2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[Ringsword]

Why do they call it sweet oil? They cookin' with this shit? How do they even know; who tasted it?

IIRC,it might be the sulphur content in it(lower the sweeter)-I too once thought of it as a cooking oil analogy,

 

[abenomics12345]

I'm just analyzing the potential harm of the oil crisis from an objective perspective.

As I noted very specifically, net benefit - that does not mean everyone wins - that means the oil companies and Trump's insider trading cronies win more at the expense of the bottom 50% of the country. This has been happening for the better part of the past 40-50 years - nothing suggests to me that a short period of 250 oil will change this dynamic. Yes the Democrats will win in Mid terms and likely in 2028 - but why would that change the underlying dynamic of how US works?

Remember Biden and his "America is back"?

I always thought you were someone who had the "American Dream."

Well you've clearly assumed wrong.

 

[AndrewS]

My guy, if oil is 250, people will die from starvation because fertilizers are too expensive to use in India/Bangladesh/Africa. I.e if a customer dies they don't exactly buy things anymore.

People will stop driving in the US, and yes people will stop buying things that they can't afford, including from China; even while the refiners keep gouging profit. Feature, not bug, of the US system. I'm all for fleshing out the gory details of how the US society continue crumble as a result of this, but that is a 5-10 year process that's already underway.

The rest of the world operates on capitalism where yes, the poor will suffer from not being able to afford shit. Affordable childcare and healthcare is already a luxury in the US - is it difficult to imagine that a steak will become a luxury? What about cheap TVs from China?

If oil is at 250, a big portion of oil demand at 100/120 will have gone away (i.e they cannot afford it, or their SE Asian economy imploded) such that oil via the ocean is readily available again for the richer/better off countries. I.e you would never bother to ship oil via the train because you can just buy it at the going price.

If the condition of 250 oil is because the US actually blockaded Chinese oil for 6 months, then as I've said many times before rare earth ban + blockade of Taiwan would be likely the response in which INDOPACOM gets to find out how DF missiles cooks them.

Shipping oil from Iran via rail is like virtue signaling.

Most Ammonia production is from natural gas, whose prices can be decoupled from oil
But let's say oil is at $250, then Ammonia increases from $600/tonne to over $1500?

At that price, Green Ammonia should be competitive with a cost of $600-$800?
But the problem is that it takes 18-24 months for a green ammonia plant to be built, even in China.

---

In the meantime, I would like to think that China could spare some of its grain reserves to prevent mass starvation caused by the US attacking Iran.

Providing a billion people with an extra 500 calories per day for a year would require ~75 million tonnes of grain.
China has ~700 million tonnes in total in reserve, and is the only country in the world to have built out significant emergency grain reserves.

 

[Puss in Boots]

As I noted very specifically, net benefit - that does not mean everyone wins - that means the oil companies and Trump's insider trading cronies win more at the expense of the bottom 50% of the country. This has been happening for the better part of the past 40-50 years - nothing suggests to me that a short period of 250 oil will change this dynamic. Yes the Democrats will win in Mid terms and likely in 2028 - but why would that change the underlying dynamic of how US works?

Remember Biden and his "America is back"?



Well you've clearly assumed wrong.

Quantitative change leads to qualitative change. Previously, society could tolerate this inequality because the US could extract profits from the world, only needing to provide a pittance to the lower classes to live comfortably. But now, many in the lower classes are barely making ends meet even with two jobs a day. Do you think this situation can continue?
Although you don't admit to having the "American Dream," subconsciously you still condone this system's exploitation of the lower classes.
You still believe the American system is unbreakable, and you think America won't change because it's only a little over two hundred years old and hasn't even experienced a major social upheaval, so you can't imagine what might happen!

 

[GZDRefugee]

I don't understand what you're trying to say.
I've always said that war should not be started lightly unless absolutely necessary, and the Korean War perfectly fits that condition!
The current situation is that China can contain the United States in many ways without war, so why do you keep insisting that China escalate the conflict?

So why did you bring up the quip about how those with nothing left to lose love to gamble? Who is this feckless gambler in your analogy? Who is America trying to extract value from?

