2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
No more bombs on Iranian soil, ceasefire indefinitely extended. Trump prefers economic blockade rather than bombing. So using your logic, Iran must be winning then.
“The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing,” Trump told Axios on Wednesday.
Let's see how long this lasts. Fact remains that US ships and planes keep accumulating around the region. Similar signs before the war started few months back.
And Trump can't afford to keep this 'stalemate' going because midterm election is coming. This blockade isnt doing him any favor from midterm effect (impeachment). He needs bigger distraction than that
After their Iranian bay of pigs failed, so now we will apply the Cuba model.
Do you remember in June 2025 US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran's nuclear program?
Trump declares unilateral victory, "Iran's nuclear program is obliterated, I won" and he ended all operations, then later kidnapped Maduro in Venezuela to distract.
It won't be the first time he declared unilateral victory when it's not true (Iran's nuclear program was delayed, but not obliterated).
Trump can unilaterally say : "I won, Iran's army/navy/leadership is obliterated, and Hormuz is wide open" and then move on to bully Cuba or bully Greenland or something.
In fact, the CIA is thinking just that.
Exclusive: US spy agencies examine how Iran would react to Trump declaring victory
US intelligence weighs Iranian response to potential Trump unilateral victory declaration
Trump faces intense pressure to end “costly” Iran war as unilateral victory plan considered
solarz
Brigadier
Doesn't matter if Iran is winning as long as it's bleeding the US economy and military capabilities.
Eh.. I think its not fair to compare these 2 events. One is much smaller than the other. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz this time. Declaring victory while Iran is still choking world economy and oil supply is totally not comparable from last year. I still failed to see how this save him from midterm if I were Trump.
One more thing, Iran already warned they will start preemptive attacks if blockade continues
Actually, Iran allows exit if you pay the toll, not unlike Suez or Panama or Bosphorous which also has a toll system. Nobody says Egypt, Panama, or Turkey is close their respective straits/canals, it's free to navigate if you pay the toll. So all Trump needs to do is declare victory, get humiliated as Iran gets a toll, then turn on kicking Cuba's butt like they did with Maduro to distract. Trump's poll rebounds, rinse and repeat on Greenland. It's the least worse out of the poor options available, which is get sucked into unwinnable ground invasion.
Pretty much this. US voters have goldfish memories and they'll fall for it time and time again.
Trump doesn't have too much time left, he should do it sooner, rather than later. In fact, I'd even stretch out the invasion/bombing of Cuba to stretch out the "good news" over the election period.
to be honest, Its difficult for me to guess what's the domino effect gonna look like if Cuba and Greenland are next. It will be a huge distraction yes, but is it really better than maintaining conflict with Iran (if I were trump)? I cant tell
Also, will the blockade persist if Trump declares victory in your scenario