2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[protonme18]

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IRAN has chillingly warned it is “just getting started” after unleashing a barrage of missiles towards the UAE.

I really like this IRGC planning. Yes, you set the tempo, rather then enemy sets the tempo for you. In any game of sports, anyone who falls for the opponent tempo, loses the game or you say, dance to the enemy tune. Be it in war, trade or anything in life. Why would you let the enemy regroup, plan and set the timing of their attack. You disrupt disrupt disrupt and disrupt their plan. Rather then waiting Israel getting the green light from Trump to attack (they are really attacking your children, killing your people), you might as well if the opportunity came, blast Israel, Tel Aviv or their ports when ships carrying ammunition coming in or whatever. Or their leader having some meetings, you just fire ballistics and try to catch them off guard. There's no rules of war or honor to follows when you face elimination from your enemies. Look at how Israel blasted medic officers, journalists, who to say or condemn. There are no rules and nobody can even enforce those rules now. If the opportunity came, you see a US navy ship off position and there's a chance, just blast away. You don't listen to the nonsense of Trump's social post this or that. That guy, can turn 180 degree or even 1 sec in an instance. They are just bunch of rubbish news you hear from those media like Trump says "Fake News"...ignore them, they are just bunch of interest by their owners, just use your cheap AI Open Source military strategy to play for the win and see the opportunity, just hit it. I read there's 2 refueler plane gone down recently, not sure it's truth but good news and carry on with this strategy. Remember, before feeling remorse or anything, that 2 fuelers tankers are carrying jet fuel for your enemies to kill your children in the future. So, there should not be any remorse taking it out when you get the chance.

 

[manqiangrexue]

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IRAN has chillingly warned it is “just getting started” after unleashing a barrage of missiles towards the UAE.

I really like this IRGC planning. Yes, you set the tempo, rather then enemy sets the tempo for you. In any game of sports, anyone who falls for the opponent tempo, loses the game or you say, dance to the enemy tune. Be it in war, trade or anything in life. Why would you let the enemy regroup, plan and set the timing of their attack. You disrupt disrupt disrupt and disrupt their plan. Rather then waiting Israel getting the green light from Trump to attack (they are really attacking your children, killing your people), you might as well if the opportunity came, blast Israel, Tel Aviv or their ports when ships carrying ammunition coming in or whatever. Or their leader having some meetings, you just fire ballistics and try to catch them off guard. There's no rules of war or honor to follows when you face elimination from your enemies. Look at how Israel blasted medic officers, journalists, who to say or condemn. There are no rules and nobody can even enforce those rules now. If the opportunity came, you see a US navy ship off position and there's a chance, just blast away. You don't listen to the nonsense of Trump's social post this or that. That guy, can turn 180 degree or even 1 sec in an instance. They are just bunch of rubbish news you hear from those media like Trump says "Fake News"...ignore them, they are just bunch of interest by their owners, just use your cheap AI Open Source military strategy to play for the win and see the opportunity, just hit it. I read there's 2 refueler plane gone down recently, not sure it's truth but good news and carry on with this strategy. Remember, before feeling remorse or anything, that 2 fuelers tankers are carrying jet fuel for your enemies to kill your children in the future. So, there should not be any remorse taking it out when you get the chance.

I really really like this new Iran. Old habits die hard and I was expecting the ceasefire to break whenever the US got rearmed and they'd go ham on an Iran that didn't fire a single bullet to stay true to promises resulting Tehran squealing that that's foul play. But no. Not this Iran. Not the IRGC's Iran. This Iran started launching missiles, blowing up oil refineries, shooting at American military ships and has Trump saying that that still doesn't count as breaking the ceasefire. The whole fact that the US does not want to fight again but has to switch strategies to a passive blockade says it all; they're scared of the new Iran. Iran said they won't stop until the US genuinely regrets attacking it and I think they've reached that point, but they're still not stopping. This Iran is truly worthy of Chinese partnership.

They sure took this frat boy down a couple notches:

 

[solarz]

I really really like this new Iran. Old habits die hard and I was expecting the ceasefire to break whenever the US got rearmed and they'd go ham on an Iran that didn't fire a single bullet to stay true to promises resulting Tehran squealing that that's foul play. But no. Not this Iran. Not the IRGC's Iran. This Iran started launching missiles, blowing up oil refineries, shooting at American military ships and has Trump saying that that still doesn't count as breaking the ceasefire. The whole fact that the US does not want to fight again but has to switch strategies to a passive blockade says it all; they're scared of the new Iran. Iran said they won't stop until the US genuinely regrets attacking it and I think they've reached that point, but they're still not stopping. This Iran is truly worthy of Chinese partnership.

