Why test a nuclear weapon in China? Test it near Taiwan.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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I agree that Washington really boxed Beijing into a corner this time. But Beijing doesn't have to respond immediately. The current force posture gives Beijing little advantage in a fight, and Washington knows it. Wang Jisi correctly argues that Washington is trying to seduce Beijing into a fight before the PLA completes its modernization or China cutting its dependence on Western high-tech products. If China were to attack in 2027 or later, it would be too late for Washington or the Anglos. For Washington, the containment of China means now or never. For Beijing, maybe it should let Pelosi pass but take her trespass as a given right to retaliate against Taiwan as a time of Beijing's own choosing (could be tomorrow, or could be several years down the road).
China doesn't do nuclear testing anymore.
China has no first use for a reason. They always reserved the idea to destroy enemies using conventional force only, to minimize the chance of MAD. Nuclear threats for indiscriminate destruction isn't what China does, China does highly precise conventional threats.
For this case, it is likely confirmed that China will intercept the plane, but unless US military enters Chinese airspace, they'll probably not fire on it. They may fire on ROC fighters if ROC sends fighters. More important counteractions are seizing territory across the straits, making patrols over Taiwan routine, declaring partial sea/air blockade etc.
It's actually extremely easy for the government to save face, they just need to act appalled and then raise the budget like how Scholz in Germany acted when his nation was caught completely pants down from Ukraine being invaded. They'll win sympathy points from the population, and if Xi then promises remilitarization, then it could even improve his chances to get a third term.
It would need to be Mirved and overfly Conus.... an high alt detonation in Asia is self deafeating... have to threaten the homeland to be effective deterrence warning
Which is why the US is going forward with this even if China were to completely back down etc.... war is happening regardless....
The problem for Xi is that he has too many enemies. Both the financial sector and well-connected private businesses hate him and would seek any methods possible to ruin his credibility and remove him. Only the PLA and folks at the bottom of China's society appear to be Xi's staunch supporters. Trying to be a true Marxist and get things done to make society more equal means being hated by your country's entrenched elites (whose main goal is to protect their privileges and property rights).
Therefore, I worry that Washington really got Xi this time by backing him into a corner. He has no good options.
Intercept Pelosi's plane.
That is the one and best option.
How the intercept goes, that is a key question.
China has to do that, regardless who is in power. An unfriendly nation flies military jets towards your border, no one sits around and does nothing.
If there is an intercept, there is always a chance she gets shot down.
(Provided that Pelosi actually comes. I still don't think she coming. Chicken hawks tend to be like that.)
Then by your implication, Xi is just a useful tool for the U.S. interest; their American candidate a.k.a. Manchurian candidate for the U.S. huh...We didn't know that after all these years, behind all that Xi's rhetoric and accomplishments he has been working his way to the top to destroy the very country he swore to protect? Why because his family was purged by Mao, where Xi was pushed to disavow his entire family even his own father? Dang!! That would be a hell of a coup and big win for America. If that's even remotely possible in alternative universe it's all over. But good thing we are not in that universe.
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