Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[AssassinsMace]

not scary enough because if targeted they'd have to ditch their payload. ASM too big, too clumsy. They should instead be carrying recon pods for ASBM/ship launched missiles and rest self defense missiles.

China flying around their own country isn't illegal. The US shooting first is.

 

[discspinner]

So far this evening has been relatively quiet from the Chinese side.
Two reasons for this:
1. It has been early AM hours
2. Final ultimatums via the emergency military hotlines are being delivered

What is the US thinking? Poking Xi in the eye in his election year on the 95th anniversary of the founding of the PLA!?

 

[texx1]

No it would have led to a far more hostile Indian during Pelosi’s visit. It would result in a two front conflict. If all that is needed is military prestige than taking one of ROC’s islands would be enough.

India has already been very hostile to PRC in spite of CCP's restraint. Did you forget all of those economic sanctions/investigations and fines Indian government imposed against Chinese businesses in India?

Taking Taiwanese held outlying islands has a much higher risk of US military involvement than fighting a defensive war against India in Tibet. I don't know about you, but I have no faith that India arm forces could make serious trouble for PRC after suffering a major defeat. Not to mention, there is always Pakistan.

 

[henrik]

So far this evening has been relatively quiet from the Chinese side.
Two reasons for this:
1. It has been early AM hours
2. Final ultimatums via the emergency military hotlines are being delivered

What is the US thinking? Poking Xi in the eye in his election year on the 95th anniversary of the founding of the PLA!?

Missiles, fighters and bombers are on alert.

 

[Temstar]

I'm curious to hear if anyone was here during the 2016 SCS crisis, was the tone in media and on forum similar to today?

 

[Kich]

Before I depart, a little rambling on my part.

Everyone's pride is on the line here.

That's the nuclear question for this 4th Taiwan Crisis.

For the US, it is not fearing and cowering to the authoritarian govt. accross the Pacific that seeks to oppress the democratic small freedom island off its coast. That's the fairy tale version for the US. In truth, it's just another provocative step slowly taken by the US ever since it recognized the threat China poses to its hegemony. Taiwan is just a gate to blocking China's rise.

For China, this is another humiliation it continues to suffer at the hands of their rivals and sometimes from the white-man or the West as they are known today. For the past 20 years, her citizens have been told of the coming rejuvenation and the rise of the former empire. Their time is near and even to some it's here already. Many members here even believe they are ready to take on the US.

The only way this ends if one side blinks and backs down and takes a hit to their pride. Who will it be? I don't know.

 

[SteelBird]

A paragraph quoted from CNN article:

"There is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit, consistent with long standing US policy, into some sort of crisis or conflict, or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan Strait," National Security Council Strategic Coordinator for Communications John Kirby told reporters on Monday.

It's like saying "I sleep with your wife but I don't have an affair with her, so don't escalate". Sh*t!

 

[Lime]

India and China is country to country relationship.
China and Taiwan is a civil war problem.
Different situation needs different strategy.

 

[clockwork]

It just requires 15-20 kg (vs. ~5 kg Pu).

Ah, so that's why miniaturized missile warheads only use Pu? That's a nontrivial weight saving.

 

[Nilou]

I think China should just do a flyover of Taiwan with SEAD aircraft if it really comes down to it.

Maybe combine Taiwan's ADIZ with the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone.