The War in the Ukraine

[sabiothailand]

So, how's the invasion progress so far? Where are they pushing right now?


Additionally, do you guys think all-out war is just impossible in the future, considering drones and such?

 

[abc123]

That has been a Euro wet dream since Napolean, and everyone who is unversed in history or too desperate to heed it will repeat the fanciful wish. You can drink the ocean dry before bleeding Russia dead.

We shall see in about 1-2 years. God willing, we will both be alive then...

 

[temporary1]

Another 14 ships struck in a single day. Total over 90 since just a week ago

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2076226226704748717

It's Black Sea time now...
20 ships struck last night!
17 oil tankers, 2 LNG tankers, 1 tug boat.

Total 136 ships struck in 9 days
-


(in Black Sea, not Sea of Azov)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2077311552126845220

 

[abc123]

There are many things the Russians could be doing to make their lives much easier in terms of dealing with these Ukrainian attacks. Some of these they are not doing for political reasons, some for technical reasons, and some apparently for pride reasons.

The far and away biggest and most effective thing the Russians can do that will bring an almost immediate massive relief is to stop the Ukrainians from using NATO ISR assets in their kill chain while operating right up to Russian national airspace.

If the Ukrainians can’t have uninterrupted, timely and high precision tracking and targeting data, the effectiveness of their drone attacks will fall off a cliff and/or the costs of such drone attacks will skyrocket.

The second most impactful thing the Russians can do is rush build AWACS and get them on station. That will give them much longer reaction times so they can vector in air and other assets to interdict Ukrainian drone swarms to deal with the saturation attacks style they have been using to overwhelm Russia’s stretched defences. They can home grow these, or they can swallow their pride and just cobble some together North Korean style using Chinese components.

Finally, they can swallow their pride and formally request to buy Chinese weapons. While China has refrained from giving lethal aid to Russia, China has also reiterated its position that it has the right to normal trade with Russia, which includes weapons. To me, it looks like that thus far the Russians have been too prideful to ask China to purchase weapons at a high enough level and China is just shrugging and saying we are not going to go out of our way to incur the wrath of the Europeans to help you out if you can’t even bring yourself to ask us for our help.

And how would they stop NATO ISR assets without destroying them? NATO countries should probably just watch that? What stopped them by now, why didn't they do that allready in 2022 or 2023?

Same thing for AWACS production- why didn't Russia built them in past 4+ years if they can? Even with best industrial base, I doubt they could get AWACS under 2 years from order date...

About buying Chinese weapons, I presume that the problem lies more in Chinese fear of western sanctions against them, because they are selling them dual use and somewhat deniable things like electronics and drone engines etc. Also, it isn't the same thing buying something in China, you need hard cash for that, and buying in Russia where FSB decides what the cost of something is and when will be paid...

 

[manqiangrexue]

With what? Destroyed factories due to Ukrainian drones?

What destroyed factories? Like 0.001% of what Russia has? Russia destroys anything in Ukraine whenever it wants and Ukraine's still standing. You think this little tap will stop Russia?

Refineries are just the start, Ukraine will slowly expand to destroy every Industry Russia has.

Not in time to stop Russia from taking every inch of soil Ukraine has. All Ukrainian industries are at Russia's mercy every second. You magnify Ukraine's achievements while blind to Russia's dominance.

The only way to stop this is massive mobilization of men and war economy. Outproduce Ukraine in drones by several times, man the entire country with mass produced air defense.

Stop what? Russia's putting Ukrainians in its meat grinder and slowly walking down their territory. Russia will not mobilize until it needs to and there's not enough umpf in NATO to push it to go into bear mode yet.

Only then Russia can hope to survive.

How could it not survive? Ukraine is the only one whose survival is in question. Even the most mentally challenge European politicians know that Russia just needs to step back to end the war at its will; its well-being is not in question.

Once they have stabilized the home front, then bring mass drone strikes to Ukraine itself. Over saturate with 10 times more drones. Then they have some hope of victory.

Mass drone strikes are a downgrade from Russia's current mass missile strikes.

We shall see in about 1-2 years.

