East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone
- Thread starter joshuatree
- Start date
- Status
Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China
Fair enough, but if we want to be specific, such as ascertain how much of a "loss of face" this was, we should also ask just how far the B-52s entered and how long they stayed.
If they stayed there for an hour and operated half way in, then that would obviously be eyebrow raising.
If they skimmed over the disputed islands for a couple minutes before turning around, then it's a "loss of face" in name only. China never claimed it would do CAP over the islands 24/7.
Fact is, the press has blown up China's ADIZ into something akin to a NFZ and that every aircraft that didn't follow its procedures would be intercepted instantly or shot down. Idiots. All it does is give China the pretext for doing longer range interceptions than they've been doing, and also for operating in airspace over the disputed islands.
Fair enough, but if we want to be specific, such as ascertain how much of a "loss of face" this was, we should also ask just how far the B-52s entered and how long they stayed.
If they stayed there for an hour and operated half way in, then that would obviously be eyebrow raising.
If they skimmed over the disputed islands for a couple minutes before turning around, then it's a "loss of face" in name only. China never claimed it would do CAP over the islands 24/7.
Fact is, the press has blown up China's ADIZ into something akin to a NFZ and that every aircraft that didn't follow its procedures would be intercepted instantly or shot down. Idiots. All it does is give China the pretext for doing longer range interceptions than they've been doing, and also for operating in airspace over the disputed islands.
Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China
Well, it's necessary to maintain historical context here. There's a greater sensitivity to the US flying into Chinese air space that goes beyond just how far in those B-52s got given prior incidents that have occurred, so as a result a greater "face" could be lost solely based on that fact alone. However, the idea of "face" can be overemphasized by armchair analysts when there are also real political, diplomatic, and strategic gains to be had for trading a bit of that away, which is what I think is happening now.
IF I'm right, the press's reaction is precisely the best outcome for all three sides. I do not think China established an ADIZ with any relish. They did it because on the somewhat less than off chance that Abe intends to create momentum for greater militarization of Japan, they absolutely needed to preemptively establish a harder posture to strengthen their hand in a potential power competition. If the press's reaction to China's non response towards the US gives Abe cover to pull back and cool tensions, and if the US can use this moment to pursue just that outcome (away from sight, I might add), it fits far more in line with China's preferred position, which is un-escalated diplomatic ambiguity.
Well, it's necessary to maintain historical context here. There's a greater sensitivity to the US flying into Chinese air space that goes beyond just how far in those B-52s got given prior incidents that have occurred, so as a result a greater "face" could be lost solely based on that fact alone. However, the idea of "face" can be overemphasized by armchair analysts when there are also real political, diplomatic, and strategic gains to be had for trading a bit of that away, which is what I think is happening now.
IF I'm right, the press's reaction is precisely the best outcome for all three sides. I do not think China established an ADIZ with any relish. They did it because on the somewhat less than off chance that Abe intends to create momentum for greater militarization of Japan, they absolutely needed to preemptively establish a harder posture to strengthen their hand in a potential power competition. If the press's reaction to China's non response towards the US gives Abe cover to pull back and cool tensions, and if the US can use this moment to pursue just that outcome (away from sight, I might add), it fits far more in line with China's preferred position, which is un-escalated diplomatic ambiguity.
Last edited:
Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China
The crux of this whole issue is two fold:
1) The ADIZ itself and the use of it to defend the Chinese main land or holdings against aggressive posture flights approaching them. With todays aircraft and their speed, clearly seeing something approaching if possible at some distance gives the nation time to respond, warn off the approaching aircraft, and then intercept it if necessary. This is relative common practice, as is the practice of some nations to test that response from time to time.
2) The Island dispute. In this issue, which is really the focal point, the PRC is looking to establish more influence and control in the area around the islands. The Japanese have long administered those islands, and have conducted maritime patrol flights over and around them. They intend to continue to do this. They most definitely will not provide flight plans or transponder information to the Chinese regarding them. The Japanese view such a situation as an escalation away from the current status quo, as does the US.
The US has now tested the ADIZ with military aircraft flying over the island. There was no response. This does not mean that the Chinese now, or in the future will not respond, but it does set a precedent that I fully expect the JMSDF will now also test.
