Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[Phead128]

My fear is a new variant would finally render most vaccines useless.

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The Western media is highly misleading (or ignorant) by citing surges in infection or efficacy rate against infection. So long as infection does not lead to hospitalization or death, then the vaccine works. We only care if people are dying, or hospital beds or ICUs are overflowing.... the infection/cases can never go to zero unless everyone gets to herd immunity (highly improbable), so the reality is if people aren't hospitalized or dying, then the vaccine works.

If I recall, even against the Delta variant, most vaccines are highly efficacious against hospitalization and death, even if it's efficacy against infection is waning.

Example: Pfizer is "only" 63% efficacy against Delta infection, but is +93% efficacy against Delta-hospitalization. Same for all vaccines in general too, even Chinese vaccines. Very high protection against hospitalization/death.

 

[KYli]

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The Western media is highly misleading (or ignorant) by citing surges in infection or efficacy rate against infection. So long as infection does not lead to hospitalization or death, then the vaccine works. We only care if people are dying, or hospital beds or ICUs are overflowing.... the infection/cases can never go to zero unless everyone gets to herd immunity (highly improbable), so the reality is if people aren't hospitalized or dying, then the vaccine works.

If I recall, even against the Delta variant, most vaccines are highly efficacious against hospitalization and death, even if it's efficacy against infection is waning.

Example: Pfizer is "only" 63% efficacy against Delta infection, but is +93% efficacy against Delta-hospitalization. Same for all vaccines in general too, even Chinese vaccines. Very high protection against hospitalization/death.

The question is if the virus is running rampant in the population, then a new variant can emerge that further weakens the vaccines to the point that hospitalizations and deaths would also increase.

 

[Pendemic]

The Japanese are extremely careless, so I don't think they would even care about that as long as their games rake in cash. Personally, I think the Chinese athletes should just not go and cite Japan's reckless handling of Covid as their primary reason.

That is a strategy which needs thinking through carefully (read: Beijing is hosting the 2022 Winter Olympics). An unnecessary absence will provide the 5 eyes and their cohorts with many reasons to shun the 2022 Games. We’ve seen it before in the Moscow and LA Olympics back in the 1980s where a tit for tat boycott between the 2 Cold War sides earned nothing for anyone except for politicians’ ridiculous bragging rights.

Personally, I think that the Tokyo Games will be cast as an unwanted footnote in history due to its unfortunate circumstances and it would not matter if China or any other country does not do well there. In summary, China must take the high ground of not mixing politics with sport - just go, try their best and make sure all participants strictly follow testing and quarantine protocols.

 

[supersnoop]

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The question is if the virus is running rampant in the population, then a new variant can emerge that further weakens the vaccines to the point that hospitalizations and deaths would also increase.

The trends are bad for those republican states. Florida has less than 60% one dose vaccination despite vaccines being in full supply since April. Comparatively, Ontario had vaccine shortage up to last month and already far surpassed that number.

 

[KYli]

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[Tyler]

The trends are bad for those republican states. Florida has less than 60% one dose vaccination despite vaccines being in full supply since April. Comparatively, Ontario had vaccine shortage up to last month and already far surpassed that number.

You need to take the third dose to protect yourself. China needs to develop its own mRNA vaccines sooner.

 

[avatar1234]

You need to take the third dose to protect yourself. China needs to develop its own mRNA vaccines sooner.

I do wonder what will happen if within half a year pretty much all of China is vaccinated. And then they open up the country eventually. And virus proliferates. Sure, the vaccine might prevent 60% of people from getting any symptoms. Or even prevent 90% of people to be hospitalized. But for a population of 1.4 billion, assuming no vaccine still lead to 10% of people getting hospitalized, it'd still mean 1% would get hospitalized. That's 14 million people. And if just 10% of those hospitalized die, vaccine or no vaccine, that's over one million deaths. Something like 10 million people die in China annually anyway. So would a million more be a significant development?

 

[KYli]

China has no plan to reopen until the second half of next year. Chinese experts have already been talking about the need to vaccinate at least 85% of the population to gain herd immunity. A booster shot has been discussed and a second or maybe third generation vaccines could be needed for variants.

From the Chinese government's perspective, it is perfectly willing to let the UK or the US government to experiment with no mask, open border, and no more pandemic restrictions first. If the US and the UK have proven that vaccines work well against cutting hospitalizations or deaths, then and only then China would consider reopening the border.

 

[vincent]

You need to take the third dose to protect yourself. China needs to develop its own mRNA vaccines sooner.

You have money invested in Moderna or Pfizer? What's with the religious fever on mRNA vaccines? It's tiresome

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

I do wonder what will happen if within half a year pretty much all of China is vaccinated. And then they open up the country eventually. And virus proliferates. Sure, the vaccine might prevent 60% of people from getting any symptoms. Or even prevent 90% of people to be hospitalized. But for a population of 1.4 billion, assuming no vaccine still lead to 10% of people getting hospitalized, it'd still mean 1% would get hospitalized. That's 14 million people. And if just 10% of those hospitalized die, vaccine or no vaccine, that's over one million deaths. Something like 10 million people die in China annually anyway. So would a million more be a significant development?

The headline, “One million people died due to Covid”, will shock anyone since the number alone is a lot although percentage wise it is insignificant. To Chinese people, it would indicate that the government is basically treating people like a statistic and that will lead to social unrest. In Chinese culture, a government’s job is to not only lead the people, but also to take care of the people and save as many of them as possible in major disasters. Otherwise, s**t will hit the fan. It’s a virtue that can be found in even the English translations of various Chinese historical and philosophical works. For example, the housing problem in major cities, particularly Shenzhen, is forcing the government to step in since people are angry that the prices are out of control. Here in the US, SF, NYC, and other major cities all have major housing crises and the governments of all levels generally don’t care. Contrary to the news produced by Western media, the Chinese government under the current leadership does give a d**n about its people unlike in the US where the government is ok with losses within acceptable parameters.