Turkey Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

[CasualObserver]

CAATSA sanctions will be dropped:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2074480177518624885

This is even more important than the F-35s. The Turkish MIC has lost a huge amount of potential business because of this, and many major programs have been significantly impacted by having to develop even the most insignificant subcomponents domestically...

It'll be a huge relief for both sides once the CAATSA sanctions on Turkey are finally lifted...

 

[CasualObserver]

Now that the CAATSA is about to be lifted; during his meeting with Trump, Erdogan said those five Turkish F-35s that were put into storage many moons ago have finally been "promised" for delivery.

The F-35 issue is not a new topic for us. We have discussed this with the United States before, and we have secured a promise for 5 aircraft. Trump has also given us his word. He stands by his word. A favorable decision will come out of this as well.

 

[sequ]

There'll also be an AShBM version of Tayfun B4

"We are actually trying to integrate these technologies into all of them. This was just a demonstration of Block-3. But we will integrate similar technologies in Block-4 as well. The work on Block-4 is progressing very well, and we will hopefully share it with our people as soon as possible."

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[Gloire_bb]

Now that the CAATSA is about to be lifted; during his meeting with Trump, Erdogan said those five Turkish F-35s that were put into storage many moons ago have finally been "promised" for delivery.

I wonder how he'll go around congress here, where it'll be Dems and team Israel working together.
But tells a thing or two about how much Trump is ... fed up with Bibi's shenanigans.

 

[CasualObserver]

I wonder how he'll go around congress here, where it'll be Dems and team Israel working together.
But tells a thing or two about how much Trump is ... fed up with Bibi's shenanigans.

That's the thing:

He won't have to put it to a congressional vote. He just has to notify Congress and certify that the S-400s no longer pose a threat to F-35 operations in Turkey (not that they ever realistically did, but anyway). The authority to lift the sanctions rests solely with him...

(A) no longer possesses the S-400 air and missile defense system or any other equipment, materials, or personnel associated with such system; (B) has provided credible assurances that the Government of Turkey will not in the future accept delivery of such system;
(C) has not, since July 31, 2019, purchased or accepted delivery of defense equipment from the Russian Federation in addition to the S-400 air and missile defense system that would increase the risk of compromising the capabilities of the F-35 aircraft

This 3-item provision establishes a mechanism for the US President to lift the F-35 ban for the delivery of F-35s; if the US State Department/Defense Department coordinates and certifies that these provisions are being complied with, President Trump lifts this ban. The lifting of CAATSA will actually happen in this way as well.

Edit: Based on what they've been saying lately, it seems that the groundwork in Turkey has already been completed in coordination with the Americans. It looks like they're now at the stage of preparing the draft "certification" for notification to Congress.

TLDR:

• The F-35 embargo is not related to CAATSA sanctions. It is related to the NDAA.
• There is no need for US Congressional approval to lift the NDAA and/or CAATSA.
• When an agreement is reached on the S-400 issue, both CAATSA and NDAA will be resolved. There is no additional process.

 

[Black Wolf]

An F-35 deal may look like an outright win for Turkey today, but it could ultimately become a double-edged sword. Receiving the green light—including the five jets already in storage—would significantly boost the TuAF, but it also risks undermining the momentum behind the highly encouraging KAAN project.

Once a proven fifth-generation platform is available, the pressure to invest aggressively in a costly indigenous alternative inevitably decreases. The real question is whether Ankara can resist that temptation & continue treating KAAN as a strategic necessity rather than a luxury.

 

[sequ]

but it also risks undermining the momentum behind the highly encouraging KAAN project.

Once a proven fifth-generation platform is available, the pressure to invest aggressively in a costly indigenous alternative inevitably decreases. The real question is whether Ankara can resist that temptation & continue treating KAAN as a strategic necessity rather than a luxury.

lol no

 

[CasualObserver]

An F-35 deal may look like an outright win for Turkey today, but it could ultimately become a double-edged sword. Receiving the green light—including the five jets already in storage—would significantly boost the TuAF, but it also risks undermining the momentum behind the highly encouraging KAAN project.

