Ukrainian War Developments

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Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
What you suggested is a good alternative to the full takeover of Ukraine. It has the following drawbacks.

If West Ukraine is left as a rump state to fend for itself, you will bet that there will continue to be Western meddling. Russia will be powerless to stop this without going to war again which would be bad for its economy.

Western Ukraine is sparsely populated so it would not be so hard to rule if a Ukrainian arm forces friendly to Russia is established. This allow Russia to take action if they don't like what they see in the Western Rump region.

Western Ukraine is a huge producer of agricultural products so if the Russians can control that indirectly by controlling all of Ukraine, that would add to their future negotiating power with the West.

Once they take all of Eastern Ukraine and the coast, taking the remainder of Ukraine is quite easy and I feel keeping the entire Ukraine is more beneficial to Russia in the longer term.
"...the remainder of Ukraine is quite easy..." I hope for their sake that the Russians do not have the same attitude and assumption that you have. It is such extreme hubris that led to poor execution in the North of Ukraine and heavy casualties suffered by Russian forces in the first week of the war...
 

Intrepid

Major
"Ukraine has claimed that President Vladimir Putin has fired eight top Russian army generals. It has also been claimed that he has also expressed displeasure over the Russian intelligence agency FSB’s failure to gather information and poor strategy. However, both these claims could not be independently verified. Ukraine alleges that the Russian army is failing one front after the other in their country."

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FriedButter

Brigadier
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West made a mistake by promising NATO membership to Ukraine: EU foreign policy chief Borrell​


"I am ready to admit that we have made a number of mistakes and that we have lost the opportunity of Russia's rapprochement with the West … There are moments that we could have done better, there are things that we proposed and then could not implement, such as the promise that Ukraine and Georgia would become part of NATO …I think it's a mistake to make promises you can't deliver," Borrell told the TF1 broadcaster.
 

Intrepid

Major
"Thousands of Russians streamed out of train stations and airport terminals in Europe this week, leaving behind a home country that is increasingly isolated from the rest of the world and a government that is moving to stamp out dissent.

Many did not book a return ticket.

Some expressed fury at Russian President Vladimir Putin for the invasion of Ukraine. Others said they were ashamed. Several were afraid to talk."

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horse

Colonel
Registered Member
when America bombed the Ho Chi Minh Trail, they bombed all the way into Laos and Cambodia. I doubt Russia will bomb convoys within Poland or Baltic countries. this is a crucial part of the war: how will the West keep the Ukrainians supplied.

It seems all for show, this re-supply of the Ukrainians by the west.

They have to drive a truck to troops who could be surrounded.

The facts on the ground seem to suggest these promises of supplies are just grandstanding.
 

Intrepid

Major
"Until recently, it was widely expected that Belarusian troops would also be joining Russian forces in the invasion. However, there are signs of a rebellion within the ranks of the Belarusian military.

Franak Viačorka, an adviser to exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya,
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that several senior military officers have resigned, fled the country, and contacted him and other opposition figures living abroad.

According to Viačorka, “there is a high degree of demoralization” among both officers and conscripts. He claimed that many “are fleeing the country’s borders en masse to any destination possible.” Viačorka added, “We have seen growing pressure from commanders of military units not to intervene in the fighting in Ukraine. There are officers who took sick leave and others who have asked to end their contracts with the military.”

As a result of this opposition, Viačorka reported that Belarusian units have yet to enter Ukrainian territory and units stationed adjacent to the border with Ukraine have been returned to their bases. “It seems the decision to involve the Belarusian military in fighting was changed as a result of pressure from top brass and the refusal by soldiers to fight,” he claimed."

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