Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

Mar 26, 2020
No, your model is inaccurate, while the numbers will increase exponentially, the West and East coasts each have large populations of "at risk" community's. Atlanta and Chicago are also a large "at risk" populations, and there are others through out the country, but there simply is not the "population density" to fuel the numbers coming out of New York.

Europe has a very high population density as well, much like Wuhan, Italy, and Spain, there are lots of questions about why it seems to be more virulent in some communities and less so in other communities.

So lets leave some of the "sky is falling" drama to "chicken little", it serves no purpose here other than to fuel discord....

This is a virulent contagion that will fuel some very frightening numbers, but thankfully your data and your method are flawed, amateurs should leave the projections to accurate scientific models that factor in accurate data, not mass hysteria.

So lets stick to our forte's, and leave the the projections to those to whom accurate projections matter.
in reaction to Mar 26, 2020
Yesterday at 4:51 PM
-- doubled again ("Officials reported 223 deaths Wednesday ..."
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),

so will it go to like 500 March 30 -- 1k April 3 -- 2k April 6 or what
so let me see (before I'm censored? LOL or quarantined)
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2985 (March 30) - 2431 (March 29) = 554
7007 (April 3) - 5821 (April 2) = 1186
as for today, it's middle of the night in Hawaii now, but let's get ready

... - 9534 (April 5) = ...
 

shanlung

Junior Member
Registered Member
From my WhatsApp feed. Impossible to verify from my part. For all it is worth. The horror emerging in India may well eclipse USA.

Insightful article by a award winning writer.

Modi has probably set India decades back.
Very much a Trump like character.


The pandemic is a portal’

Arundhati Roy

Who can use the term “gone viral” now without shuddering a little? Who can look at anything any more — a door handle, a cardboard carton, a bag of vegetables — without imagining it swarming with those unseeable, undead, unliving blobs dotted with suction pads waiting to fasten themselves on to our lungs?

Who can think of kissing a stranger, jumping on to a bus or sending their child to school without feeling real fear? Who can think of ordinary pleasure and not assess its risk? Who among us is not a quack epidemiologist, virologist, statistician and prophet? Which scientist or doctor is not secretly praying for a miracle? Which priest is not — secretly, at least — submitting to science?

And even while the virus proliferates, who could not be thrilled by the swell of birdsong in cities, peacocks dancing at traffic crossings and the silence in the skies?



But was too long to copy and paste here. I backtracked that to below that those without strong stomach should stay away from and not read

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dratsabknihcllik

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Some points:
1. "
“People are dying. When you have intentional, cold-blooded, premeditated action like you have with China, this would be considered first-degree murder.” "
So in February China should not have bought PPE from rest of the world?

2. "China paid the manufacturers their standard wholesale rates, but prohibited the vital items from being sold to anyone else, the official said."
Isn't the US doing the same now?

3. " Michael Wessell, a founding member of the federal US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, confirmed the situation and said the Chinese maneuvering had left American hospitals “starved of PPE to fight this crisis.”" what a load of crap! Last I checked China didn't point a finger at anyone's head to sell China the PPE. So American health system doesn't have stock of things or the American government doesn't know how to plan things is a fault of China?

4. "“At a time when demand was rising to deal with the crisis, China was marshaling all of the products for its own use.”" last time I checked basic things such as masks were termed as not required as late as late March. How come then there waa great demand of those things in February when the head of the American government was dismissing covid-19 as just another flu?

5. "“What is most interesting to me, when we get through this crisis I think there’s rage, not just concern, but rage in Congress about China and from the American people that China is culpable one way or the other,” he added."
China is to be made culpable one way or other. That's the correct statement.

6. "“The same people that understood this virus had human-to-human transmission and was going to be a pandemic were at the same time vacuuming up every piece of PPE from the US, Brazil and Europe,” said Bannon, who formerly lived in Shanghai when he ran on an online gaming company.

“They’re at war with the West. This story shows the world what Chinese citizens are dealing with,” he said."
Wait a minute? If the us government didn't know that human to human transmission was possible then why they took back the American citizens so early in January?
Also it's interesting to note that Bannon used the term the west as a way to incite all western countries to start similar campaigns again China.

Don't know what will happen, but there's definitely a chance that many countries will join the bandwagon once the dust settles.
 

dratsabknihcllik

Junior Member
Registered Member
From my WhatsApp feed. Impossible to verify from my part. For all it is worth. The horror emerging in India may well eclipse USA.

Insightful article by a award winning writer.

