East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

[SamuraiBlue]

Yes. But when China does send in fighter jets around the islands, Japan will be able to do as much about that as their coast guard ships can do for chinese coast guard and CMS ships in the area.

Around the isles does not mean it is within territorial airspace. Try not to mix one with the other.

Great. And from the Chinese perspective the islands are disputed and China also has a right to operate in and over the islands.
If Japan wants to hold its line that the islands are undisputed Japanese territory then they will have to shoot PLAAF jets that enter the airspace. If they do not, then they're effectively forfeiting their undisputed sovereignty, which was China's aim.

Yeah, but PLAAF fighters had not once entered it so your argument is empty at the moment. Japan does not simply "monitor" movements, we actually try to enforce it by scrambling planes and escort it out of the area.

 

[plawolf]

Granted China was caught flat footed on the first day of ADIZ implementation. There are many reason why this could happened. Communication breakdown. Unclear and conflicting instruction, Operating procedure on how to handle challenged is not available. Caught napping on the speed of challenge.

The point is China should never have been caught flat footed. China chose the timing of the announcement, and should have had contingency plans in place for all of them and many others and been on high alert ready for the likes of the US and Japan to challenge its new ADIZ.

I mean it is hard to think how the US could have presented a more obvious and easy to spot target than two giant B52s, and it was by no means a curve ball that they threw China like if the sent in a couple of B2s or F22s for example.

As I said before, China setting up an ADIZ is China declaring it reserve the right to do XYZ, not a commitment that it will do something every single time. Point is the choice is China's, and China should pick and choose when to respond and what that response is so as to not get led around by the nose by others, however, its hard to think how doing nothing during the very first breach by a foreign power after having just declared the zone is anything other than a mistake that never should have happened.

Now, maybe there were details that we were just not made aware of, for example, like if those B52s only flew a few miles into China's ADIZ and then left a few minutes later, it would not have been unusual if China did not respond (same as if that happened to any other country that has an ADIZ). But if that was the case, China should have put the relevant information out there.

 

[Blitzo]

Around the isles does not mean it is within territorial airspace. Try not to mix one with the other.

I think you're misreading what I said (edit: okay sorry, I meant to say "in" the airspace not "around" the airspace -- however my point stands)
Chinese coast guard ships have operated in diaoyu/senkaku waters. And Japanese coast guard could do nothing. They haven't fired on Chinese coast guard and CMS ships, they haven't tried boarding them.

Similarly, PLAAF fighters, once they enter diaoyu/senkaku airspace will lead to a similar non response from the JASDF. Will JASDF shoot?

Yeah, but PLAAF fighters had not once entered it so your argument is empty at the moment. Japan does not simply "monitor" movements, we actually try to enforce it by scrambling planes and escort it out of the area.

Good, so you agree that if and when PLAAF fighters enter the island's airspace, Japan will only be able to assert its "undisputed" sovereignty over the islands by shooting down PLAAF jets, yes?

So therefore by association, if Japan doesn't do anything less than shoot down PLAAF jets, they have effectively conceded that the islands are disputed territory, yes?


In that case, the question is, whether you will think JASDF will fire at PLAAF jets that enter the airspace of the islands.
Does Abe have the stomach to start a war simply to continue asserting Japan's "undisputed sovereignty" over the islands?

 

[Blitzo]

The point is China should never have been caught flat footed. China chose the timing of the announcement, and should have had contingency plans in place for all of them and many others and been on high alert ready for the likes of the US and Japan to challenge its new ADIZ.

I mean it is hard to think how the US could have presented a more obvious and easy to spot target than two giant B52s, and it was by no means a curve ball that they threw China like if the sent in a couple of B2s or F22s for example.

As I said before, China setting up an ADIZ is China declaring it reserve the right to do XYZ, not a commitment that it will do something every single time. Point is the choice is China's, and China should pick and choose when to respond and what that response is so as to not get led around by the nose by others, however, its hard to think how doing nothing during the very first breach by a foreign power after having just declared the zone is anything other than a mistake that never should have happened.

Now, maybe there were details that we were just not made aware of, for example, like if those B52s only flew a few miles into China's ADIZ and then left a few minutes later, it would not have been unusual if China did not respond (same as if that happened to any other country that has an ADIZ). But if that was the case, China should have put the relevant information out there.

Yes, and that is more related to media savviness rather than an ability to assert control over airspace.

So really it was just China's wording that was caught flat footed.

