Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[shanlung]

Yes. I can find flaws in her article-
1. In December, while China was fighting the outbreak of the virus in Wuhan,
Was China actually fighting the outbreak in Dezember?
2. He borrowed the playbook from France and Italy. He told us of the need for “social distancing” (easy to understand for a society so steeped in the practice of caste) and called for a day of “people’s curfew” on March 22.
I guess you have never been to the subcontinent. There are caste problems in the rural areas in some parts of the country but in the urban areas it's non-existent. Moreover, are France and Italy the only countries which suggested their people to keep safe distance?

3.Locked down we were. Many health professionals and epidemiologists have applauded this move. Perhaps they are right in theory. But surely none of them can support the calamitous lack of planning or preparedness that turned the world’s biggest, most punitive lockdown into the exact opposite of what it was meant to achieve.
There's no perhaps. Either the health professionals were correct or they were not. In a disaster you follow the theory and don't try to 'think out of the box'. Can she suggest what Indian government should have done?

4.Many driven out by their employers and landlords, millions of impoverished, hungry, thirsty people, young and old, men, women, children, sick people, blind people, disabled people, with nowhere else to go, with no public transport in sight, began a long march home to their villages.

What she didn't write that most of these cases happened to migrants working in Delhi. Why didn't the state government take any action?

5.
An organisation called the Tablighi Jamaat, which held a meeting in Delhi before the lockdown was announced, has turned out to be a “super spreader”.
Why the quotes? Do you know that as much 30% tested positive have links with this congregation?

6.. Some believe it’s God’s way of bringing us to our senses. Others that it’s a Chinese conspiracy to take over the world.
Most people in India (whom I know or interact with on a regular basis) think the latter. I have hardly found anyone who is even remotely sympathetic to China in this case. She clearly doesn't know about the ground reality in India.

Now if you think that I am making things up or my acquaintances don't represent the general populace just have a look how India reacted to Modi's call for the solidarity event that took place last night. He is probably the most popular leader in Indian history.

Word of advice: despite being a supporter of Pakistan China hasn't been actually treated as an enemy state by India. The Americans have long been courting us to actively join their camp against China. The current mood in India is extremely (that's a mild word) anti Chinese. Don't test India's or Indians' patience too much. Don't take it personally as this is from a well-wisher of China and the Chinese people.

You said what you said.
Let us just leave it at that.

 

[Jura The idiot]

The people who came up with these models have already backed off their numbers, distancing themselves from their own model. So as usual my observation is spot on, and I did state that the numbers will be very frightening, but they will NOT reach the cataclysmic numbers posted on those flawed models....

I would concede that the numbers coming out of hot-spots are indeed heartbreaking, just as I acknowledged they would be!

So just to be fair and honest, why don't you post your "chicken little" numbers up again in response...

Brother what do you mean?

here's my Mar 26, 2020 post:

Yesterday at 4:51 PM
-- doubled again ("Officials reported 223 deaths Wednesday ..."

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),

so will it go to like 500 March 30 -- 1k April 3 -- 2k April 6 or what

here's your Mar 26, 2020 rebuttal:

No, your model is inaccurate, while the numbers will increase exponentially, the West and East coasts each have large populations of "at risk" community's. Atlanta and Chicago are also a large "at risk" populations, and there are others through out the country, but there simply is not the "population density" to fuel the numbers coming out of New York.

Europe has a very high population density as well, much like Wuhan, Italy, and Spain, there are lots of questions about why it seems to be more virulent in some communities and less so in other communities.

So lets leave some of the "sky is falling" drama to "chicken little", it serves no purpose here other than to fuel discord....

This is a virulent contagion that will fuel some very frightening numbers, but thankfully your data and your method are flawed, amateurs should leave the projections to accurate scientific models that factor in accurate data, not mass hysteria.

So lets stick to our forte's, and leave the the projections to those to whom accurate projections matter.

and what has happened is inside my Today at 3:18 PM post:

Mar 26, 2020
in reaction to Mar 26, 2020

so let me see (before I'm censored? LOL or quarantined)

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2985 (March 30) - 2431 (March 29) = 554
7007 (April 3) - 5821 (April 2) = 1186
as for today, it's middle of the night in Hawaii now, but let's get ready

... - 9534 (April 5) = ...

(tomorrow I'm going to add the number of deaths for April 6, because it's only morning in the US now)

do you perhaps want me to walk you through the above posts?

 

[Air Force Brat]

Brother what do you mean?

here's my Mar 26, 2020 post:


here's your Mar 26, 2020 rebuttal:


and what has happened is inside my Today at 3:18 PM post:

(tomorrow I'm going to add the number of deaths for April 6, because it's only morning in the US now)

do you perhaps want me to walk you through the above posts?

I responded to the very specific, very high numbers of projected deaths in the US in one of your links, post those numbers up, from the model.. I believe the model projected US deaths of at least 100,000 to up to 250,000, that's what I am objecting to. I responded that the rest of the country would not follow a model built on New York and other hotspots, simply because they don't have the population density. as Master Jeff is so fond of saying, we shall see???

 

[PiSigma]

Yes. I can find flaws in her article-
1. In December, while China was fighting the outbreak of the virus in Wuhan,
Was China actually fighting the outbreak in Dezember?
2. He borrowed the playbook from France and Italy. He told us of the need for “social distancing” (easy to understand for a society so steeped in the practice of caste) and called for a day of “people’s curfew” on March 22.
I guess you have never been to the subcontinent. There are caste problems in the rural areas in some parts of the country but in the urban areas it's non-existent. Moreover, are France and Italy the only countries which suggested their people to keep safe distance?