Modi has probably set India decades back.
Very much a Trump like character.


The pandemic is a portal’

Arundhati Roy

Who can use the term “gone viral” now without shuddering a little? Who can look at anything any more — a door handle, a cardboard carton, a bag of vegetables — without imagining it swarming with those unseeable, undead, unliving blobs dotted with suction pads waiting to fasten themselves on to our lungs?

Who can think of kissing a stranger, jumping on to a bus or sending their child to school without feeling real fear? Who can think of ordinary pleasure and not assess its risk? Who among us is not a quack epidemiologist, virologist, statistician and prophet? Which scientist or doctor is not secretly praying for a miracle? Which priest is not — secretly, at least — submitting to science?

And even while the virus proliferates, who could not be thrilled by the swell of birdsong in cities, peacocks dancing at traffic crossings and the silence in the skies?



But was too long to copy and paste here. I backtracked that to below that those without strong stomach should stay away from and not read

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Don't take her words too seriously. She has an axe to grind against Modi.(I am not saying that India's efforts have been perfect but she has been trying her best with whatever limited resources she has)
 

shanlung

Junior Member
Registered Member
Don't take her words too seriously. She has an axe to grind against Modi.(I am not saying that India's efforts have been perfect but she has been trying her best with whatever limited resources she has)


So your words to be taken more seriously ?
Because you said so?
 

dratsabknihcllik

Junior Member
Registered Member
So your words to be taken more seriously ?
Because you said so?

Yes. I can find flaws in her article-
1. In December, while China was fighting the outbreak of the virus in Wuhan,
Was China actually fighting the outbreak in Dezember?
2. He borrowed the playbook from France and Italy. He told us of the need for “social distancing” (easy to understand for a society so steeped in the practice of caste) and called for a day of “people’s curfew” on March 22.
I guess you have never been to the subcontinent. There are caste problems in the rural areas in some parts of the country but in the urban areas it's non-existent. Moreover, are France and Italy the only countries which suggested their people to keep safe distance?

3.Locked down we were. Many health professionals and epidemiologists have applauded this move. Perhaps they are right in theory. But surely none of them can support the calamitous lack of planning or preparedness that turned the world’s biggest, most punitive lockdown into the exact opposite of what it was meant to achieve.
There's no perhaps. Either the health professionals were correct or they were not. In a disaster you follow the theory and don't try to 'think out of the box'. Can she suggest what Indian government should have done?

4.Many driven out by their employers and landlords, millions of impoverished, hungry, thirsty people, young and old, men, women, children, sick people, blind people, disabled people, with nowhere else to go, with no public transport in sight, began a long march home to their villages.

What she didn't write that most of these cases happened to migrants working in Delhi. Why didn't the state government take any action?

5.
An organisation called the Tablighi Jamaat, which held a meeting in Delhi before the lockdown was announced, has turned out to be a “super spreader”.
Why the quotes? Do you know that as much 30% tested positive have links with this congregation?

6.. Some believe it’s God’s way of bringing us to our senses. Others that it’s a Chinese conspiracy to take over the world.
Most people in India (whom I know or interact with on a regular basis) think the latter. I have hardly found anyone who is even remotely sympathetic to China in this case. She clearly doesn't know about the ground reality in India.

Now if you think that I am making things up or my acquaintances don't represent the general populace just have a look how India reacted to Modi's call for the solidarity event that took place last night. He is probably the most popular leader in Indian history.

Word of advice: despite being a supporter of Pakistan China hasn't been actually treated as an enemy state by India. The Americans have long been courting us to actively join their camp against China. The current mood in India is extremely (that's a mild word) anti Chinese. Don't test India's or Indians' patience too much. Don't take it personally as this is from a well-wisher of China and the Chinese people.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Mar 26, 2020
in reaction to Mar 26, 2020

so let me see (before I'm censored? LOL or quarantined)
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2985 (March 30) - 2431 (March 29) = 554
7007 (April 3) - 5821 (April 2) = 1186
as for today, it's middle of the night in Hawaii now, but let's get ready

... - 9534 (April 5) = ...

The people who came up with these models have already backed off their numbers, distancing themselves from their own model. So as usual my observation is spot on, and I did state that the numbers will be very frightening, but they will NOT reach the cataclysmic numbers posted on those flawed models....

I would concede that the numbers coming out of hot-spots are indeed heartbreaking, just as I acknowledged they would be!

So just to be fair and honest, why don't you post your "chicken little" numbers up again in response...
 
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