Ukrainian War Developments

[Fede_LV]

Copy-pasted from another forum I follow elsewhere to get things back on track...the military aspect.

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today's ISW assessment:

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Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko

March 3, 4:00 pm EST

The Russian military has continued its unsuccessful attempts to encircle Kyiv and capture Kharkiv. The Russians continued to attack piecemeal, committing a few battalion tactical groups at a time rather than concentrating overwhelming force to achieve decisive effects. Russian commanders appear to prefer opening up new lines of advance for regiment-sized operations but have been unable to achieve meaningful synergies between efforts along different axes toward the same objectives. They have also continued conducting operations in southern Ukraine along three diverging axes rather than concentrating on one or attempting mutually supporting efforts. These failures of basic operational art—long a strong suit of the Soviet military and heavily studied at Russian military academies—remain inexplicable as does the Russian military’s failure to gain air superiority or at least to ground the Ukrainian Air Force. The Russian conventional military continues to underperform badly, although it may still wear down and defeat the conventional Ukrainian military by sheer force of numbers and brutality. Initial indications that Russia is mobilizing reinforcements from as far away as the Pacific Ocean are concerning in this respect. Those indications also suggest, however, that the Russian General Staff has concluded that the forces it initially concentrated for the invasion of Ukraine will be insufficient to achieve Moscow’s military objectives.

Operations to envelop Kyiv remain Russia’s main effort. Russian troops are also continuing three supporting efforts, one to seize Kharkiv, one to take Mariupol and secure the “land bridge” connecting Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, and one to secure Kherson and set conditions for a drive west toward Mykolayiv and Odesa.

The Russian attack on Kyiv likely consists of a main effort aimed at enveloping and ultimately encircling the city from the west and a supporting effort along the axes from Chernihiv and Sumy to encircle it from the east.

Russian forces in the south resumed offensive operations toward Mykolayiv on March 3 after securing Kherson on March 2, but do not appear to pose an imminent danger to Odesa. Russian forces likely seek to force Mariupol to capitulate by destroying critical civilian infrastructure and killing civilians to create a humanitarian catastrophe—an approach Russian forces have repeatedly taken in Syria.[1]

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces opened a new line of advance from Belarus south toward Zhytomyr Oblast, west of Kyiv, as Russian forces attempting to encircle Kyiv from the northwest were driven further west by determined Ukrainian resistance and counterattacks. Russian forces will struggle to complete an encirclement of Kyiv at all if they have to advance along ring roads as far from the city center as those they are now using.
• Russian forces on the east bank of the Dnipro River remain unable to secure the important town of Chernihiv or to break through Ukrainian defenses in the northeastern outskirts of Kyiv.
• Russian ground forces have remained relatively static near Kharkiv as Russian artillery, air, and missile bombardments wreak devastation in the city. The Ukrainian military indicates that a regiment-sized Russian formation will try to envelop or bypass Kharkiv in the coming days. Similar Russian attempts at such operations elsewhere in Ukraine render the success of such an undertaking at that scale unlikely.
• Russian forces are attempting once again to open a line of advance through northern Luhansk Oblast, possibly to assist efforts at Kharkiv or, as the Ukrainian General Staff assesses, to drive on Dnipro and Zaprozhya. The Russian forces currently reported as engaging in that drive are far too small to attack either city successfully and are probably insufficient to sustain a long drive on their own.
• Russian troops have surrounded Mariupol and are attacking it brutally to compel its capitulation or destroy it.
• The mayor of Kherson conditionally surrendered to the Russians, allowing Russian forces to renew their advance on Mykolayiv, which they have done. The Ukrainian military nevertheless reportedly defeated an attempted Russian air assault to take an airfield near Mykolayiv.

So the russian armed forces have a 40 mile long "traffic jam" of units outside Kiev but they don´t get blown out to kingdom come even though, according to this article, Russians have failed to " gain air superiority"???. Ha!

 

[Abominable]

What kind of charges would they face? Because I can’t think of any. Tho I wonder if they will be sent to a penal colony for a very long time.

Fighting for a fascist regime as a mercenary. I think the punishment will depend on how pissed off the Russians are and how bloody the war has been.

According to Tass, Russian MOD spokesman just officially announced that foreign mercenaries captured will not have POW status and will face criminal charges.

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Americans are sending in SpecOps in ukrainian 'foreign legion' livery; effectively, they are sending in Sardaukar in Harkonnen livery.

Also it's clear from the COVID-19 debacle that the West doesn't give a damn about the lives nor livelihoods of its own citizens so sending its own people into the meat grinder of ukraine is par for the course.

Regarding ceasefires, if we observe the lessons of Syria, NATO- aligned assets tend to use ceasefires to move reinforcements into position; when you have the initiative you ought to attack and destroy the enemy in totality.