3.Locked down we were. Many health professionals and epidemiologists have applauded this move. Perhaps they are right in theory. But surely none of them can support the calamitous lack of planning or preparedness that turned the world’s biggest, most punitive lockdown into the exact opposite of what it was meant to achieve.
There's no perhaps. Either the health professionals were correct or they were not. In a disaster you follow the theory and don't try to 'think out of the box'. Can she suggest what Indian government should have done?

4.Many driven out by their employers and landlords, millions of impoverished, hungry, thirsty people, young and old, men, women, children, sick people, blind people, disabled people, with nowhere else to go, with no public transport in sight, began a long march home to their villages.

What she didn't write that most of these cases happened to migrants working in Delhi. Why didn't the state government take any action?

5.
An organisation called the Tablighi Jamaat, which held a meeting in Delhi before the lockdown was announced, has turned out to be a “super spreader”.
Why the quotes? Do you know that as much 30% tested positive have links with this congregation?

6.. Some believe it’s God’s way of bringing us to our senses. Others that it’s a Chinese conspiracy to take over the world.
Most people in India (whom I know or interact with on a regular basis) think the latter. I have hardly found anyone who is even remotely sympathetic to China in this case. She clearly doesn't know about the ground reality in India.

Now if you think that I am making things up or my acquaintances don't represent the general populace just have a look how India reacted to Modi's call for the solidarity event that took place last night. He is probably the most popular leader in Indian history.

Word of advice: despite being a supporter of Pakistan China hasn't been actually treated as an enemy state by India. The Americans have long been courting us to actively join their camp against China. The current mood in India is extremely (that's a mild word) anti Chinese. Don't test India's or Indians' patience too much. Don't take it personally as this is from a well-wisher of China and the Chinese people.

And China still doesn't care what Indians think, they never thought India would be pro China anyway.

What you are saying is that all these people either believe God(s) did it or China did it, and the entire Indian population is so uneducated and superstitious that they haven't heard about evolution yet.

 

[Jura The idiot]

I responded to the very specific, very high numbers of projected deaths in the US in one of your links, post those numbers up, from the model..

apparently there's one link inside my Mar 26, 2020 post that is

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dated March 26,
and there's one link inside my Today at 3:18 PM post that is

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so I still don't know what do you mean

 

[dratsabknihcllik]

And China still doesn't care what Indians think, they never thought India would be pro China anyway.

What you are saying is that all these people either believe God(s) did it or China did it, and the entire Indian population is so uneducated and superstitious that they haven't heard about evolution yet.

Apparently China does! you are awfully out of depth here my friend. A neutral India is the best thing China can hope for now and she is pretty happy to see India officially neutral vis-a-vis Sino American relationship. If she rocks the boat too much things will get really tough for her in IOR.

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Now don't jump up and down claiming that it's an Indian source.

Nope. I said that hardly anyone in India thinks that it's the God who did that. Most openly blame China/Chinese for this tragedy. In the marketplaces common people who hardly take part in political discussion are pissed off at China because their livelihood has been devastated.

Anyway, we are way off topic and the fellow member to whom I responded has already requested me to bury the hatchet. Let's not argue farther. It's a thread related to pandemic and let's talk about that, shall we?

 

[dratsabknihcllik]

You said what you said.
Let us just leave it at that.

That's the mature way to deal with these things.

 

[Tam]

I responded to the very specific, very high numbers of projected deaths in the US in one of your links, post those numbers up, from the model.. I believe the model projected US deaths of at least 100,000 to up to 250,000, that's what I am objecting to. I responded that the rest of the country would not follow a model built on New York and other hotspots, simply because they don't have the population density. as Master Jeff is so fond of saying, we shall see???

Religious gatherings, festivals, funerals, concerts and other large can screw things up disproportionately for less densely populated areas. States with higher diabetic, hypertension and obese populations will suffer a higher death rate.

I am going to think it will vary state to state, and along party lines, Blue vs. Red, with Red states getting the worst of it (Alabama, Louisiana, Florida, Georgia) while Blue states will flatten it (California, Washington state).

Plus its not going to stop on May, but there will be successive waves --- I mean successive waves --- because a lack of an overall consistent national response means you cannot flat out stamp it out in one blow. Instead a hodge podge reactionary measure will results in some places flattening it out, while other spots flare out, and these flares spread new waves to areas that previously thought they have it under control.

This is going to be a long drawn campaign.

 

[Tam]

Canadian expat YouTuber visits a Chinese mask manufacturer, shows you what a mask factory looks like, and gives some reasons why masks might be more expensive for the time being.

In all irony, I find the workers of this factory actually have better PPE than what I have seen with medical workers in the US.

 

[Jura The idiot]

I responded to the very specific, very high numbers of projected deaths in the US in one of your links, post those numbers up, from the model.. I believe the model projected US deaths of at least 100,000 to up to 250,000, that's what I am objecting to. I responded that the rest of the country would not follow a model built on New York and other hotspots, simply because they don't have the population density. as Master Jeff is so fond of saying, we shall see???

now I noticed what you added later ("I believe the model projected US deaths of at least 100,000 to up to 250,000 ..." etc.), well I googled

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which might be what you meant (did you?), but please note in fact I couldn't have posted that, because at that time (says
Published Tue, Mar 31 20205:49 PM EDT Updated Wed, Apr 1 20207:26 AM EDT)
I had been suspended by you LOL!

actually wait, we talk your Mar 26, 2020 post, so you couldn't react to March 31 news

anyway I hope you're OK