If the Chinese respond against the JMSDF, I expect it to be tense the first time or two and hopefully emotions and knee jerk reactions will not intercede and you will have Chinese military aircraft watching and taking pictures of Japanese military aircraft, and vice versa. If that holds, then a new status quo will develop as both nations use their military aircraft to fly around and patrol the islands. I expect this is the PRC's intent.
The only way to prevent that from becoming the new status quo on the PRC side is to use military force against Japan to keep their aircraft from flying there and claim that sole distinction for the PRC. I do not expect, short of a severe miscalculation, for that to happen. At this point it is not the PRC intent (I believe) to drive the Japanese away from there, just to establish themselves with parity there.
The only way the Japanese can prevent thia new paradigm from happening, is to do likewise. I also do not expect that to happen. I do expect the Japanese will scramble their F-15Js should PLAAF or PLAN J-10s or J-15s intercept their maritime aircraft. This hopefully will be enough "show of force," to satisfy both sides. I do not think either sides wants, or is pushing for, a shooting war.
That being the case, at this time, I really do not see a way for the Japanese to prevent this new status quo from taking effect.
The crux of this whole issue is two fold:
1) The ADIZ itself and the use of it to defend the Chinese main land or holdings against aggressive posture flights approaching them. With todays aircraft and their speed, clearly seeing something approaching if possible at some distance gives the nation time to respond, warn off the approaching aircraft, and then intercept it if necessary. This is relative common practice, as is the practice of some nations to test that response from time to time.
2) The Island dispute. In this issue, which is really the focal point, the PRC is looking to establish more influence and control in the area around the islands. The Japanese have long administered those islands, and have conducted maritime patrol flights over and around them. They intend to continue to do this. They most definitely will not provide flight plans or transponder information to the Chinese regarding them. The Japanese view such a situation as an escalation away from the current status quo, as does the US.
The US has now tested the ADIZ with military aircraft flying over the island. There was no response. This does not mean that the Chinese now, or in the future will not respond, but it does set a precedent that I fully expect the JMSDF will now also test.
If the Chinese respond against the JMSDF, I expect it to be tense the first time or two and hopefully emotions and knee jerk reactions will not intercede and you will have Chinese military aircraft watching and taking pictures of Japanese military aircraft, and vice versa. If that holds, then a new status quo will develop as both nations use their military aircraft to fly around and patrol the islands. I expect this is the PRC's intent.
The only way to prevent that from becoming the new status quo on the PRC side is to use military force against Japan to keep their aircraft from flying there and claim that sole distinction for the PRC. I do not expect, short of a severe miscalculation, for that to happen. At this point it is not the PRC intent (I believe) to drive the Japanese away from there, just to establish themselves with parity there.
The only way the Japanese can prevent thia new paradigm from happening, is to do likewise. I also do not expect that to happen. I do expect the Japanese will scramble their F-15Js should PLAAF or PLAN J-10s or J-15s intercept their maritime aircraft. This hopefully will be enough "show of force," to satisfy both sides. I do not think either sides wants, or is pushing for, a shooting war.
That being the case, at this time, I really do not see a way for the Japanese to prevent this new status quo from taking effect.
Last edited:
Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China
I suppose if we're basing this off emotion rather than looking at the "specifications" needed for a "loss of face," then I agree there is a loss of face. But then we can argue the very fact that China isn't world number 1 in everything is also a loss of face
Well I doubt China will dismantle their ADIZ, nor did they expect the US or Japan to adhere to the ADIZ rules, so chances are there is still a card or two left to play, or that this is the exact conclusion China wanted -- namely having the pretext to fly over Diaoyu (asserting their claim and eroding Japan's), as well as having pretext to do longer distance interceptions for reasons of national security.
I suppose if we're basing this off emotion rather than looking at the "specifications" needed for a "loss of face," then I agree there is a loss of face. But then we can argue the very fact that China isn't world number 1 in everything is also a loss of face
Well I doubt China will dismantle their ADIZ, nor did they expect the US or Japan to adhere to the ADIZ rules, so chances are there is still a card or two left to play, or that this is the exact conclusion China wanted -- namely having the pretext to fly over Diaoyu (asserting their claim and eroding Japan's), as well as having pretext to do longer distance interceptions for reasons of national security.
Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China
Well it's quite clear that the US doesn't like to be told who and where to report to - being the world police™ and all. This B52 report is almost certainly a media orchestrated event on behalf of the pentagon. What is interesting is that American conservatives () being more even handed in their analysis than most of the stuff you read from liberals.
That said, this is a dispute between Japan and China so I don't think China will back down no matter how much the US tries to interdict on Japans behalf (if that is indeed what they are doing).
Well it's quite clear that the US doesn't like to be told who and where to report to - being the world police™ and all. This B52 report is almost certainly a media orchestrated event on behalf of the pentagon. What is interesting is that American conservatives () being more even handed in their analysis than most of the stuff you read from liberals.
That said, this is a dispute between Japan and China so I don't think China will back down no matter how much the US tries to interdict on Japans behalf (if that is indeed what they are doing).
Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China
While I agree that the US is with Japan on China's ADIZ being a clear escalation away from the current status quo, I also think, given the history of the US's position on this particular dispute, that they are amenable to China's perspective that Japan made the first significant move on this one all the way at the start last year. I actually think that the US and China's ideal policy on this particular dispute is a lot closer than either are to Japan, but there are few things that the US could do to rein in Japan without creating other complications in its security relations with China (since most of those would have to involve security reassurances that put the US closer to being sucked in).
I'm actually going to take the contrarion position on this one and suggest that Japan will NOT test the ADIZ now that the US has. It seems a bit counter-intuitive, but I'm of the mind that the only reason why the US tested the ADIZ first was precisely to give a reason for Japan to NOT test it, as a means of preventing the off chance of an incident between the two occurring if Japan were to test it first, precisely because an aggressive Chinese response would be guaranteed if Japan were to try it out. There's the distinct possibility that given the US moving first on this, that Japan might try to take this instance as cover to test the ADIZ on their own, but I'm certain that since this is a very obvious possibility which could end up placing the US in a posture that forces it to side with Japan more than it wants to, the US wouldn't make a move like this if the intention wasn't to prevent Japan from doing so. If I'm wrong, the evidence will come swiftly and clearly.
While I agree that the US is with Japan on China's ADIZ being a clear escalation away from the current status quo, I also think, given the history of the US's position on this particular dispute, that they are amenable to China's perspective that Japan made the first significant move on this one all the way at the start last year. I actually think that the US and China's ideal policy on this particular dispute is a lot closer than either are to Japan, but there are few things that the US could do to rein in Japan without creating other complications in its security relations with China (since most of those would have to involve security reassurances that put the US closer to being sucked in).
Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China
Just thought I should mention, I was just reading that they did indeed stay there for an hour.
Just thought I should mention, I was just reading that they did indeed stay there for an hour.
Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China
I don't think the significance is purely based off emotions. Who gets to do what in China's air space is a sovereignty issue, and has a significant role in shaping soft perceptions of how much power China has in dictating the permissibility of specific activities around its territory to both the domestic and international audiences. This in turn has long term consequences on the overall security environment of a region. China was mum about this one incident because it might yield more important payoffs over this particular issue. One instance of flexibility is an easy precedent to overrule.I suppose if we're basing this off emotion rather than looking at the "specifications" needed for a "loss of face," then I agree there is a loss of face. But then we can argue the very fact that China isn't world number 1 in everything is also a loss of face
I don't think China will dismantle this ADIZ either exactly because of those important pretexts. However, my thinking is that this particular incident by the US was meant to suppress aggressive activity (on both the Chinese and Japanese sides), rather than an attempt to dissuade China from establishing at least a nominal enforcement of their claims (especially because you would need a longer term diplomacy to back track such a move by a world power). This move was an attempt to slow down the escalation, rather than to reverse it, which is always a form of diplomatic success when it can be achieved.
Last edited:
Blackstone
Brigadier
Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China
My guess is we'll see two unarmed H6Ks over the overlapping ADIZ area with Japan by this weekend. They will behave as our B-52s did, and then casually return home.
Correct! We're good at telling people, but not so good at being told. It's a perk of being the only true superpower, and someday Beijing will enjoy the benefits of membership too.
My guess is we'll see two unarmed H6Ks over the overlapping ADIZ area with Japan by this weekend. They will behave as our B-52s did, and then casually return home.
- Status