Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[yrydzd]

I don't think I stressed it enough, but the timing right now is perfect for China. The Soviet threat is still vivid to Europe and the old cold war fans haven't died out yet. So it didn't take the US too much effort to talk them into sanctioning Russia, but I bet they alreay regret it because of the jacked gas price and double-digit inflation. If this were the better days, the US wouldn't have much trouble either talking them into sanctioning China, but imagine how it can persuade the European countries to sanction their main gas supplier and their main merchandise supplier at the same time. A war with the US right now would give China the best chance to drive the US out of the first island chain and face little to none economical consequence.

Reuniting Taiwan was never about defeating Taiwan's millitary, it has always been about defeating the US. The Chinese leadership know this very well, and this Pelosi visit is a perfect excuse at a perfect time.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Ah, so that's why miniaturized missile warheads only use Pu? That's a nontrivial weight saving.

Yeah, take a look at the difference between the critical masses of U-235 and Pu-239 here

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[discspinner]

Who blinks? Taiwan blinks.

Since January, 2021, China's ultimatum has been a flyover of Taiwan airspace with PLAAF aircraft.

I see no reason why the ultimatum this time around would be different IF THAT IS INDEED what Xi wants to do.

If that is the case, then the decision to shoot first will lie on Taiwan's military.

There is absolutely no reason to fire the first shot. USAF will almost certainly have a 'no fire first' rules of engagement activated, as will PLAAF aircraft.

The pressure (the gun) will be placed at the head of the weakest side that has the most to lose in any escalation.

 

[Cyclist]

Some of you probably don't live in China or probably don't have family or friends who live in east coast of China so maybe not directly affected if war breakout. For me, who prefer peace (for now) has stakes because I have family and friends who live in both Mainland (in Fujian and Guangdong provinces) and Taiwan.

If this incident becomes hot war, then east coast of China will be in danger, considering all the USA military bases around China. At the moment, China doesn't have enough military power to threaten mainland USA. China needs to wait until it has at least 6-7 aircraft carriers and a lot of submarines (and maybe increase the nuclear bomb stockpiles) that can threaten USA mainland so if USA attack, China can cause serious damages to USA too. As of right now, China will end up destroying everything that it has built if the war breakout in this region. USA will have the last laugh again, like the repeat during World War II, where Asia and Europe was a warzone and mainland USA left unscatched.

IMHO, this visit by Nancy Pelosi is not really changing the status quo unless Taiwan declares independence. Even if Taiwan declares independence, China should use the least amount of military involvement like arming some insurgents in Taiwan and launch coup d'etat.

China needs to be patience and swallow its pride, if China can wait for 72 years (1949 - 2021) why not wait for another 12 years (1 aircraft carrier around 4 years, at the moment China has 3 aircraft carriers, 3 additional aircraft carriers take around 12 years). Lost a small battle (lost this propaganda game by USA politicians) and win a war (take back Taiwan at the right time chosen by China) is more important.

At the moment, the most painful response to USA should be the attack to its economy not military which USA still has quite advantage.

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."
"Engaging in battle without the assurance of victory is a foolish strategy."

 

[MrCrazyBoyRavi]

I think Nancy isn’t visiting Taiwan. Biden just conviniently claimed that Al-qaida leader is killed. That should be enough distraction to Nancy’s canceled visit to Taiwan.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Flying to Malaysia?

 

[Sleepyjam]

India has already been very hostile to PRC in spite of CCP's restraint. Did you forget all of those economic sanctions/investigations and fines Indian government imposed against Chinese businesses in India?

Taking Taiwanese held outlying islands has a much higher risk of US military involvement than fighting a defensive war against India in Tibet. I don't know about you, but I have no faith that India arm forces could make serious trouble for PRC after suffering a major defeat. Not to mention, there is always Pakistan.

The border situation with Indian is contained for now with no shots fired. China and India are still doing business despite the restrictions.
Actually the US would be more involved with India since it’s a sovereign nation and India would be guaranteed to use weapons and intel provided by the US in an ongoing war with China, a major protracted proxy war. US can’t do much if China takes one of Taiwan’s islands and Taiwan simply can’t fight a war of attrition like India. Don’t forget we are talking about fighting both at the same time in your scenario not one or the other. Also don‘t count on Pakistan’s current government.

 

[4channer]

No it would have led to a far more hostile Indian during Pelosi’s visit. It would result in a two front conflict. If all that is needed is military prestige than taking one of ROC’s islands would be enough.

This! But not just one. All of them! It is the best asymmetric response to this US made crisis.
Ask local garrisons to surrender, if they don't, unleash hell and conduct airborne and amphibious assaults.
It will be political and military defeat and humiliation for both, USA and Taiwan.
And greatest victory for China since

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.
It will show that the USA can't protect its "ally" (they failed to protect their Afghan, Syrian and Ukrainian "allies" as well recently). It will also show that peaceful independence of Taiwan is not an option. The only options are forceful or peaceful reintegration of the main island to China.

 

[Abominable]

Who blinks? Taiwan blinks.

Since January, 2021, China's ultimatum has been a flyover of Taiwan airspace with PLAAF aircraft.

I see no reason why the ultimatum this time around would be different IF THAT IS INDEED what Xi wants to do.

If that is the case, then the decision to shoot first will lie on Taiwan's military.

There is absolutely no reason to fire the first shot. USAF will almost certainly have a 'no fire first' rules of engagement activated, as will PLAAF aircraft.

The pressure (the gun) will be placed at the head of the weakest side that has the most to lose in any escalation.

That's still my prediction. Tsai rescinds the invitation and America saves face.

Look at the mess in the Ukraine, I doubt many Taiwanese want to have their arms and legs blown off for America. For the Ukrainians the war is good as they get to become economic migrants in other parts of Europe. Taiwanese have a first world standard of living and have no reason to turn into refugees.

Of course, America may force Taiwan to accept the delegation.

 

[Temstar]

This! But not just one. All of them! It is the best asymmetric response to this US made crisis.
Ask local garrisons to surrender, if they don't, unleash hell and conduct airborne and amphibious assaults.
It will be political and military defeat and humiliation for both, USA and Taiwan.
And greatest victory for China since

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

.
It will also show that peaceful independence of Taiwan is not an option. The only options are forceful or peaceful reintegration of the main island to China.

China would still get sanctioned most likely, why suffer the cost and not go all in in that case?
Anyway taking the outlying islands could cause an effect similar to 2014 take over of Crimea - it will make subsequent large scale military action more difficult because the opponent will be mobilizing more seriously.