Once a proven fifth-generation platform is available, the pressure to invest aggressively in a costly indigenous alternative inevitably decreases. The real question is whether Ankara can resist that temptation & continue treating KAAN as a strategic necessity rather than a luxury.

Ugh, not this again... I will address this for the final time:

Even before Turkey's removal from the program, it was planning the long-term procurement of 100 F-35As (+16 F-35Bs) AND 250 Kaans, for a total of roughly 350–365 fighter aircraft. The F-16 fleet was going to undergo a MLU regardless... This was before force multipliers such as Kızılelma and Anka-3 emerged, both of which are now planned to be procured in large numbers to further enhance Turkey's air power...

That overall force structure has never fundamentally changed. If anything, the requirement has likely grown.

After Turkey was removed from the F-35 program, it instead ordered 20 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 4s (+24–36 Tranche 3/3As) as a stopgap in place of the originally planned procurement of 100 F-35As and 16 F-35Bs. At the same time, it continued with the F-16 modernization program as originally planned, and around 230 F-16s are now set to undergo the comprehensive Özgür 2 upgrade

None of these plans have changed, except that the F-35 is no longer considered as indispensable as it was back in 2018. Indigenous LO fighter platforms with genuine fifth-generation characteristics are already going to begin entering service in 2026, while the Kaan program has matured to the point where no obstacles remain to its development or eventual induction.

That is why the Air Force's current plan is to procure only around 20–40 F-35s at most for NATO interoperability and nuclear-sharing missions, while continuing to prioritize indigenous platforms as the backbone of the force.

 

[Black Wolf]

lol no

Care to explain why? An angry emoji isn't an argument.

KAAN gained much of its momentum after Turkey lost access to the F-35 program. If Ankara now regains access, it's reasonable to question whether the same level of political urgency & funding for KAAN will be sustained.

History has shown that indigenous fighter programs often lose momentum once a mature, off-the-shelf alternative becomes available.

That's why I said it's a double-edged sword.

 

[Black Wolf]

Ugh, not this again... I will address this for the final time:

"Not this again"? This is actually the first time I've raised this point.

Even before Turkey's removal from the program, it was planning the long-term procurement of 100 F-35As (+16 F-35Bs) AND 250 Kaans, for a total of roughly 350–365 fighter aircraft. The F-16 fleet was going to undergo a MLU regardless... This was before force multipliers such as Kızılelma and Anka-3 emerged, both of which are now planned to be procured in large numbers to further enhance Turkey's air power...

That overall force structure has never fundamentally changed. If anything, the requirement has likely grown.

After Turkey was removed from the F-35 program, it instead ordered 20 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 4s (+24–36 Tranche 3/3As) as a stopgap in place of the originally planned procurement of 100 F-35As and 16 F-35Bs. At the same time, it continued with the F-16 modernization program as originally planned, and around 230 F-16s are now set to undergo the comprehensive Özgür 2 upgrade

None of these plans have changed, except that the F-35 is no longer considered as indispensable as it was back in 2018. Indigenous LO fighter platforms with genuine fifth-generation characteristics are already going to begin entering service in 2026, while the Kaan program has matured to the point where no obstacles remain to its development or eventual induction.

That is why the Air Force's current plan is to procure only around 20–40 F-35s at most for NATO interoperability and nuclear-sharing missions, while continuing to prioritize indigenous platforms as the backbone of the force.

Fair points & I agree the original force structure envisioned both the F-35 & KAAN rather than one replacing the other. My point is less about today's procurement plan & more about long-term incentives.

Defense priorities evolve with budgets, governments & changing threat perceptions. Once an operational fifth-generation aircraft is available off the shelf, the pressure to accelerate a costly indigenous program naturally declines. We've seen similar shifts in other countries where domestic programs slowed once an immediate capability gap was filled.

If Turkey remains fully committed to procuring 250+ KAANs even after re-entering the F-35 ecosystem, then I'd be happy to be proven wrong. I simply think the return of the F-35 introduces strategic & budgetary pressures that didn't exist while Turkey was excluded.