I think you're being too optimistic. The fact is, the US hasn't been hurt enough yet to back out of the fight, the current restraint is for moving its forces into place. Still, it's a good sign that Iran is not just sitting back and watch the US build up.

Frankly, Iran doesn’t appear to have this capability. They can hit static targets and targets of opportunity, but they have demonstrated zero ability to hit moving US forces accurately on the ground or in the sea.

I have to disagree here. Any US ground invasion is going to be very costly for the US. We just need to see the Israeli casualties in Lebannon for a microcosm of what will happen.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I think you're being too optimistic. The fact is, the US hasn't been hurt enough yet to back out of the fight, the current restraint is for moving its forces into place. Still, it's a good sign that Iran is not just sitting back and watch the US build up.

I have to disagree here. Any US ground invasion is going to be very costly for the US. We just need to see the Israeli casualties in Lebannon for a microcosm of what will happen.

They essentially did back out of the fight because they want to extend a ceasefire while Iran's already shooting again. What's next, if they cannot afford a ground invasion? There's no endgame and all they've done is drill into Iran how important it is that they develop nukes. It's not how badly Iran hurts the core USA because that's most important for an ultimate fight. This is at best penultimate, not even penultimate if Russia is next in line before China. The US didn't anticipate and cannot afford to get its tentacles mangled if it wanted to eventually confront China and that's why they most likely regret this already.

 

[Shaolian]

Iran now knows that they can keep the anglo zionist at bay or keep the situation at stalemate. But to truly be safe and to be able to continue developing their country unmolested, they need the bomb.

 

[protonme18]

Remember, UAE cannot move away their oil refineries, just as your neighbors potted plant is just beside your door way. You can kick away your neighbor potted plants. Whatever the US military might, they can't protect a potted plant of your neighbor if you just lives next door and armed with weapons hell bent to cause them pain.
This recalcitrant of UAE leaders, did not know what drugs they sniffed from US or Israel leadership, I support Iran to hell bent on blasting away their refineries or hotels if they start making noises or invite US military to station their bases in.
Either you come and discussed with me, or you face hell. This should be Iranians warning to the UAE guys. If you involved the US, this mean double the hell for you. You must be tough with these bunch of people. If they don't see the hell door in front of them, they will not be afraid.
Another bunch of nut leadership also in Kuwait. These 2 group must be taught a lesson they won't forget for making the almighty Persian people angry. If they US steps in, should gives them a bloody nose as well. You don't appease bullies, this will invite more bullying in the future. The only lesson bullies know is a hard punch in the face. I hope the Iranians device new weapons and bombs, don't mind them make a nuclear bomb as well. Even is the Zionist crazy enough, they won't be crazy until a dirty nuke goes off in Tel Aviv, they still need to preserve their lineage. Any self respecting ethnic group would do so. Even as crazy as Trump, he too loves Melania and his son....

 

[plawolf]

I think you're being too optimistic. The fact is, the US hasn't been hurt enough yet to back out of the fight, the current restraint is for moving its forces into place. Still, it's a good sign that Iran is not just sitting back and watch the US build up.

I wouldn’t really call the current US position restraint so much as impotence.

The US has managed to devolve into a one-trick pony where it genuinely doesn’t have a viable plan B if air strikes doesn’t work.

It had to basically abandon its air bases and other forward positions in the region because of their inability to effectively intercept Iranian ballistic missiles and cheap drones. More so now that the network of long range radar sites they had in place are all knocked out.

It’s for this exact same reason it isn’t massing ground troops. There is nowhere suitable for them to mass that is close enough to launch offensive operations from that won’t be massively vulnerable to Iranian missile and drone spam. And while casualties weren’t catastrophic with the strikes against US bases, that was because there was a very low density of personnel per square kilometre and plenty to prefabricated shelters for troops to duck into when the sirens go off. But the same cannot be same of a massive army comp in the middle of the desert. This is why the Pentagon was shopping around for prefab bomb shelters earlier, and since that went nowhere, the ground invasion is a total none starter now.