 

[plawolf]

Yeah, but PLAAF fighters had not once entered it so your argument is empty at the moment. Japan does not simply "monitor" movements, we actually try to enforce it by scrambling planes and escort it out of the area.

I really don't understand, is it a cultural thing for Japanese to treat restraint as weakness and equate might with right?

Do you think China is somehow unable to send Fighters over the Diaoyu Islands if it wants? China has thus far shown the restraint not to do that because it does not want to force Japan into a corner. But it would be a grave error to mistake the restraint for weakness. Japan has made similar mistakes in the past, and China has pushed back each time and Japan has ended up in ever worse positions every time.

Was Japan's position improved or worsened after it decide to break with past convention and arrest a Chinese fisherman in disputed waters? Was its position improved or worsened when it nationalised three of the Diaoyu Islands? Was its position improved or worsened after it threatened to shoot down Chinese drones?

See a patten developing here? Make no mistake, if Japan pushes China far enough, China won't give a damn anymore about leaving Japan a face saving way to back down and send fighters over the Diaoyu Islands, and if that happens, I somehow doubt you would be so smug about fighters 'escorting' planes out of Diaoyu airspace.

 

[jobjed]

Yeah, but PLAAF fighters had not once entered it so your argument is empty at the moment. Japan does not simply "monitor" movements, we actually try to enforce it by scrambling planes and escort it out of the area.

PLAAF fighers wouldn't care if there were two F-15Js "escorting" them. They'll just keep flying whilst ignoring the F-15Js' demands. What can the F-15J do to force PLAAF fighters to not fly over Diaoyu Islands other than to "try" to shoot them down? If the PLAAF sends J-11s, then the dogfights are pretty evenly matched; if they send J-10s then there's no way the F-15Js would be able to outmanoeuvre a smaller and more agile delta-canard fighter. If the JASDF does 'fire the first shot' through resorting to "trying" to shoot down PLAAF fighters, then there'll be a war that the US would not involve itself into and Japan would be on her own. Easy pickings for 2nd Arty.

 

[Blackstone]

Airlines Urged by U.S. to Give Notice to China

WASHINGTON — On the same day that China scrambled fighter jets to enforce its newly declared air defense zone, the Obama administration decided to advise American commercial airlines to comply with China’s demands to be notified in advance of flights through the area.

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We now see the behind the scene gentlemen's agreement between China and the US, and EU and ASEAN governments will probably follow suit. Inch by inch, China isolates Japan.

 

[Equation]

We now see the behind the scene gentlemen's agreement between China and the US, and EU and ASEAN governments will probably follow suit. Inch by inch, China isolates Japan.

Meanwhile somewhere in Tokyo a Prime Minister is butt hurt about this sudden news.

 

[xiabonan]

We now see the behind the scene gentlemen's agreement between China and the US, and EU and ASEAN governments will probably follow suit. Inch by inch, China isolates Japan.

I think after all whether be it the US or EU or ASEAN they all understand that ADIZ is something pretty common in the world and China's demands were not unreasonable or over the line, at least for commercial flights. It is in their interest that they do whatever it takes to ensure the safety of their airliners.

In fact the same goes for Japan, too. I do not understand why Abe's government has to "hijack" the commercial airliners on this matter. Sometimes "face" is important but I do believe that any nation be it China or Japan or the US should not be too concerned over it that eventually causes them to lose more "face". Actually I believe one example will be Japan's defeat during WW2. Long before the atomic bombs they should have realised that they had no chance of winning the war and yet they chose to ignore the Allie's ultimatum. If there's any lingering hope it should be gone after the first one. Yet it took them two bombs to eventually realise it's time to swallow their worthless pride and surrender.

 

[SamuraiBlue]

PLAAF fighers wouldn't care if there were two F-15Js "escorting" them. They'll just keep flying whilst ignoring the F-15Js' demands. What can the F-15J do to force PLAAF fighters to not fly over Diaoyu Islands other than to "try" to shoot them down? If the PLAAF sends J-11s, then the dogfights are pretty evenly matched; if they send J-10s then there's no way the F-15Js would be able to outmanoeuvre a smaller and more agile delta-canard fighter. If the JASDF does 'fire the first shot' through resorting to "trying" to shoot down PLAAF fighters, then there'll be a war that the US would not involve itself into and Japan would be on her own. Easy pickings for 2nd Arty.

Within Japanese territorial airspace in which Japan does not accept it to be disputed, Japan will shoot if PLAAF fighters does not comply. This is an act of self defense and is within our sovereign rights. This has not changed whether PRC declares an ADIZ or not.
Declaring an ADIZ does not change that situation.