manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Everyone with an IQ that looks like a Manhattan speed limit. For those with 3 digit IQs, we know that China will keep the mask on as long as it benefits us in buying the time to keep tilting the power balance towards us.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
I'm not sure where the idea that China should go aggressive against Philippines comes from. Philippines is harmless, and even in the best case scenario there's not a whole lot that China can gain from a conflict. There's a reason why China only uses the Coast Guard in this region.
And really the same goes for just about any other combat theater. None of them offer anything particularly valuable for China's strategic position so they're all non-starter. The only thing that China would feel is worth fighting for is Taiwan, and it will have to be taken first before anything else is considered.
And really the same goes for just about any other combat theater. None of them offer anything particularly valuable for China's strategic position so they're all non-starter. The only thing that China would feel is worth fighting for is Taiwan, and it will have to be taken first before anything else is considered.
Harmless?
All the US bases that they are reopening and expanding, all the US missiles they are hosting in the Batanes is harmless?
Attacking the Philippines is about teaching a weak power a lesson that their current approach is foolish and counter productive. If you don't teach them a lesson, then countries like Vietnam get further ideas about challenging China and allying with US and Japan.
China's current timid approach is not reducing either western hostility or hostility of China's neighbours. Cause no one takes them seriously. China is seen as too timid or their military is seen as useless since no one has seen it perform.
I think China should stop the hide and bide and start the Sino-Monroe doctrine soon. It will improve China's position in the world, they will be treated with more respect and fear. This will in the end reduce the conflicts they will have to fight. Its also time to show so called US security guarantees are completely toothless and useless against China.
Yes, harmless. Think about what the biggest American weakness is in the Western Pacific. It's a lack of basing for aircraft near Taiwan. The only large one that's within reasonable range is Kadena in Okinawa and nobody is willing to commit much force there because they all know that it's the number one target for the PLARF.
Theoretcially Philippines would be an ideal place to put another major airbase but do you know what the USAF has in the works up to 2026? Nothing. Why? There are several possible reasons like logistics but it's likely that the Americans just don't think they can protect it properly. All the other stuff is performative, and nobody thinks that it'll make much difference.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
The Philippines has the US at its back but all that happens is that it keeps losing territory and China keeps building our islands. So smart countries can see that the US is powerless against China in Asia; they can also see that this is true even when China restrains our power. Stupid countries will come to your conclusion, but as the Chinese saying goes, "We don't fear god-like enemies but we do fear pig-like allies." So let those porkly allies side with and harm the US.
Your commentary on many subjects is hit-and-miss when it comes to China analysis, most especially your fanatical call for military force against a hapless country like the Philippines.
What’s the possible upside for China if it chooses to flex its Leviathan military might against an inconsequential force like the Philippines? Doing so would force the U.S. to commit its forces in defense of a treaty ally. If the U.S. instead absconds from that obligation, it would be tantamount to surrendering the entire Pacific theatre to China. That would effectively nullify the South China Sea disputes not only with the Philippines but with every other claimant as well.
Even if U.S. forces are stretched thin by worldwide commitments, the United States would not be cowed by such circumstances. It would still fight head-on if forced into the conflict. In fact, what appears to be a clear Chinese advantage would likely become a powerful rallying cry for the U.S. and its like-minded allies. They would coalesce around a desperate fight against a clear bully: China. Such an attack could create a unifying message and purpose for a country and people who are currently rudderless and consumed by fractious social, political, and spiritual infighting. A Chinese strike on the Philippines would awaken the American spirit and sense of unity on a scale we have not seen in decades.
I frankly see no upside to this most idiotic push you’re clamoring for. Doing so would bring a precipitous halt to China’s ascent, an ascent that is all but guaranteed barring the kind of idiotic actions advocated by Napoleonic strategists like you and the many wannabe Genghis Khans whose lasting legacies are fantasized about by bloodthirsty idiots and numbskulls. That would be a tragedy of epic proportions for China if it were arrogant and foolish enough to use force preemptively against the Philippines.
Here is the problem with your thinking. You are thinking as if US is willing to fight the ultimate climactic war against China. But it is not. They are afraid and unwilling to commit. So, if what China wants is a limited slap in face of Philippines, US will allow it and make up excuses.
For example, China builds in Scarborough. China takes over Second Thomas Shoal and forces PH to vacate their ship. Could these moves cause a small skirmish between the two forces?
Yes, it might. But my analysis is that this skirmish will remain limited. Philippines will huff and puff in the media but ultimately chicken out of a climactic battle. US will also huff and puff in the media, make tough statements, likely donate Phillipines with a huge amount of weapons. But again, ultimately, do nothing.
China needs to start makings slaps like this against US allies to show both US and its allies the limits of US power and the ultimate strength that China posseses. It will allow China to slowly move US out of the region and its allies will be forced to change their worldview and allow Pro-China politicians to gain power.
I think it will also help China win over Taiwan without a fight. If China shows it has the guts to fire against US allies and US has no choice but to allow it, then Taiwan's thinking that it can save itself by relying on US will be slowly broken. It will start a process that will elect pro-China politicians and ultimately peaceful reunification.
China cannot cower away while US allies keep making moves against it. It needs to take some decisive limited actions. It needs start firing some bullets sometimes. No more water cannons.
China has enough power now that it can start making some moves. It needs to take some risks. If it always stays of harms way and never take any risks, it will never make good gains.
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you forgot ...deterrent is a 2 way street . the side who dare to cross the red line first often win because the ball now on the other side field
the other must decide : is ww3 worth the face saving cost or bite the tongue and back down for world peace
US already did many provocate move such as thaad missile in south korea , nancy pelocy pelosi visit taiwan , put missile in philipines , and many japanese remote island outpost link taiwan with okinawa
backing australia nuclear submarine buy program
and ... not much interest thing happen from china
so maybe now china should grow a backbone to do the same ?
anyway among all the east asia , south east asia nation who else be the better "chicken" than philipines ? they don't have chip industry like taiwan , don't valueable as south korea or japan or australia (aka worth the ww3 with effort in the eyes of american/allied population)
personally i don't think american and their allied population gonna have any more interest in fighting ww3 with china just to save face when some "unidentified" naval suicide drone lost their way and blow up the rusty BRP Sierra Madre in total darkness of the night for example
we could blame ukraine for that i think lol