Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
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Can someone explain to me why this is considered to be such a big issue when Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan in 1997 and it wasn't considered by the PRC to be some huge affront? I remember in late that year Jiang Zemin actually visited the US, had a state dinner with Bill Clinton, and put on a tricolor hat. The only thing is that Pelosi is in the same party as Biden whereas Gingrich was a Republican, but in terms of official US titles they were both Speaker of the House, and Gingrich was as much a member of the US government and in line for succession as Pelosi is.

Newt Gringrich was from the Republican Party, and his visit to Taiwan was a direct response to Bill Clinton getting cozy with the PRC. Pelosi is from the same party as Biden and her visit is seen as having been given official endorsement by the incumbent President.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
Newt Gringrich was from the Republican Party, and his visit to Taiwan was a direct response to Bill Clinton getting cozy with the PRC. Pelosi is from the same party as Biden and her visit is seen as having been given official endorsement by the incumbent President.
I understand that, but the difference between having a state dinner & putting on a tricolor hat vs. war seems rather drastic if the only difference is the political party of the official visiting. There seems to be some misunderstanding that the President doesn't control the Speaker of the House. He has more control over a member of the Executive Branch who is a Republican than a member of Congress who is a fellow Democrat.

Also, government visits don't set state policy. Just because some US politician visits somewhere, even the President, doesn't mean the US recognizes that area as independent or anything.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I think F-35s may still be grounded due to the ejection seat issue. However, some may have been cleared to fly because I've read that it is a relatively easy fix (explosive bolt replacement). However, that has not been announced yet.

I’m 99% sure that was Mark Milley’s final throw of the dice to force Pelosi to reconsider (the report is probably not an outright fabrication, but I very much doubt the issue would have been deemed serious enough to ground the fleet at any other time). F35s might be officially grounded, but in reality they will launch when and where needed.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
There seems to be some misunderstanding that the President doesn't control the Speaker of the House
There is no misunderstanding here, thank you very much.

Biden, the commander in chief, allows Pelosi to use military assets for her travel to Taiwan.
Couple that with Biden "misspeaking" multiple times about the US defending Taiwan, and we can reasonably conclude that Pelosi has Biden's de-facto support.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
And US will drastically escalate if Pelosi is killed. No nukes were used back in the Cold War. No nukes are used now even though Ukraine has killed tens of thousands of Russian troops, mostly with US supplied weapons and intelligence.
In Ukraine the conflict is between Russia and the Ukraine. If NATO entered the war nuclear weapons would be used, as Putin has repeatedly said. In Vietnam America fought Vietnamese with Russian and Chinese weapons and intelligence.

Neither situation is comparable to what America is threatening right now. When a U2 was shot down over the USSR, did America "drastically escalate"?
No, knowing who controls world media today, China will be painted as the bad buy. People would be crying bloody murder, and there would likely be sanctions and condemnations. China's allies would likely want to remain out of this mess or put out symbolic statements that don't mean nothing.
More deluded American centric thinking. CNN and Fox news play no role in setting international law. China already is the bad guy according to American media.

As for sanctions, good luck with that. If anything China imposing sanctions on America is more likely than the other way round. Nothing in the west gets made without Chinese components.
Can someone explain to me why this is considered to be such a big issue when Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan in 1997 and it wasn't considered by the PRC to be some huge affront? Not only did Gingrich went, but he brought a huge entourage with a dozen members of Congress. I remember in late that year Jiang Zemin actually visited the US, had a state dinner with Bill Clinton, and put on a tricolor hat. The only thing is that Pelosi is in the same party as Biden whereas Gingrich was a Republican, but in terms of official US titles they were both Speaker of the House, and Gingrich was as much a member of the US government and in line for succession as Pelosi is.
Simply, China is stronger now and can defend its borders today in a way it couldn't in 1997.

A country can be as inconsistent in its border entry policies as it likes. America can't use prior examples of border violations to continue violating China's borders.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
If the PLA allows Pelosi to land then the CCP has pretty much torpedoed its legitimacy...

View attachment 94624
Xi is toast (and CPC's legitimacy heavily damaged) if Pelosi lands in Taiwan without extremely serious counteractions
Indeed, the only thing the CPC seriously fear is internal division and strife, and that is what it would be risking if Pelosi successfully lands in Taiwan.
I guess it's settled then. I look forward to seeing news of Pelosi's death shortly.
 
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