What? That's all you've got? And you want to bleed Russia? LMFAO We're just getting started. Putin told Xi that 5 more years of this is business as usual; they're going to be draining NATO through Ukraine for a long time to clear China's route to ascension. You're already talking about getting out and ending it? Little boy who talks about bleeding Russia, the bear is just warming up.

God willing, we will both be alive then...

Hey, stay safe, don't mess with Russia.

 

[abc123]

What? That's all you've got? And you want to bleed Russia? LMFAO We're just getting started. Putin told Xi that 5 more years of this is business as usual; they're going to be draining NATO through Ukraine for a long time to clear China's route to ascension. You're already talking about getting out and ending it? Little boy who talks about bleeding Russia, the bear is just warming up.

Hey, stay safe, don't mess with RuRussia.

I have no problem to admit that you were right- if that happens within next 2 years.

But, what if happens otherwise? What will be your excuse then?

 

[manqiangrexue]

I have no problem to admit that you were right- if that happens within next 2 years.

If what happens in 2 years? Russia's still fighting? Russia strikes and agreement that involves it keeping a large portion of Ukraine? What's with the 2 years again? Short attention span? Russia and China are in it for the long haul.

But, what if happens otherwise? What will be your excuse then?

What happens if what? Russia retreats without keeping any territorial gains? You think that's possible? LOL Well then, congratulations, you will have made it to the boss stage; we will see if Western power with its remaining health bar can stand up to China's challenge. We've been preparing for a long time while you were fiddling with Russia's claws. It wasn't looking good for you even before Russia invaded the Ukraine to be frank.

 

[abc123]

On the other hand once Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are taken Putin might decide to keep going, because there are dramatically less defensive structure beyond those two cities.

Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Konstantinovka are the three main fortress cities of Donbass built up since 2014. Konstantinovka is already 90% gone and Russians are about 7km from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Once they are all taken it's just flat ground beyond them. Compare current situation to 1943:
View attachment 178213
Red Army took the three cities around 6th of September and broke the German line there. Then they chased Manstein's forces all the way to the Dnieper River before the offensive was over, advancing 300km by 22nd of September.

It's not beyond imagination that if these three doorway cities all fall a similar route could happen again, if on a smaller scale.

He he he, by this time (4+ years) in WW2 Soviet Army was allready in Berlin and Germany was occupied and divided.
6D chess master Putin didn't manage to take more than 25% of Ukraine within same time span.
Great sucess... Stalin, as much as horrible villain he was, was at least somewhat capable and resolved...

 

[abc123]

If what happens in 2 years? Russia's still fighting? Russia strikes and agreement that involves it keeping a large portion of Ukraine? What's with the 2 years again? Short attention span? Russia and China are in it for the long haul.

What happens if what? Russia retreats without keeping any territorial gains? You think that's possible? LOL Well then, congratulations, you will have made it to the boss stage; we will see if Western power with its remaining health bar can stand up to China's challenge. We've been preparing for a long time while you were fiddling with Russia's claws. It wasn't looking good for you even before Russia invaded the Ukraine to be frank.

If Russia within 2 years is still fighting and has at least 1 m2 of territory of Ukraine- you were right.
If not- then I was.
Agreed?

 

[manqiangrexue]

He he he, by this time (4+ years) in WW2 Soviet Army was allready in Berlin and Germany was occupied and divided.
6D chess master Putin didn't manage to take more than 25% of Ukraine within same time span.
Great sucess... Stalin, as much as horrible villain he was, was at least somewhat capable and resolved...

Ukraine is almost twice the size of Germany and in WW2, the Soviets were one of multiple nations marching on Berlin while this time, Russia is the only army fighting many nation's supporting Ukraine yet they've still advanced into and are keeping enemy territory.

He he he You celebrating losing territory and making fun of your opponent for not taking more from you?

If Russia within 2 years is still fighting and has at least 1 m2 of territory of Ukraine- you were right.
If not- then I was.
Agreed?

What if Russia signs a treaty keeping large swaths of Ukraine before 2 years? NATO tells Ukraine to sign it over or lose support and Zelensky goes back on his words to regain every inch of Ukrainian soil, and you think that makes you right?

Regardless of the time, whether Ukraine gives up next month or if Russia is still fighting in 10 years, if Russia keeps Ukrainian territory, I'm right. If Russia gives it all back, you are.