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tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
Lithuania and Poland are part of the EU. Why didn't they commit economic suicide instead of whining about China and not actually do it?

All these tough talks only sound nice in the short term where they don't have to commit for the long dig in.
You can list out the anti-China actions EU has taken in the last 5 years and then compare with what China has done in response. China's actions have always been significantly timid and symbolic compared to whatever EU has done.
 

RoastGooseHKer

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't think so. When you take individual articles instead of trends, anybody can be made to believe in anything. Here is data:
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View attachment 175171
"The first four months of 2026 show how unbalanced the relationship has become. China’s exports to the EU reached US$201bn, while its imports from the EU were only US$88bn. The result was a US$113bn surplus in just four months. This is not simply a story of rising trade.

The imbalance widened fast. Compared with Jan-Apr 2025, China’s exports to the EU rose by 19%, while imports from the EU increased by 12%. Since the export base is already much larger, China’s surplus with the EU jumped by 26% in just one year."

Also, they just had to watch their boss and bully get folded in Beijing, so there's that as well.
Well China exports more to EU because Chinese workers work harder (albeit I am totally against 996), and Chinese firms make better EVs and other consumer goods through entrepreneurship. The EU over-regulates everything and spoils its own workers like babies (with lavish welfare they disincentivise hard work and entrepreneurship). EU is an example of how NOT to implement socialism by making citizens lazy, fat, entitled, and spoiled. So if market competition were fair and free form protectionism, China’s trade surplus would be much more than $113 billion. Chinese EVs and rail equipment would have driven every European businesses in the same field into the Atlantic Ocean with no chance of survival. But it is only protectionism and the LACK of free trade that is protecting Europe’s lazy workers and zombie industries. If European workers could only work as hard and encourage entrepreneurship like their American counterparts, they would have been much more innovative and efficient. They don’t even have to adopt the 996 hellscape of China, South Korea and Japan. Just be more conservative Murican would have been enough.

So this goes back the grand logic of those controlling the pinnacle of strategic supply chain would usually advocate for free trade, whilst those who have either fallen behind or needed to catch up with their own infant industries would support protectionism, import substitution and Listian industrial policies.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
EU folded against Trump not because they are weak in terms of economics or trade. But because they are mentally enslaved by the anglo empire and are desperate not to anger Trump too much and break the US alliance.

But EU has no such desire to appease China. The opposite is true. EU under its current leadership is extremely anti-China.

They would rather blow up their economy than compromise with China.

So, I dont see EU folding at all. I actually expect China to fold, like they have always done, against the west when it comes to trade issues.

This is what I expect. EU takes extreme anti-China protectionist measures. China does some symbolic retaliation. Then after a few years China reverses those retaliations to "improve" ties. But EU actions remain.

This is how China has operated against the likes of Australia, Canada and so on. Too much pragmatism is a problem

I don’t think your previous analysis captured the reality of China’s economic strategy toward non-U.S. Western competitors. You described China as an “appeaser” that symbolically retaliates and then folds, resetting to “business as usual” with Australia, Canada, and the EU. But if that were truly the case, China’s economic ascent and deep inroads into high-value-chain industries would not have triggered such panic across the developed Western economies.


Take the very examples you mentioned. The reality is the inverse of the “folding” narrative. In high-value sectors — especially passenger vehicles/EVs, renewable energy components, batteries, and solar — China has not bent over and said “more please.” It has advanced aggressively. The data I researched (pre- and post-dispute) shows a decisive structural shift in China’s favor, despite tariffs, security warnings, and intense information campaigns.

Here is the before-vs-after picture:

SectorPre-Dispute (2019–early 2020)Post-Reset / 2025–2026Structural Shift
Passenger Vehicles (incl. EVs)Chinese brands < 2% market share; almost no EVsChina = #1 source of new vehicles (25–28% YTD 2026); Chinese-built cars = 20–25%+ of all new sales; Chinese brands supply ~77% of all BEVs sold in AustraliaComplete reversal. China went from marginal player to dominant supplier in the highest-value consumer durable (cars)
EV-specificNegligibleChinese EVs dominate sales; BYD and others leading growthDespite security warnings and “information warfare” from Australian defence circles, consumer demand overrode policy pushback
Renewable components (solar, batteries)Minor supplierMajor supplier of panels, batteries, and related techStrong re-engagement and growth

Europe & UK

SectorPre-2022/20232025–early 2026Structural Shift
EVs & HybridsChinese brands < 1–2% of EV marketChinese-built vehicles = 19% of European EV market in 2025 → 22% in 2026; Chinese EV/hybrid exports to EU nearly doubled in early 2026Rapid penetration despite EU countervailing tariffs (imposed 2024 onward)
Batteries & RenewablesSignificant but not dominantChina supplies vast majority of imported batteries and solar components; strong growth in high-value green-tech exportsEU tariffs and “de-risking” rhetoric have slowed but not stopped the advance

