An article featured in Proceedings magazine, published by the US Naval Institute.
Basically the author is saying that in order for China to have a grand anniversary ceremony in 2049, it needs to have conquered Taiwan by military means by 2030, and that such a military conflict is inevitable.
But that theory is full of holes.
Just to name a few.
Even after 2030, China's economy and military capabilities will likely still be on an upwards ramp up, due to the time lag in converting China's larger economy into a stock of advanced weapons.
And if China aims to be a hi-tech, content middle-class nation by 2049, isn't that the ultimate expression of the rejuvenation of the Chinese people, rather than military conquest?
After this, I can understand why the author was "retired" from his post in the U.S. Pacific Fleet a few years ago, after a few too many public statements.
Basically the author is saying that in order for China to have a grand anniversary ceremony in 2049, it needs to have conquered Taiwan by military means by 2030, and that such a military conflict is inevitable.
But that theory is full of holes.
Just to name a few.
Even after 2030, China's economy and military capabilities will likely still be on an upwards ramp up, due to the time lag in converting China's larger economy into a stock of advanced weapons.
And if China aims to be a hi-tech, content middle-class nation by 2049, isn't that the ultimate expression of the rejuvenation of the Chinese people, rather than military conquest?
After this, I can understand why the author was "retired" from his post in the U.S. Pacific Fleet a few years ago, after a few too many public statements.
Now Hear This—The Clock is Ticking in China: The Decade of Concern Has Begun
Beijing certainly would prefer to acquire its perceived outstanding territory without firing a shot, as it did at Scarborough Shoal and with the creation of the seven “New Spratly Islands.” However, following President Xi’s “certification” of the PLA at Zhurihe, there will be increasing pressure within China to use military force as diplomatic, economic, and informational warfare efforts fail to provide a solution. This pressure will culminate in what I term the “Decade of Concern.”
Central to this theory is the belief that China is calculating a timeline for the latest possible moment it could use military force while still being able to conduct a grand ceremony commemorating its national restoration in 2049. (See Figure 1.)
...
Given that logic, Chinese leaders likely assess their last opportunity for using military force to physically restore their perceived territory as around 2030. This would allow for two decades of “peace” before Beijing would conduct a grand ceremony to memorialize the “second 100”—the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.
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