But all of this is missing the main point. Iran was never expecting to be able to cause the U.S. unbearable pain on the battlefield, instead where they will cause the US pain is on the economic side. The massive stock market losses played a big part in Trump loosing his nerve, and that is just the appetiser. The main hit is going to come when the oil and gas already underway at sea before the war started all gets used up.

The west had a 6 week grace period where it was still getting effectively the same oil and gas imports as before the war due to the tankers already at sea. But the last of those have now docked and unloaded, so the timer really is ticking now. Because even if shipments start against tomorrow, it’s going to be 6 weeks before they reach consumers in the west. In theory, had they used that grace period well and ended the war properly be now, their economies could have just about clung on using reserves and smuggled Russian oil and gas until fresh shipments arrived in 6 weeks time. But with the double blockade going on, that’s not happening and there is no plan B in any western nation to do anything about it. So it’s about to get real grim real quick. That’s when Iran’s negotiating power will start to peak.

I have to disagree here. Any US ground invasion is going to be very costly for the US. We just need to see the Israeli casualties in Lebannon for a microcosm of what will happen.

Well, as I said, I just assumed they won’t do something totally moronic. Might be a bad bet, but I have not seen any concrete signs that the U.S. really is trying to do a ground invasion, which is frankly utterly untenable right now with the forces and assets disposition. That may very well be deliberate where the Pentagon are taking secret steps to take the most idiotic options off the menu altogether.

The only two viable options available for boots on the ground action in Iran is either special forces (tried and failed already) and an amphibious assault backed up by airborne against one of Iran’s islands, Qeshm would appear the least suicidal. Any such attempt would be bloody, but there should be minimal risk that the US would face whole regiments being outright annihilated, and they should be able to pull their troops out when it does fail. They will suffer massive losses, but it won’t be close to the kind they suffered in Korea, so it won’t be record breaking.

 

[protonme18]

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Potential Strait of Hormuz withdrawal ‘hugely complex’ operation​

Retired British Army General Simon Mayall says any potential stand-down in the Strait of Hormuz detailed in a reported new memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington would be a highly intricate military operation.
Asked to describe the process of withdrawing forces from such a crowded and tense waterway, he stressed it is “hugely complex”.
“The Iranians have the advantage of being the force in situ. They have the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz, and they’ve obviously got depth,” Mayall, a former Middle East adviser to the UK Ministry of Defence, told Al Jazeera.
By contrast, he said, the US has assembled a “vast armada”, including three carrier groups, two Marine Expeditionary Units, the 82nd Airborne, etc.
Even a phased drawdown requires care, he warned. “The first thing we do, obviously, is lift the blockade. Still keep your forces there, but sooner or later, you’ve got to start rotating crews and ships. You’ve got to resupply them,” he said.

With no military background, I already identified the next target to be hit...Iran need to plan to hit the supply ships of the US navy. Whether those drones, missiles firing from the Yemen coast, to hit munition and fuel supply for the US forces there. They must be taught a lesson, this area and zone is not of your influence. Go back to bullying Venezuela. Houthis can be armed with sea skimming anti ship missiles so any supply mission cannot be pass thru the Red Sea. Buy a few of those mini submarines from North Korea to do the job.

 

[solarz]

It’s for this exact same reason it isn’t massing ground troops. There is nowhere suitable for them to mass that is close enough to launch offensive operations from that won’t be massively vulnerable to Iranian missile and drone spam. And while casualties weren’t catastrophic with the strikes against US bases, that was because there was a very low density of personnel per square kilometre and plenty to prefabricated shelters for troops to duck into when the sirens go off. But the same cannot be same of a massive army comp in the middle of the desert. This is why the Pentagon was shopping around for prefab bomb shelters earlier, and since that went nowhere, the ground invasion is a total none starter now.

According to various sources compiled by AI, the US currently has 60K forces near Iran. While that’s not nearly enough for an attack on Tehran, they might be planning to use them to secure the Strait instead, hence the focus on amphibious assault troops.

 

[4Tran]

According to various sources compiled by AI, the US currently has 60K forces near Iran. While that’s not nearly enough for an attack on Tehran, they might be planning to use them to secure the Strait instead, hence the focus on amphibious assault troops.

That's 60,000 for all troops in theater. The only sizable ground combat units are the two MEUs aboard Tripoli and Boxer, and the 1-2 battalions from the 82nd Airborne. That's under 10,000 ground troops and support personnel in total. It's enough to try to seize an island, but nothing more ambitious than that. There's also no good place to stage these troops from.