Ladakh Flash Point

[ougoah]

Let's just say this. China wouldn't have been offering to drop China's claim on Arunachal Pradesh for 60 years (constant offer always on the table) IF China considered AP Chinese land. They don't. Which is why the keep offering to drop claim on AP in return for India to drop claim on AC.

However India's 70 year long insistence to steal AC just because criminal Brits drew the line in that way as they left India and gave a huge swathe of land they didn't even control during their reign. China back then went through many periods of weakness. That doesn't mean they deserve to lose land but because China was targeted by the west and superpowers and had monumentally tumultuous periods recovering from civil war and WW2, we lost land by crook just like HK and Macau were lost to criminals and criminal activity. Indians should understand the empathy required here. Have we actually ever invaded India? Patrols occasionally reaching near Tawang don't count as invasions since India constantly does that near Aksai Chin. Have we in the past ever attacked and invaded India in 3000 years or so of contact?

 

[twineedle]

Yeah I didn't realise you were referring to AP. AP is Indian controlled because it is Indian. China has never had sovereignty over AP. AP towns have always been Assamese/Bhutanese/Indian and so on. Never in the history of humankind has China as an entity whether Imperial China, Republic of China or People's Republic of China has "China" ever administered the whole of AP. NOT TO MY KNOWLEDGE (to the Chinese who insist otherwise!).

China claims the chunk of AP (definition varies but the disputed section can be seen in Google maps I'm sure you know but for readers) since 1960s after India claimed Aksai Chin. It was used as leverage and China always offered China's claim on AP to be dropped if India drops India's claim of Aksai Chin.

China uses its claim of AP to leverage on the real dispute situation which is AC. When India makes moves of AC, China might sometimes inflame AP. It's just one of those, since you claim my land, I will claim some of yours until you drop your claims. Of course India to this day has refused to drop its claim on AC which was "given" to it by the British who themselves didn't administer the claimed land during British India.

Imagine that? British India not administering a piece of land and then having the arrogance to draw borders as they leave the place they brutalised.

And yet India (after Brits leave) insist on that borderline the Brit criminals drew for the two of us? Of course they do though. The Indian elites think they're country club dwelling Brits pretty much and the line the Brits drew give India huge swathes of Chinese land.

Arunachal Pradesh is a legacy dispute just like Aksai Chin is. However while China officially claims the whole state, it mostly wants Tawang and some other ethnically Tibetan border areas. Similar to how India effectively recognizes Chinese control over most of Aksai Chin but claims some areas bordering Ladakh and Aksai Chin.

I think the problem is that after 1962, China refused to swap Aksai for AP, since it already secured aksai Chin by force and did not want to give India a larger territory without extracting concessions. So China started refusing delineation of the border unless India recognized Tawang as a part of China. India obviously refused this. And now that today, since India has a larger presence in the remaining non buffer areas of the disputed 20% in the west, it has no incentive to agree to such a deal with China. Which is why delineation ultimately failed, and will likely fail in the future.

 

[ougoah]

Arunachal Pradesh is a legacy dispute just like Aksai Chin is. However while China officially claims the whole state, it mostly wants Tawang and some other ethnically Tibetan border areas. Similar to how India effectively recognizes Chinese control over most of Aksai Chin but claims some areas bordering Ladakh and Aksai Chin.

I think the problem is that after 1962, China refused to swap Aksai for AP, since it already secured aksai Chin by force and did not want to give India a larger territory without extracting concessions. So China started refusing delineation of the border unless India recognized Tawang as a part of China. India obviously refused this. And now that today, since India has a larger presence in the remaining non buffer areas of the disputed 20% in the west, it has no incentive to agree to such a deal with China. Which is why delineation ultimately failed, and will likely fail in the future.

Yes securing AC did change the calculus and I forgot to add to a previous post that I also suspect China is going to move towards not even dropping AP claims in future if buffer zone of 20% total is secured for Ladakh side. Since it has won that side it may not even bother dropping AP claims and prefer to keep claiming it. I rather doubt it'll make any moves on AP at all but will keep the claim. There is no sense letting India have a free one after the standoffs in AC and with China controlling the only disputed area of AC that is considered controlled.

The thinking here could be - since the Indians actually pretty much fought us for AC and tried to control any shred of it, then we can reserve the right to fight for AP in time and keep the claim open. After all India also still refuses to drop claims of AC despite nearly losing access to AC and possibly will soon lose total access (if total buffer of 20%).

Dropping AP claim would be giving India a free one EVEN if India drops AC claim. Since India did actually try to take AC or at the very least tried to take 20% of the legacy dispute at Ladakh, bordering AC. I think China may want to make moves on Tawang if such moves become strategically viable and required for whatever reason India gives.

 

[sndef888]

AP is not defensible from china's pov because its over the mountains, on the brahmaputra watershed rather than the tibetan one. The only really disputable part is Tawang, which geographically looks like it could belong to either side

China already has all it wants and does not have to be aggressive at all.

It could totally end the conflict if it had better propaganda and convince the world that India is the belligerent one.

 

[ougoah]

AP is not defensible from china's pov because its over the mountains, on the brahmaputra watershed rather than the tibetan one. The only really disputable part is Tawang, which geographically looks like it could belong to either side

China already has all it wants and does not have to be aggressive at all.

It could totally end the conflict if it had better propaganda and convince the world that India is the belligerent one.

The tensions could only be ended with AC dispute being resolved once and for all. The ball is in Indian court to demarcate to international border and therefore release claim on AC. Then the ball is in China's court whether to drop claims on Tawang.

