Crisis in the Ukraine

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delft

Brigadier
I see ... so it's not only about the centuries-long tradition, it seems ... and if some NATO soldiers officially on holidays had gone to Grozny being just stormed by the Russian Army during
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? What would you have said then?

P.S. Original post by delft http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/members-club-room/crisis-ukraine-51-6939.html#post302655
Chechnia was not a reconized independent country like the Donbass now. That is why Russian soldiers who by accident wander into Ukraine don't fight - and the Russian soldiers on their own side of the border probably will not shoot either if they meet wandering Ukrainian soldiers. But Russian soldiers actually fighting are in a dubious position. But the suggestion is that those are a minority among the Russians fighting in the Donbass. Most of the Russians fighting were said to be former military men. There was some mnention of Chechen men who earlier fought against the Russian army in the Caucasus an now went to the Donbass to help the Russians there.

A connected matter is the original planning of this rebellion. Militaries play all kinds of war games among them regular army against guerrillas. The players can be very emotional about the game - I remember reading in a book about war games ( the Pelican book I bought about fifty years ago ? ) that two US army colonels playing a game against each other in the Pentagon after a few weeks were hardly able to speak to each other. In the US army the purpose of nearly every game will be how to defeat the guerrilla because since the Indian wars that has been the purpose of that army except for world wars and the wars against much weaker countries. Of course they will have gamed the mujahedin in Afghanistan against the Russians but that will have been an exception. The Russians have a memory of the role of the partizans during the Great Patriotic War and so be more ready to be sympathetic to the guerillas. I imagine that the effective tactics used by the Donbass fighters will have been the result of a tradition of dozens of years of gaming in the Russian military schools. And of course of a good knowledge of the qualities of the Ukrainian army or the lack of those.
 

delft

Brigadier
A moment ago I read non-Kremlin Russian article "Half-Stepped From A Full-Scale War" (my translation)
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which is scary, says if Putin's strategic goal announced in April, which is "sustainable truce" is not achieved quickly after the recent surge of the Russian involvement (some posters here seem to believe there is no such a thing), in particular by taking over Mariupol, tens of thousands of Russian soldiers will soon go in ... one of the reason would be new Conscripts will arrive after October 1, but until then the current Conscripts man Battalion-level Artillery ... the article says
That doesn't make sense. A no fly zone and air attacks would make mince meat of the road bound Ukrainian army by the time the Russian army started to cross the border.

I think the purpose of Russia is to thoroughly discredit the Kiev regime in the eyes of its own people but also in the eyes of the peoples of EU. On the website of my favorite radio station is since this morning an item from a Dutch journalist in Donetsk saying that Obama has shown in his speech yesterday that there will be no effective support for Kiev, not even US troops in Poland and the Baltic states. The comments posted with the article are mostly opposed to Kiev. But Russia will want to give more time, for the sanctions to bite but also to get to the matter of who shot down MH17. The first poster with the article remarked that the coup in Kiev was not about Ukraine but to prevent the development of an Eurasian economic space "from Lisbon to Vladivostock" but no doubt also "from Kiruna to Singapore". If this Kiev project fails that economic space might still be realised.
 
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I just read another non-Kremlin Russian article, "Are We At War?":
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which mentions (and gives sources, details):

9 KIA in Snizne, Ukraine

2 soldiers buried, whose documents were found by Ukrainians in a captured
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(I'm not going to give a link here -- would surely be a fake :) so I give the Russian denial:
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an initial report (the article is two days old) on "the paratroopers who lost their way"
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EDIT
I just found they would go home ... according to gazeta.ru quoting Putin-Poroshenko agreement on this:
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solarz

Brigadier
There is a lot of confusion created (deliberately or not) by mixing terms intervention and invasion .

Russia probably did intervene in war by giving logistic, sending arms, training rebels or even by sending volunteers. This could be compared to what US did in Syria, or to a larger extent in Libya. But Russia certainly did not yet invade Ukraine, like US did in Iraq 2003.

Would Russia really invade Ukraine ? I don't know but let me tell you one thing : Ukrainian artillery still has Donetsk and Lugansk in range, and actually shelled and rocketed them today. IMHO, first sign of real Russian invasion would be heavy air strikes on those positions followed by armored thrust to eliminate them . There is no talk about going to Kiev if you cannot eliminate multiple pockets of resistance in your rear near strategetic points.

Bingo! You have just summed up in the clearest way the distinction between NATO and Kiev's accusations and Russia's actual actions.

I don't think any of us has been under the illusion that Russia had no hand in the current conflict. The eastern rebels would've been crushed a long time ago if Russia had not been giving them supplies, training, and leadership. This aid is in fact so vital that Kiev's military commanders were willing to attempt a highly risky maneuver to cut the rebels off from the Russian border.

Despite this, there is a huge difference between intervention in a civil war and actual invasion. If I might make an analogy, what the West is accusing of Russia doing is like what the US did in the civil war between North and South Vietnam. What Russia is actually doing is like what China was doing in that war.


I almost missed that:

I'm "fool enough" here LOL as I think in case of
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the Separatists would've been gradually loosing ... but Separatists, according to their own announcements, have been obtaining enough resources not only NOT to be worn down, but counter-attack in several directions simultaneously! for example,
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started his speech yesterday http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/members-club-room/crisis-ukraine-51-6939.html#post302646 from saying something like "Questions are frequently asked about how it's possible the Separatists' Army not only hold up the Ukrainian Army, but started the offensive." (not exact quote, using my memory -- I'm cooking the lunch now) and he went on with what's translated in http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/members-club-room/crisis-ukraine-52-6939.html#post302673

I think you are stating the obvious here. Of course no militia can hold out against a regular army without some kind of outside intervention. There is still a world of difference between that and the Russian army moving in against Ukraine. Like Thunder said, if Russia was really going to invade Ukraine, the opening moves would not be some recon paratroopers. It would be waves of airstrikes crippling Ukrainian armor, artillery, and air defense, just like what happened in the Georgia war.
 

thunderchief

Senior Member
Captured Ukrainian soldiers paraded before civilians. One women beats a soldier ( 0:18 ) .

[video=youtube;IZnb-l8ps2o]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZnb-l8ps2o&[/video]


More Ukrainian POWs :

[video=youtube;81aohleynyE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81aohleynyE[/video]
 

solarz

Brigadier
The real concern here is whether NATO plans to use this as a pretext for their own intervention, in which case things may very well escalate into an actual Russian invasion.
 
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I think you are stating the obvious here. Of course no militia can hold out against a regular army without some kind of outside intervention. There is still a world of difference between that and the Russian army moving in against Ukraine. Like Thunder said, if Russia was really going to invade Ukraine, the opening moves would not be some recon paratroopers. It would be waves of airstrikes crippling Ukrainian armor, artillery, and air defense, just like what happened in the Georgia war.

maybe but are you aware of the part of SampanViking's post I reacted to? It's (sorry, there must a better technique available for quoting but I don't know it :)

"
...
We were even told that the aforementioned elements were being put into place and that before long, as the Ukrainian army runs out of steam before our eyes, that a Counter offensive would be launched.

Well, this is exactly what has happened as predicted and as expected and straight away, we are told that have to believe that its all down to the Russians!

I cannot believe that anyone here would be fool enough to believe such nonsense.

..."

so I've said I'm "fool enough" ... because I think the current Separatists' Offensive wouldn't have happened without the Russian "aid" (I'm not going to go into any play of words around intervention/invasion http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/members-club-room/crisis-ukraine-52-6939.html#post302675), is all
 
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