thread to be locked up.

But if Pelosi plane gets shot down, this whole site might be.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

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China should send out fighters and when the US sends out their fighters to check on them, they'll all have anti-ship missiles hanging off their wings.

not scary enough because if targeted they'd have to ditch their payload. ASM too big, too clumsy. They should instead be carrying recon pods for ASBM/ship launched missiles and rest self defense missiles.

 

[9dashline]

Amazing!! In less than 12 hours, you guys managed to add 50 pages to this thread.

About to head out. By the time I return tomorrow, this thread will be at 200. Hopefully things don't become crazy to cause this thread to be locked up.

But if Pelosi plane gets shot down, this whole site might be.

Where is the telegram channel backup?

 

[siegecrossbow]

Where is the telegram channel backup?

I think I’ll go on living without the forum in my life when that happens. There are priorities.

 

[SteelBird]

Amazing!! In less than 12 hours, you guys managed to add 50 pages to this thread.

About to head out. By the time I return tomorrow, this thread will be at 200. Hopefully things don't become crazy to cause this thread to be locked up.

But if Pelosi plane gets shot down, this whole site might be.

I can't manage to read all posts because, like what you have said, too many. This is a very hot on-going topic and it leans more to politics than military. If it is not controlled well, it will soon turn into a bad flame war, country bashing or even F language calling.

Back to the topic, mouth-piece said that Pelosi's potential visit may happen between Aug-2 and Aug-5, the most potential date might be Aug-4, where she might stop for a few hours and then fly to her next destination. I wish her next destination would be hell.