It has been the case since day one. There's no such thing as a "foreign legion" between countries, you are a mercenary. You can only fight for the country you are a citizen of or a country you reside in, or if a government is sending you as a serving soldier.

There have been situations where an entire army has surrendered rather than fight after being told they would not be elgible under the Geneva Convention, and for good reason.

 

[ArmchairAnalyst]

So the russian armed forces have a 40 mile long "traffic jam" of units outside Kiev but they don´t get blown out to kingdom come even though, according to this article, Russians have failed to " gain air superiority"???. Ha!

From the more detailed report in the link:

Ukrainian Airspace Remains Contested

Russia has not achieved air superiority over Ukraine as of March 3. The Ukrainian Air Force continues operating a week after the invasion began, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting that Ukrainian Su-24s and Su-25s conducted airstrikes in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv oblasts in the last 24 hours.[4] Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted a Russian missile targeting Kyiv’s main railway station, which remains packed with refugees, the night of March 2.[5] Russian failures to secure air superiority likely reduce the effectiveness and extent of Russian air and missile attacks, increase the risk to Russian airborne and air assault operations, and force Russian ground combat units to face periodic air attack, likely degrading their operations to some extent. Russia’s failures in the air superiority fight are very surprising; ISW cannot offer any explanations for them at this time.

 

[Fede_LV]

From the more detailed report in the link:

Ukrainian Airspace Remains Contested

Russia has not achieved air superiority over Ukraine as of March 3. The Ukrainian Air Force continues operating a week after the invasion began, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting that Ukrainian Su-24s and Su-25s conducted airstrikes in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv oblasts in the last 24 hours.[4] Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted a Russian missile targeting Kyiv’s main railway station, which remains packed with refugees, the night of March 2.[5] Russian failures to secure air superiority likely reduce the effectiveness and extent of Russian air and missile attacks, increase the risk to Russian airborne and air assault operations, and force Russian ground combat units to face periodic air attack, likely degrading their operations to some extent. Russia’s failures in the air superiority fight are very surprising; ISW cannot offer any explanations for them at this time.

So it is to limited to inflict damage to a 40 mile long cue of sitting ducks but very much alive to challenge RuAf air superiority over Kiev?

You know what, never mind.


Best regards.

 

[tokenanalyst]

From the more detailed report in the link:

Ukrainian Airspace Remains Contested

Russia has not achieved air superiority over Ukraine as of March 3. The Ukrainian Air Force continues operating a week after the invasion began, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting that Ukrainian Su-24s and Su-25s conducted airstrikes in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv oblasts in the last 24 hours.[4] Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted a Russian missile targeting Kyiv’s main railway station, which remains packed with refugees, the night of March 2.[5] Russian failures to secure air superiority likely reduce the effectiveness and extent of Russian air and missile attacks, increase the risk to Russian airborne and air assault operations, and force Russian ground combat units to face periodic air attack, likely degrading their operations to some extent. Russia’s failures in the air superiority fight are very surprising; ISW cannot offer any explanations for them at this time.

That is a credible as the ghost of Kyiv, i know people want to keep morale high but sometimes just worse to give someone false hopes. Unless NATO involves themselves in the war is better to reach an agreement.

 

[ArmchairAnalyst]

That is a credible as the ghost of Kyiv, i know people want to keep morale high but sometimes just worse to give someone false hopes. Unless NATO involves themselves in the war is better to reach an agreement.

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Right or wrong, I still believe those guys are more knowledgeable on military strategy than most of us here.
Anyways, I'm just presenting their assessment.

 

[windsclouds2030]

The Russians are storming the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant.
Tank shells and autocannon rounds hitting the power plant turbine buildings...

Hope this isn't true.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499547023556718608

And live footage from the cams. You can see the Russian soldiers in the parking lot.

Edit: ! The Russians are shining a searchlight at the camera to blind it.

From a rabid anti-Russia source that posted it signed a petition to remove Russia from UN Security Council!! Just think seriously amidst the thick fog of propaganda war! Seriously for all, if you encounter such controversial / sensational news you better check and recheck your sources. Russia vs. Ukraine/USA/NATO/EU conflict has arguably the largest PSYOPS staged by the AA Pax!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496200586856906755

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Delete

 

[Temstar]

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Kadyrov has issued a bounty: half a million USD for heads of commanders of each Ukrainian battalion, as well as head of battalion commanders of any Chechens fighting on the side of Ukraine.

 

[james smith esq]

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Kadyrov has issued a bounty: half a million USD for heads of commanders of each Ukrainian battalion, as well as head of battalion commanders of any Chechens fighting on the side of Ukraine.

Did he issue a deck of cards?