Ukrainian War Developments

[Weaasel]

Only Russian absorption or total annexation is a 'permanent solution'. A "paper treaty" formalizing neutrality is a useless formality as nations can break international law anytime they want. It's only 'legally-binding' to extent either party respects the treaty. Russia needs a permanent veto over Ukraine foreign policy, where a paper treaty is as good as toilet paper in this day and age as nobody respects the international law anymore.

Using this logic, Russia should have invaded Poland, Baltic states, Hungary, and Romania to forestall "long term loss of strategic autonomy" because NATO troops directly bordered Kaliningrad and region near Saints Petersburg, and even closer to Moscow than Ukrainian border in 2003.

BUT.... Russia was weak back then. Now it's stronger. So it's ultimately a "Might makes Right" argument right, not some 5D chess strategic calculus about losing autonomy, Russia lost autonomy when Baltic states joined and NATO shared a border with Russia in 2003.



Sometimes nations do things against their economic interest because of perceived security interests. So it's ironic that you say US is throwing good money after bad, but somehow Russia is getting good money for a useless paper treaty neutrality. Russia needs to annex or install a puppet regime to make all these sanctions worth it. A paper neutrality treaty is a useless formality without regime change. Russia needs to topple the regime to have permanent long-term security.

Russia has indicated that it is willing to accept significantly less than what you assert here...

 

[Temstar]

It's fair game. West escalated the war already by sending more weapons into war zone and needlessly causing more casualties while supporting a comedian leader who don't mind more and more civilians losses by arming them with weapons, all for the bidding of his masters. This is without even taking into account nazis among the Ukrainian forces.

Speaking of Nazis among the Ukrainian forces:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502657144088375300

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502656964299575296

 

[lube]

Russia has indicated that it is willing to accept significantly less than what you assert here...

They say this, but the Ukrainians will never accept formally recognizing the loss of Crimea and the Donbass.

Unless Kyiv is completely destroyed like Gronzy, but then will some paper promise of not joining NATO matter any more?
Russian demands are in bad faith, or they're smoking something.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Russian demands are in bad faith

Ring-ding-ding. "Bad faith" is Russia's middle name, which is exactly as it should be. This is solely so Russian propaganda has some talking points to disseminate and paint Ukrainians as unreasonable. In truth, Russia is going to grind Ukraine down to a very fine powder and will accept nothing less than total surrender.

 

[LesAdieux]

It's fair game. West escalated the war already by sending more weapons into war zone and needlessly causing more casualties while supporting a comedian leader who don't mind more and more civilians losses by arming them with weapons, all for the bidding of his masters. This is without even taking into account nazis among the Ukrainian forces.

when America bombed the Ho Chi Minh Trail, they bombed all the way into Laos and Cambodia. I doubt Russia will bomb convoys within Poland or Baltic countries. this is a crucial part of the war: how will the West keep the Ukrainians supplied.

 

[Abominable]

But a treaty with a puppet regime won't be recognised by many nations and least the Ukrainians themselves.

What are you saying? That the Ukrainians won't recognise a government they elect themselves?

Regime change will only be a short term solution, more fuel tor instability (inside in Russia as well) and a few years or some decades down the road, a resentful and independent Ukraine will remerge.

My proposal wasn't regime change, I'm saying Ukraine can pick the exact same government as they have today if they want to.

As for future hostility, I'm not sure about that. Defeated countries often become friendly to their conquerors. Look at Germany and Japan's attitudes to America today.

But if you're right and they are prepared to go hostile in a few decades, special military operation round two will be even more one sided than this one.

In the meantime, most neighbouring countries will be constantly reminded of the very real threat and become more and more antagonistic towards Russia.
I might be wrong but that's usually how these things worked out in history.
Putin might not care though.

You mean more antagonistic then they are already? What do you think they will do?

 

[Temstar]

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Straight from the horse's mouth, disregard all talks of "China not sharing aircraft parts" and "China sending aid to Ukraine, that must mean they are against Russia"

 

[KYli]

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[tokenanalyst]

"China sending aid to Ukraine, that must mean they are against Russia"

Since when sending humanitarian aid to people in distress means that you support one cause or another?
Only mainstream Western media will take a good humanitarian gesture from China to play their politics bullcrap.

"China not sharing aircraft parts"

Is understandable because those companies had to made risk assessment before, once that is done the parts could shipped in the near future. There is nothing to see here.

 

[FADH1791]

when America bombed the Ho Chi Minh Trail, they bombed all the way into Laos and Cambodia. I doubt Russia will bomb convoys within Poland or Baltic countries. this is a crucial part of the war: how will the West keep the Ukrainians supplied.

Pretty much. And we saw how the US failed to win in Vietnam. NATO can arm a Ukrainian insurgency for a long time. People forget what makes a successful insurgency is the insurgents getting outside support from neighboring nations. They can retreat to those countries to rest, rearm and recruit to continue the insurgency. Once insurgents get help from neighboring nations it’s hard to beat it. The US wasn’t able to defeat the Taliban for this reason as Pakistan helped the Taliban. Same with the Shia miltias in Iraq. They had help from Iran. That’s why it doesn’t make sense to occupy all of Ukraine. Just partition it between east and west.