Effectiveness of Iranian coercion only grows over time.
2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
You see? Now you are already making the world your enemy by what you saying. Don't use the word coercon. That just makes iran's use of the strait of hormuz less legitimate. The strait of Hormuz cannot be used as a threat, only an equalizer against US attack. The moment it is proactively used as a threat, it becomes something the world cannot tolerate, and thus a coalition against it may be formed.
Iran cannot threaten to block strait of Hormus however it sees fit. They must have a just cause. Otherwise they are nothing more than pirates, and a coalition may gradually form. That is the worst case scenario, and must be avoided. The Hardliners have done their part already, it is time for negotiations, and I am afraid this is Irans weak suit.
Iran cannot threaten to block strait of Hormus however it sees fit. They must have a just cause. Otherwise they are nothing more than pirates, and a coalition may gradually form. That is the worst case scenario, and must be avoided. The Hardliners have done their part already, it is time for negotiations, and I am afraid this is Irans weak suit.
So what? How to fight against iran? More sanctions? Or should every country combine a United Navy to make an expedition to Iran?
The world? haha. What has the world done for them to be honest. They were sanctioned and bombed and the world only watched. The world is already an enemy. The west and Gulf Arabs are already coalitioned against them and attacking them.
They have their backs against the wall and now they can only strike back and get atleast something back.
Hormuz is the only leverage they have and they will use to the fullest.
I don't think Hormuz will ever get back to before. I don't think Gulf Arabs can ever be as properous they were before. They will slowly become poorer over time. Their entire premise of prosperity has been broken.
The Middle-East is most certainly going to see pro-found changes. This war will completely change the middle-east and likely the whole world. Its only started.
Interesting VLOG Discussion: Iran-US Negotiations, Strait of Hormuz & Regional Dynamics (Larry Johnson & Seyed M. Marandi)
Key Takeaways:
Questions Are:
Key Takeaways:
- Discussion centered on the ongoing Iran-US negotiations reportedly taking place in Switzerland and the challenges surrounding implementation of the proposed agreement.
- Speakers argued that recent statements by President Trump regarding Iran and Lebanon could complicate negotiations and undermine confidence-building measures.
- A major theme was the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, with the panel claiming that even partial disruptions to shipping are having significant effects on global energy markets.
- According to the discussion, shipping traffic remains below normal levels due to:
- Security concerns
- Insurance restrictions
- Ongoing regional tensions
- The panel suggested that energy security and oil supply concerns may be a primary factor influencing US decision-making in the region.
- Several claims were made regarding:
- Depletion of US strategic petroleum reserves
- Constraints on military fuel supplies
- Potential economic consequences of a prolonged regional conflict
- Speakers argued that Iran currently holds significant leverage through its ability to influence maritime traffic and energy exports in the Persian Gulf.
- Discussion highlighted reported Israeli conditions related to:
- Hezbollah's presence south of the Litani River
- Dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure
- Israeli freedom of military action in Lebanon
- Panelists assessed that neither Iran nor Hezbollah would likely accept those conditions in their current form.
- The VLOG also touched on:
- Iran's missile development and post-conflict military lessons learned
- Internal political debates within Iran regarding negotiations
- Regional diplomacy involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and China
- A recurring argument throughout the discussion was that economic pressures and energy markets may ultimately shape political and military decisions more than battlefield developments.
- The VLOG also touched on large-scale money laundering involving Ukraine aid funds, UAE financial institutions & Israeli-linked networks. According to the speakers, money is allegedly routed through Dubai-based real estate & banking channels before being redirected to various political & strategic actors. This was presented as one of the hidden financial dimensions of the broader Ukraine-Middle East geopolitical landscape.
Questions Are:
- How much leverage does control of Hormuz actually provide Iran in the current geopolitical environment?
- Are energy market concerns now the primary constraint on further escalation?
- Can any durable Iran-US agreement succeed without simultaneously addressing the Israel/Hezbollah issue?
- Is the region moving toward a new security architecture involving Pakistan, Turkey, Gulf states & China?
Iran already isn't being bombed anymore. The main holdup is on the Iranian side with regards to lebannon. Iran can't use the threat of blocking the strait of Hormuz to stop Israel from attacking Hezbollah. That is not reasonable to anybody internationally. Blocking straight of Hormuz when Iran is being bombed? Fair enough, well played. Blocking because of the Ceasefire breaking in Lebannon? That's no really acceptable and a very slippery slope. Iran effectively actually surrendered the control of the Strait of Hormuz to Israel, and they haven't even realised it.
?Where is your logic? Hezbollah is Iran's most important ally, a unique ally that can provide enough pressure on Israel's territory. It is impossible for Iran to abandon them. Furthermore, why do you believe that when Iran closes the Strait, the pressure from the international community is on Iran but not on Israel?
Exactly, I just share a VLOG above, where they discussed the same.
That's the problem, just because Hezbollah is an ally of Iran, doesn't mean it is acceptable for Iran to use the strait of Hormuz. Remember, the strait of Hormuz does not only effect the US. It effects everybody.
Hezbollah is a proxy. If they really were so important to Iran, they should fly them back to Iran for safety. But the problem is that their only use for Iran is to attack Israel. Which makes their existence/relationship with Iran purely offensive. If iran wanted to protect Hezbollah, it's fine, just sent your army to help, go undercover, like the other proxy battles. But using the strait of Hormuz? It isn't going to be taken well.
Iran can help Hezbollah, but they need to do that themselves. Using the strait of hormuz to try to settle the Lebannon issue is unreasonable. If Iran wants to have Hezbollah as a roxy they have to earn it themselves. The strait of Hormuz is not a magical lamp that gives you anything you want.
A second shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz will not be blamed on the USA or on Israel. It will be blamed on Iran.
Hezbollah is a proxy. If they really were so important to Iran, they should fly them back to Iran for safety. But the problem is that their only use for Iran is to attack Israel. Which makes their existence/relationship with Iran purely offensive. If iran wanted to protect Hezbollah, it's fine, just sent your army to help, go undercover, like the other proxy battles. But using the strait of Hormuz? It isn't going to be taken well.
Iran can help Hezbollah, but they need to do that themselves. Using the strait of hormuz to try to settle the Lebannon issue is unreasonable. If Iran wants to have Hezbollah as a roxy they have to earn it themselves. The strait of Hormuz is not a magical lamp that gives you anything you want.
A second shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz will not be blamed on the USA or on Israel. It will be blamed on Iran.
On the contrary, Remember This is the first and primary condition on the mou.