Your framing captures an older, commodity-focused pattern that no longer describes the strategic reality. In the sectors that will define economic power for the next decades, China is not appeasing. In my view it is advancing, and Western (plus Japanese/South Korean) attempts to constrain it are proving far less effective than the rhetoric suggests. The structural trade picture has shifted decisively in China’s favour in precisely the high-value areas the West most wants to protect - hence the current EU strategy of borrowing and reversing China's playbook back when it opened up it's economy to western countries investments in exchange for technology transfer, educating its population for market access. The absurdity on this particular scenario is that the EU countries most vociferous in it's condemnation of China's economic "bullying" is that China set the condition when it was technologically backwards and dirt poor and underdeveloped, whereas these western countries are already highly developed economies. So the Europeans are quite sclerotic when it comes to their economic history.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member

If you've watched Shark Tank, Kevin O'Leary was the one that would humiliate those looking to get investment for their cost of production being too high. And where did he say he would go to make things cheaper to produce...? Chynna! Even at that time outsourcing was seen as bad for the American worker. The corporate types are always the last ones to get the message especially when someone like Mr. Wonderful tends to blows with the political wind in the US. That's why O'Leary was seen as the sharkiest of the sharks there. As he admits on the show he only cares about the money. But of course now he's on the anti-China train but he still don't give a shit about the American worker because he's gone gung ho over AI.
If the Democrats had guts, they ought to deport that demented Canadian back to Canada. Strip him of his "U.S. citizenship" and say he got the citizenship via corruption with his association to the 3rd time soon to be convicted and soon to be former President Trump. But who am I kidding! The democrats are all about the appearance of "rule of law" and delegation or separation of powers. They ain't going to do diddly squat.
 

supercat

Colonel
Good luck.

How moronic do you have to be to claim that Trump "has been vindicated" in this regard?

Not anymore, because unlike 15 years ago, China has overwhelming military and economic superiority now.

The foreign fighters who helped topple Assad — and why China worries about them​

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OslXMbs.jpg
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don’t think your previous analysis captured the reality of China’s economic strategy toward non-U.S. Western competitors. You described China as an “appeaser” that symbolically retaliates and then folds, resetting to “business as usual” with Australia, Canada, and the EU. But if that were truly the case, China’s economic ascent and deep inroads into high-value-chain industries would not have triggered such panic across the developed Western economies.


Take the very examples you mentioned. The reality is the inverse of the “folding” narrative. In high-value sectors — especially passenger vehicles/EVs, renewable energy components, batteries, and solar — China has not bent over and said “more please.” It has advanced aggressively. The data I researched (pre- and post-dispute) shows a decisive structural shift in China’s favor, despite tariffs, security warnings, and intense information campaigns.

Here is the before-vs-after picture:

SectorPre-Dispute (2019–early 2020)Post-Reset / 2025–2026Structural Shift
Passenger Vehicles (incl. EVs)Chinese brands < 2% market share; almost no EVsChina = #1 source of new vehicles (25–28% YTD 2026); Chinese-built cars = 20–25%+ of all new sales; Chinese brands supply ~77% of all BEVs sold in AustraliaComplete reversal. China went from marginal player to dominant supplier in the highest-value consumer durable (cars)
EV-specificNegligibleChinese EVs dominate sales; BYD and others leading growthDespite security warnings and “information warfare” from Australian defence circles, consumer demand overrode policy pushback
Renewable components (solar, batteries)Minor supplierMajor supplier of panels, batteries, and related techStrong re-engagement and growth

Europe & UK

SectorPre-2022/20232025–early 2026Structural Shift
EVs & HybridsChinese brands < 1–2% of EV marketChinese-built vehicles = 19% of European EV market in 2025 → 22% in 2026; Chinese EV/hybrid exports to EU nearly doubled in early 2026Rapid penetration despite EU countervailing tariffs (imposed 2024 onward)
Batteries & RenewablesSignificant but not dominantChina supplies vast majority of imported batteries and solar components; strong growth in high-value green-tech exportsEU tariffs and “de-risking” rhetoric have slowed but not stopped the advance

Your framing captures an older, commodity-focused pattern that no longer describes the strategic reality. In the sectors that will define economic power for the next decades, China is not appeasing. In my view it is advancing, and Western (plus Japanese/South Korean) attempts to constrain it are proving far less effective than the rhetoric suggests. The structural trade picture has shifted decisively in China’s favour in precisely the high-value areas the West most wants to protect - hence the current EU strategy of borrowing and reversing China's playbook back when it opened up it's economy to western countries investments in exchange for technology transfer, educating its population for market access. The absurdity on this particular scenario is that the EU countries most vociferous in it's condemnation of China's economic "bullying" is that China set the condition when it was technologically backwards and dirt poor and underdeveloped, whereas these western countries are already highly developed economies. So the Europeans are quite sclerotic when it comes to their economic history.
The first table was specifically for AUSTRALIA. I forgot and neglected to double check before posting.
 
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