East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

[Jeff Head]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

Lol I have this funny thought you fellas are over analyzing this too much. that the PRC govt simply wants to setup her belated ADIZ like others had done. It's not about macho posturing or political payback or complex diplomatic mind games. The media manage to sweep us all in their hyped up alarm bell ringing narrative lol

Clearly the PRC wants and needs an ADIZ in this area...but there is also absolutely no doubt...no doubt whatsoever that a part of the calculus in terms of the timing and the specific shape of the ADIZ that it is also aimed at the Island disputes...particularly with the Japanese.

 

[tch1972]

Re: First US incursion in new chinese ADIZ: no reaction from china

It's great that we're in agreement.

I feel like we should just reiterate some of the points to make sure the discussion, if it continues, agrees to these facts:

1: ADIZ is not NFZ
2: Chinese ADIZ doesn't restrict military flights from foreign aircraft, and if foreign military aircraft choose not to activate transponders or file flight plans that is their right and China may respond with interceptions (which is also China's right)
3: Chinese ADIZ doesn't impact (or at least is not meant to) impact international civilian flights

Since the whole issue is about politics rather than security, I would expect the Chinese to respond by sending fighter jets to intercept B52 to send a clear message. Inaction on the part of Chinese only reinforce the perception that they have no desire or ability to enforce their ADIZ. I can't help but feel it a bad move for the chinese.

 

[i.e.]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

Clearly the PRC wants and needs an ADIZ in this area...but there is also absolutely no doubt...no doubt whatsoever that a part of the calculus in terms of the timing and the specific shape of the ADIZ that it is also aimed at the Island disputes...particularly with the Japanese.

well as a far as the official Japanese Government is concerned there is no "dispute" on the island.

so what gives...

anyways keep in mind these facts when ppl think about these ADIZ issues.

1) Japanese refuse to admit that there is a dispute on the island issue. the signal could not be loud and clear. Not even US government would acknowledge that there is no dispute.
2) Chinese government official stance is that it wants to go back to an ambiguity over the issue as spelled out in the instrument of founding diplomatic relations. the signal could not be loud and clear.
3) US JP Military alliance is a corner stone of US Security arrangement in Asia, in which all of its credibility in the region is staked in.
4) JADIZ and KADIZ encompasses enormous part of East China Sea Long before this and Japanese aircraft routinely intercept Chinese incursion into that airspace. ADIZ is by nature unilateral.
...

Now the commentary:
Moral and Ethical questions aside.
Too bad US has hitched itself so inextricably with a [---] government in its ally that will drag itself repeatedly into conflict with Rising power in the region.

China will not back down. Not with something that it just wants to go back the way it was before. [-----]

 

[Blitzo]

Re: First US incursion in new chinese ADIZ: no reaction from china

Since the whole issue is about politics rather than security, I would expect the Chinese to respond by sending fighter jets to intercept B52 to send a clear message. Inaction on the part of Chinese only reinforce the perception that they have no desire or ability to enforce their ADIZ. I can't help but feel it a bad move for the chinese.

The entire issue is not about politics rather than security, rather than a combination.


First of all, the ADIZ allows China to operate over the disputed islands. That weakens Japan's claim to the islands and is a valid response to the Japanese nationalization of the islands.

The ADIZ also allows China to intercept and identify potentially hostile aircraft farther from its borders. There is no obligation to intercept every aircraft that didn't comply and China's never made that claim, so inaction in this case is actually the correct response.


In contrast the US sending a few B-52s barely inside the ADIZ is a political move to show support for the Japanese and a subtle way of saying "hey we're here, chill out," but is a relatively small move because the aircraft weren't armed, they were only on the edge of the ADIZ, and they were some of the most un-survivable and least powerful aircraft in its arsenal.




Inaction is only being portrayed by media as China having no desire or ability to enforce their ADIZ. And frankly I don't think anyone expects China to intercept every contact five hundred kilometers from its coast and barely inside the outer edge of its ADIZ either.

 

[i.e.]

Re: First US incursion in new chinese ADIZ: no reaction from china

The entire issue is not about politics rather than security, rather than a combination.


First of all, the ADIZ allows China to operate over the disputed islands. That weakens Japan's claim to the islands and is a valid response to the Japanese nationalization of the islands.

The ADIZ also allows China to intercept and identify potentially hostile aircraft farther from its borders. There is no obligation to intercept every aircraft that didn't comply and China's never made that claim, so inaction in this case is actually the correct response.


In contrast the US sending a few B-52s barely inside the ADIZ is a political move to show support for the Japanese and a subtle way of saying "hey we're here, chill out," but is a relatively small move because the aircraft weren't armed, they were only on the edge of the ADIZ, and they were some of the most un-survivable and least powerful aircraft in its arsenal.




