Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[Suetham]

I cannot verify the authenticity of this tweet that has a Telegram post as a primary source, but I will post it in case some colleagues have more information about it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553390097558474752

Other:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553395198964662273

 

[siegecrossbow]

I cannot verify the authenticity of this tweet that has a Telegram post as a primary source, but I will post it in case some colleagues have more information about it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553390097558474752

Video is not recent since F-35s have been grounded.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

IDK what they're thinking. They're struggling already with Russia Ukraine conflict. They have set themselves up to be, then exposed themselves as, extremely fragile. Even the tiniest little decrease in the global supply chain throughput due to say, export taxes or increased customs times, could crash their economies.

 

[siegecrossbow]

IDK what they're thinking. They're struggling already with Russia Ukraine conflict. They have set themselves up to be, then exposed themselves as, extremely fragile. Even the tiniest little decrease in the global supply chain throughput due to say, export taxes or increased customs times, could crash their economies.

 

[Abominable]

I don't personally anticipate a wider conflagration, but I don't want there to be any illusions that we're not concerned about this in DC, or that we aren't rating Pelosi's hell% speedrun attempt as sufficiently destabilizing to necessitate such force protection measures.

LOL

This is especially aimed at those who consider us to be an unthinking, malevolent actor that is just trying to stir the pot without considering the PRC's position. Geopolitics is a lot more complicated than that, and there are plenty of us both in the DOD and adjacent-to who do not want this sort of thing to occur.

Which begs the question, what is America playing at?

PRC is unlikely to shoot down Pelosi's jet or invade Taiwan over her visit. People's daily just published an article under Zhong sheng (钟声) that is calling for more dialogue between US and PRC in order to avoid miscalculation. The language is arguably mild. Most importantly, it didn't contain the key warning phase "Don't say I didn't warn you" (勿谓言之不预也). a phase used to warn India before Sino-Indian war and Vietnam before Sino-Vietnamese war.


Handling U.S.-China relations, both parties must strengthen communication to avoid miscalculation



China and the United States should put the fundamental interests of the two peoples, world peace and stability, development and prosperity first, adhere to the direction of each other, maintain dialogue and communication, strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation, effectively manage differences, avoid artificially creating new contradictions and difficulties, and handle Sino-U.S. relations with a highly responsible attitude toward history.

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Subscription is unfortunately required to access the full article from People's Daily official weibo account.

Here is another link from sina where you can read the full article.

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This article in no way contradicts the earlier statement. Asking for peace between China and America doesn't mean America will be allowed to violate Chinese territory.

 

[siegecrossbow]

LOL

Which begs the question, what is America playing at?

This article in no way contradicts the earlier statement. Asking for peace between China and America doesn't mean America will be allowed to violate Chinese territory.

What makes you think it is something America is playing at?

 

[clockwork]

Well, the question being begged is malformed. It's not "America" that's playing at anything. It's a rather small subset of the civilian government that wants to score good boy points with China hawks now that the issue has been made contentious. Most of us in the DOD-sphere very much do not want this to go through, as there is literally no benefit to a provocation like this.

What's your best guess on would happen if they actually shoot her down? I doubt that'll happen, but am curious how it'd play out if it does. I doubt it'd escalate to full scale war even if so.

 

[Suetham]

Thanks!!!

Another:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553401425396436994

 

[Abominable]

What makes you think it is something America is playing at?

Americans have made lots of blunders in recent years, but they've all been reactive. This is the first time in recent memory America is proactively doing something that is going to have consequences regardless of the outcome.

I also find it hard to swallow the republican leaning American military establishment that has never seen a war it didn't like have suddenly become pacifists.

I'm starting to think Biden is trying to pull a Putin, start a war to improve his ratings.

 

[texx1]

This article in no way contradicts the earlier statement. Asking for peace between China and America doesn't mean America will be allowed to violate Chinese territory.

I see it as an attempt of tension de-escalation which reduces the probability of war over the visit.