Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[Temstar]

Supposedly further proof that RORO ships are mobilizing. 44k ton RORO ferry 中华复兴号 from Bohai Ferry Company have just started her engines and sailing out of Shantou harbor in Guangdong and is reporting to be headed for Xiamen, she will reach Xiamen by noon.

 

[vincent]

Surely not all of the fighters will take off from Fuzhou.

Free up the airspace

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

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[clockwork]

well, China only has enough Pu for ~1500 warheads total at the high end. Maybe for strong countervalue - as opposed to minimum countervalue - 1500 is sufficient. That means taking out some economic/population AND some conventional military sites. If you want parity or if estimated Pu production is on the low end, the only possibility is U only designs.

I've been searching for sources on existing Chinese designs, I can't find them, but I don't have an ideological aversion to simplified "inferior" designs. I've seen in my career that perfect is the enemy of good enough, shit happens and you just have to deal, and sometimes either an opportunity or crisis comes along and you just go with what you have.

I think 1500 may be the low end of enough for China, civilian only countervalue. 600 for the US (would completely wipe the country), 800 for India, and 100 for misc. Europe/Australia. I definitely want >2000 as a healthier number with a buffer for first strike losses/interception though. The problem with silo basing is if even one warhead is headed toward a silo field you have to instantly launch all the missiles there to prevent any from being lost (unless they can plot MIRV trajectory accurately enough to know the individual silo it's targeting?) So much for proportional retaliation

Even the current 350 would nearly full wipe the US tbh. FAS did an analysis and just 20 DF-5As airbursted would kill over 30 million Americans with about 50 million casualties IIRC. Vast majority of the survivors would die from no more McDonald's & Walmart.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554313866598928384

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

What if Pelosi is not landing in Taiwan itself but instead will meet with the separatist delegation of Taiwan on a US aircraft carrier? That's why the US CBG is there near the Taiwan straight. By doing this she avoids confrontations directly with the PRC but still get to speak to the Tsai terrorist government regime aboard US "soil" of an aircraft carrier.

Pelosi's plane is a modified Boeing 737-700, which is impossible to land on an aircraft carrier.

In that hypothetical scenario, the only way she (and the seperatist delegation) could board an aircraft carrier would be using C-2 Greyhound, helicopters, V-22 Osprey, or transfered from another ship or boat.

 

[Equation]

Pelosi's plane is a modified Boeing 737-700, which is impossible to land on an aircraft carrier.

The only way she (and the seperatist delegation) could board an aircraft carrier would be using the C-2 Greyhound, helicopters, V-22 Osprey, or transfered from another ship or boat.

Yup she can transport aboard an aircraft carrier in multiple ways after she landed on Malaysia.

 

[BoraTas]

Economic sanctions usually come in stages with increasing intensity and expanding scope similar to the current Russian sanctions. Even if the harshest sanctions are imposed from the get go (unlikely), the risk of actual involvement of US military could still serve as a further disincentive for China to invade Taiwan proper.

Tsai probably wouldn't give two thoughts about giving up Kinmen and Matsu islands due their indefensible nature located along mainland coast. Militarily strategic islands like Penghu (guarding Taiwan Strait entrance) would likely be defended with an actual fight (possibly at US request) regardless of Tsai's concern of its historical governance. Since Chinese public knows Kinmen and Matsu are easy and militarily insignificant prizes, would they be satisfy with just them when the inevitable high sanction costs are revealed?

Penghu is undefended right now. Degradation of ROCAF and ROCN will be a part of the campaign if Taiwan responds. What will the Chinese people think? They won't even care about sanctions. Believe me about this. Great powers' power depends on their credibility. It is the show up or put up time for the People's Republic.

Just asking everyone here. Am I the only person who thinks China's reaction will shock the world? I feel like we will watch a punitive campaign against Taiwan. The Chinese response has been very different this time.

 

[Temstar]

At least one other RORO ferry normally based in Bohai has sailed south. 35k ton 渤海钻珠号 left Tianjin on 26/07 and as of yesterday is also headed for Xiamen.

 

[Equation]

Nancy pansy is milking this moment for her party's campaign.