Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[ember]

Threaten to bomb TSMC plants if Pelosi lands in Taiwan. Good idea or bad idea?

 

[daifo]

Threaten to bomb TSMC plants if Pelosi lands in Taiwan. Good idea or bad idea?

Where would China get advanced chips?

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Stop this coping. Pelosi is doing this because she knows China won't do anything because they've issued a billion threats before this and has not followed through on those threats. This time won't be different. She will be the first speaker to visit Taiwan in 25 years and it looks good for her legacy. Poking China in the eye is really fun for American elites, too.

Like I said just a dumb speculation on my part for levity.

 

[Biscuits]

The best way China can retaliate is by arming Russia with HJ-12 missiles. These will make American war effort in Ukraine very costly.

This probably belongs in the Ukraine war thread more, but how exactly can HJ-12 greatly benefit Russian war effort?

In theory they're great, longer range, better warhead, lighter missile than Javelin with the same top attack capabilities.

But the allied forces are not facing Ukrainian tank formations, or only very rarely so. They're mostly fighting at requisitioned civilian vehicles, legacy apcs, SPGs, and towed guns. Hitting BMP-1s with HJ-12 is such an insane overkill.

What would help Russia more would be leasing AEW drones and deploying Beidou guided PHL-16 batteries with the 300km rockets, as well as providing its 10cm accuracy satellite guidence to Russian forces.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

This probably belongs in the Ukraine war thread more, but how exactly can HJ-12 greatly benefit Russian war effort?

In theory they're great, longer range, better warhead, lighter missile than Javelin with the same top attack capabilities.

But the allied forces are not facing Ukrainian tank formations, or only very rarely so. They're mostly fighting at requisitioned civilian vehicles, legacy apcs, SPGs, and towed guns. Hitting BMP-1s with HJ-12 is such an insane overkill.

What would help Russia more would be leasing AEW drones and deploying Beidou guided PHL-16 batteries with the 300km rockets, as well as providing its 10cm accuracy satellite guidence to Russian forces.

That content does not belong to the War in the Ukraine thread. Please don’t encourage him.

 

[Yommie]

Where would China get advanced chips?

China can make do with domestic chips. It is Taiwan that will lose without TSMC.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Threaten to bomb TSMC plants if Pelosi lands in Taiwan. Good idea or bad idea?

Absolutely bad idea.

This would only make China the villian in the eyes across the world. Remember that TSMC is a very important part in the global semiconductor chain. A lot of industries across the world (China included) depend on TSMC being functional to run their factories. How do you think the world would respond to such specific threats coming from China?

If those TSMC plants are to be destroyed, it would be better for them to be destroyed by Taiwanese themselves:

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That way, China would carry less burden of the blame, and would have plausible reasons for denial of responsibility, as in "I did not destroy those TSMC plants! I want to capture the plants intact! It was the Taiwanese who destroyed them!"

 

[Lime]

I hope China and US can cooperate with each other to drive the world out of economic crisis.
But the Taiwan problem is an obstacle between China-US relationship for long time.
Maybe it's time to eliminate the obstacle by a special event.

 

[Yommie]

Absolutely bad idea.

This would only make China the villian in the eyes across the world. Remember that TSMC is a very important part in the global semiconductor chain. A lot of industries across the world (China included) depend on TSMC being functional to run their factories. How do you think the world would respond to such threats coming from China?

If those TSMC plants are to be destroyed, it would be better for those plants to be destroyed by Taiwanese themselves:

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That way, China would carry less burden of the blame, and would have plausible room for denial of responsibility, as in "I did not destroy those TSMC plants! I intend to capture the plants intact! It was the Taiwanese who destroyed them!"

They cannot blame China for destruction of TSMC. China warned Pelosi not to go to Taiwan. China's warning fell on deaf ears. In China face is very important. Slapping Chinese in the face is the biggest insult that cannot be tolerated.

 

[solarz]

2. If the Chinese government really intend on stopping Pelosi's plane from landing in Taipei, I believe that the PLA should make sure that Pelosi's plane can leave the Taiwan area and not come back - and NOT shooting the her plane down.

Personally, I don't see how the pilots tasked with flying Pelosi's plane would dare to continue the flight to Taipei when fighters from the PLAAF and USAF + ROCAF are dueling at each other just around them. Remember what @Patchwork_Chimera said - Pelosi's plane would high-tail out of the region in case any shooting starts.

Even if Pelosi is a daredevil, somehow (which she isn't - she has never been in the military in her entire life), the White House and especially the Pentagon would intervene on her behalf. Why? At least we have someone like General Milley who is clear-headed enough than many of those hawkish politicians in DC. That's also why the Pentagon said that Pelosi's visit is not a good idea in the first place.

As long as the PLA can cause some chaos around Taiwan when Pelosi is about to visit (such as engaging USAF and/or ROCAF fighter planes, conducting extra large scale military exercises right in the expected flight paths of her plane, firing Dong Feng missiles into waters near Taiwan, etc), then I believe the most striaghtforward protocol for the pilots onboard would be to fly Pelosi's plane towards Okinawa, Yokota or even Guam immediately. Remember that it is the responsibility and priority of the US military to make sure that Pelosi is safe and sound. Whether or not she can land in Taipei and meet English Vegetable is a different matter entirely.

Besides, I think that even if fighter planes from either or both sides got damaged and/or shot down, it would not lead to immediate escalation into a full-scale war, unless either side does the escalation first. If my intuition is correct based on the responses from the White House up till now, neither Beijing nor Washington DC wants to escalate this into a full-scale war. Phones in the Pentagon and/or the August 1st Building would ring like no tomorrow as soon as the confrontation begins, or in case the first shootings were reported.

Does it really need to be air-to-air shooting? I reckon the PLA could light up Pelosi' plane with some HQ-9.