Indians forced China to fight two wars for AC and have inflamed it for 70 years. I'm not sure if CCP is even okay with letting it all go and give India a free one with Tawang/AP. But for the greater good it could and I think should be done that way. If India gives in and settles/demarcates along LAC and drops claims on AC either directly or through demarcation - tacit withdraw of Indian claims on AC, that's it, tensions over in terms of major sources. China hopefully just drops claim on AP after that and the two slowly start getting along.

The problem with this is Indian population is 70% extreme anti-China, actually believe China invaded AC (so many false narratives spun by various india medias, personalities, and govs over the years), and is wishing to invade India proper or something and make them all communists lol. They also believe China is greatly responsible for Pakistan India tensions.

"World" politics is dominated by western softpower and influence over politicians all over the world paid off or coerced in one form or another by the UK + USA + Israel alliance with underlings from Japan to Saudi Arabia and even India now as peripheral foot soldiers.

CCP correctly understood that India as long as it is ruled by Hindutva foundations will always try to cause trouble and on the other side o the coin, they will try be partial to western powers if not more directly influenced.

 

[twineedle]

The tensions could only be ended with AC dispute being resolved once and for all. The ball is in Indian court to demarcate to international border and therefore release claim on AC. Then the ball is in China's court whether to drop claims on Tawang.

Indians forced China to fight two wars for AC and have inflamed it for 70 years. I'm not sure if CCP is even okay with letting it all go and give India a free one with Tawang/AP. But for the greater good it could and I think should be done that way. If India gives in and settles/demarcates along LAC and drops claims on AC either directly or through demarcation - tacit withdraw of Indian claims on AC, that's it, tensions over in terms of major sources. China hopefully just drops claim on AP after that and the two slowly start getting along.

The problem with this is Indian population is 70% extreme anti-China, actually believe China invaded AC (so many false narratives spun by various india medias, personalities, and govs over the years), and is wishing to invade India proper or something and make them all communists lol. They also believe China is greatly responsible for Pakistan India tensions.

"World" politics is dominated by western softpower and influence over politicians all over the world paid off or coerced in one form or another by the UK + USA + Israel alliance with underlings from Japan to Saudi Arabia and even India now as peripheral foot soldiers.

CCP correctly understood that India as long as it is ruled by Hindutva foundations will always try to cause trouble and on the other side o the coin, they will try be partial to western powers if not more directly influenced.

The problem is China also considers many areas that are currently a part of ladakh to be a part of Aksai Chin. It will also be difficult to demarcate the la c when in several sectors India and China have completely different perceptions of it. A lot of the problems are not just due to India claiming AC but because India and China simply haven't been able to agree on the border between ladakh and AC.

 

[ougoah]

The problem is China also considers many areas that are currently a part of ladakh to be a part of Aksai Chin. It will also be difficult to demarcate the la c when in several sectors India and China have completely different perceptions of it. A lot of the problems are not just due to India claiming AC but because India and China simply haven't been able to agree on the border between ladakh and AC.

Well first (from China's pov) is to secure a complete buffer and then work out whether that's sufficient. As in the 20% remaining is considered a part of Aksai Chin or China if not Aksai Chin. It could be the compromise China has been offering in the past even after the wars in the 1960s.

India up to now has not been able to agree because it won't even accept LAC (or the deals that pretty resemble current LAC) as demarcated international borderline. So yes I think the ball's in India's court here. If it does agree to demarcation and tacitly dropping its current claims on AC, then we'll see.

 

[Temstar]

Someone earlier in the thread said they would like a headcount of all the Indian soldiers being marched back to their side. Well someone has done just that:

 

[Cyclist]

Indian media is currently in blackout control and censorship by government of India. Not a single major outlet mentioned this and they backpeddled the fake narrative Indians spun last week about thwarting PLA and detaining PLA. Immediate backpeddling by Indian government and Indian media censorship. No mention of these things at all.

Fact: Indian media under gov and Indian military influence was directed to talk about "detaining PLA" in September. Then two days ago started saying no this isn't true we lied sorry. "India did not detain any PLA" - literally what Indian gov said in last few days. As for "free" media? Then how did they find out about "detaining PLA" of course Indian gov and military told Indian media to write that and provided the fake details (which they themselves later retracted!). Furthermore if so free, why not a single mention of new super inflammatory photos that prove Modi lied and Indian military and gov covered up MASSIVE Indian losses and captives. India mentioned 50 IA captured but the reality was over 100 like China's PLA leaked to Chinese netizens. 10 officer held for longer than the rest and the rest returned the next day and following days because there were so many and treated their bloody wounds even though the Indians killed 3 PLA in cold blood when they were outnumbering PLA and started the fight. Not to mention beating up a lone PLA comms officer before that so yeah Indians keep throwing first punches.

As for buffers. Well they are what China's trying to achieve not India. If buffer gets established, India "gains" 0% of legacy dispute AND will have no more right to even patrol the 20%. China secures 80% of legacy dispute. If there is a total buffer of the 20%, both sides cannot meet and escalate so this dispute at the Ladakh side would not become an issue with fighting or needing to send troops out with banners to confront the patrolling groups.

just compare how they cover the recent news in India...

 

[siegecrossbow]

Someone earlier in the thread said they would like a headcount of all the Indian soldiers being marched back to their side. Well someone has done just that:

View attachment 78043

Around 40 in just this photo alone… I think probably 100 were captured in total.