Inaction is only being portrayed by media as China having no desire or ability to enforce their ADIZ. And frankly I don't think anyone expects China to intercept every contact five hundred kilometers from its coast and barely inside the outer edge of its ADIZ either.

With or With out ADIZ china can still operate with in that region. It does not need a legal umbrella as it is never needed.

what ADIZ gives it, or any one who claims to have an ADIZ covering a certain area, an administrative tool to establish control.

ADIZ is unilateral, it merely informs, made public, and delineates the way an aircraft shall operate in that space.

Now aircraft from any one can choose to ignore it. as many does , but it will risk an interception from PLA.

 

[alopes]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

I think people are underestimating the seriousness of what Japan just did before this ADIZ move happened.
Japan just asserted that they would take military action to shoot down the Chinese military assets in the region.
China, considering the seriousness of the Japanese action, ha no option other than react.

So we have a near crisis like the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
China has two options. To back down and accept Japan assertion over the islands, or to go the Soviet way and build Thousand of Missiles.
Other option is to cease trading and diplomatic relations with Japan.

 

[MwRYum]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

I think people are underestimating the seriousness of what Japan just did before this ADIZ move happened.
Japan just asserted that they would take military action to shoot down the Chinese military assets in the region.

That, in my dictionary, is a declaration of War.
What would USA do if China asserted that they would shoot Down USA drones over the Pacif just because they don´t like USA drones flying near their Country???

China, considering the seriousness of the Japanese action, HAD no option other than react in a strong way.
Now USA is saying that China has no right to react to the Japanese Agression, in their face.
That, in my dictionary, is very serious, as well, since USA is giving Japan an open way to do what they want to do.
The only problem, with that, is that China has nuclear weapons. So we have a near crisis like the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
China has two options. To back down and accept Japan assertion and victory over the Island, or to go the Soviet way and build Thousand of Missiles to equal USA power. Either option is bad for the China government.
Other option is to cease trading and diplomatic relations with Japan.

Backing down, in this day, is so unthinkable that it's not even on the table, something that all those commentators who call for calm failed to realise (or they just ignore the truth, whichever applies), therefore the only way is up until the shooting war starts. The only thing China can do is to maintain the control on the "when to go to war" initiative, for as long as possible.

There's one thing about fighting the US, but go to war against Japan? >>>inflammatory, provocative, rhetoric removed<<<. By the same token, if China back down even by an inch, it'd be the CCP themselves getting impaled on the pikes, figuratively speaking.

On the sidenote of rhetoric...is it now confirmed that the USAF's flight of B-52s merely skirting the eastern boundaries of the ADIZ but not flew into it, in the typical Cold War fashion for such things? Because the info at this time rather mixed, with nationalists in China claiming victory "because the US confirmed the boundaries for them", whereas in Taiwan or Japan or anywhere else the common cry is that the US show China a middle finger "by ignoring the ADIZ and PLAAF/PLAN aviation made no attempt to intercept".

 

[Blackstone]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

I think people are underestimating the seriousness of what Japan just did before this ADIZ move happened.
Japan just asserted that they would take military action to shoot down the Chinese military assets in the region.

That, in my dictionary, is a declaration of War.
What would USA do if China asserted that they would shoot Down USA drones over the Pacif just because they don´t like USA drones flying near their Country???

Very good point on Japanese aggression, but you don't hear much of that narrative from the "fair and balanced" Western Press.

 

[Blitzo]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

On the sidenote of rhetoric...is it now confirmed that the USAF's flight of B-52s merely skirting the eastern boundaries of the ADIZ but not flew into it, in the typical Cold War fashion for such things? Because the info at this time rather mixed, with nationalists in China claiming victory "because the US confirmed the boundaries for them", whereas in Taiwan or Japan or anywhere else the common cry is that the US show China a middle finger "by ignoring the ADIZ and PLAAF/PLAN aviation made no attempt to intercept".

I think if both sides see a victory then both may see less motivation to escalate.

In future the US can give China's ADIZ as many middle fingers as they want. China will escort some of those middle fingers and snap photos, some of them they'll just track on the radar screen. No big deal.

 

[xiabonan]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

"The US government is considering whether the new rules (of China's ADIZ) applies to civil aviation ........in the mean time US air carriers are being advised to take steps they deem necessary to operate safely in th East China Sea region"

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While Abe's government just directly told Japanese air carriers to ignore the ADIZ. In fact two of the largest Japanese air carriers already submitted their flight plans to China but later withdrew it because "The Japanese government told them safety will be ensured".