Ukrainian War Developments

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Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
There is no doubt if Putin succeeds in permanently preventing NATO from absorbing Ukraine,
Only Russian absorption or total annexation is a 'permanent solution'. A "paper treaty" formalizing neutrality is a useless formality as nations can break international law anytime they want. It's only 'legally-binding' to extent either party respects the treaty. Russia needs a permanent veto over Ukraine foreign policy, where a paper treaty is as good as toilet paper in this day and age as nobody respects the international law anymore.
then the worst the west can do to Russia in retaliation will pale in comparison to the value of the long term loss of Russia strategic autonomy the war over Ukraine forestalled.
Using this logic, Russia should have invaded Poland, Baltic states, Hungary, and Romania to forestall "long term loss of strategic autonomy" because NATO troops directly bordered Kaliningrad and region near Saints Petersburg, and even closer to Moscow than Ukrainian border in 2003.

BUT.... Russia was weak back then. Now it's stronger. So it's ultimately a "Might makes Right" argument right, not some 5D chess strategic calculus about losing autonomy, Russia lost autonomy when Baltic states joined and NATO shared a border with Russia in 2003.


So further acts of spite by the US is merely the self-indulgent fool’s way of getting transient satisfaction from an unthinking sense of doing something by throwing good money after the bad.
Sometimes nations do things against their economic interest because of perceived security interests. So it's ironic that you say US is throwing good money after bad, but somehow Russia is getting good money for a useless paper treaty neutrality. Russia needs to annex or install a puppet regime to make all these sanctions worth it. A paper neutrality treaty is a useless formality without regime change. Russia needs to topple the regime to have permanent long-term security.
 

enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
Watch the Russian UNSC briefing if you haven't. None of the pathogens that Russia is claiming Americans were developing are endemic to the Ukraine. In fact localised epidemics of diseases in the vicinity of the labs are what brought Russian attention to it, they claim they've been monitoring it since 2014.

Of course, this could all just be Russian disinformation and the labs have no military purpose. In that case America will have no problem having them investigated by an independent international body. Or they could also answer some of the specific allegations, such as were US military personnel ever assigned to these labs, and if so, why? Or whether there was a link between the pathogens being stored in the labs and outbreaks in Ukraine? That could even be done domestically in the setting of something like a Senate committee. It would be easy debunking of Russian propaganda and would restore some American credibility both to their own people and internationally. But they won't.

As the saying goes, it takes a thief to catch a thief. The Russians have a biological weapons programme of their own and know exactly what to look for and what to ask.

Ah the plot thickens.... It shouldn't be difficult to get some local politicians in other countries to ask the question why is there US military run bioresearch labs in their country

China and Russia should make this stinks to high hell
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
When all Ukrainians have fled, been captured or killed, the war will be over. Who wants that, who likes that?
No one wants that... it's just nonsense to resist and continue that stupid war for what Putin ask: neutrality, Crimea that was already lost and the two east provinces special positions in Ukraine. I don't think the cost to continue is worth it... beside pleasing Nato and the US to weaken Russia. It will end with east of Dnieper and south of Ukraine all the way to Moldova Transnistria annexed at this rate... Maybe would have been way better to sign neutrality before all of this began.
 
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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
My take on the Tu-141.

I'll be honest it's quite small RCS wise. 0.38 sqm. and launch position from Western Ukraine seems very likely

Still probably more than a cruise missile... so heart of Nato can be hit easily with preemptive cruise missile strike more or less. Russian can probably get the same treatment. Lots of spending on anti-missiles warfare and protection for more or less nothing. They had a bunch of awacs in the air and they just let it through like nothing. Would be interesting to know if they where prepared to stop it farther than Romania and Hungary ?
 
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