I fail to see how a naval escort is escalatory. This is a regional mission that the PLAN has committed to since 2008. It is the US that would be escalatory if they interdicted legal maritime trade under some bogus claim about paying tolls to a geopolitical rival.

 

[abenomics12345]

Do you think this situation can continue?

Tell me when Japan stops being America's vassal and I'll let you know when it ends. After so called emancipation, how long were black people treated as second class citizens in the US before they actually protested and pushed for change?

Although you don't admit to having the "American Dream," subconsciously you still condone this system's exploitation of the lower classes.
You still believe the American system is unbreakable, and you think America won't change because it's only a little over two hundred years old and hasn't even experienced a major social upheaval, so you can't imagine what might happen!

I do not believe the concept of American Dream exists anymore, and I am very much envisioning a scenario where America undergoes social upheaval - but you are absolutely mistaken to suggest America hasn't experienced that. (Civil Rights movement, Civil War, BLM in 2020)

Do keep in mind that it took decades for the British Empire to truly sunset even after it was clear it was done. But guess what, talk to the British today and they still think they matter!

Most Ammonia production is from natural gas, whose prices can be decoupled from oil
But let's say oil is at $250, then Ammonia increases from $600/tonne to over $1500?

At that price, Green Ammonia should be competitive with a cost of $600-$800?
But the problem is that it takes 18-24 months for a green ammonia plant to be built, even in China.

---

In the meantime, I would like to think that China could spare some of its grain reserves to prevent mass starvation caused by the US attacking Iran.

Providing a billion people with an extra 500 calories per day for a year would require ~75 million tonnes of grain.
China has ~700 million tonnes in total in reserve, and is the only country in the world to have built out significant emergency grain reserves.

NOLA is already 700/ton on the spot so at this point Green Ammonia probably starts to work already. I don't know what ZNH will or won't do but there are tradeoffs - planting season is happening as we speak so the effects for next 12 months are more or less baked in.

 

[iewgnem]

That is just blatantly false. China had everything to lose as a nascent socialist republic. The industrial capacity in Manchuria was too valuable to allow American bases to be in proximity. Thus China put everything on the line to establish a buffer state.

Read your damn military history.

I think the real question is what other options did China had back in 1950 and what impact an American occupied Korea had on Chinese security, vs what options China has today and how much impact ME oil shock has on China. Fact of the matter is the impact on China right now is simply not high enough and availability of other option not scarce enough for it to be worthwhile to go to war with America, at least not yet.

For starters the entire world is starving of oil, so with privileged access to Russian energy, land corridor to Iran, and dominance of both EVs and renewable, this is more an opportunity for China to further its dominance of global energy. The profit from EV and renewable export can also be used to out bid every drop of non-ME oil to drive countries like Japan, Korea and Europe out of the game altogether.

Majority of ME oil that China imports come from GCC countries and physical destruction of energy infrastructure already fundamentally changed the calculus, the impact of an American sea-born blockade on Iran ontop doesn't materially change much. But even if China cares enough about the America portion, there is an extremely long list of things China can blocade America from accessing to force their hand.

I mean let's not forget Chinese export in 2025 was $3.77 trillion and China's export to the US in 2025 was $400B, while total revenue from OPEC+US oil export was only $650B. China's trade surplus alone was 2x OPEC+US oil revenue. Just the amount of pain China can apply to America just by blockading industrial goods at Chinese ports can do far more damage than sinking a few ships, if you add Taiwan to the list it can easily become apocalyptic for America without China firing a single shot.

And even if you were to decide to go to war, it would tactically still be much better to blockade American access to industral good for 6 month first.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Most Ammonia production is from natural gas.
But let's say oil is at $250, then Ammonia increases from $600/tonne to over $1500?

At that price, Green Ammonia should be competitive with a cost of $600-$800?
But the problem is that it takes 18-24 months for a green ammonia plant to be built in China.

Natural gas is not really an issue, shale production can be expanded. China actually has the largest shale gas reserves in the world, over twice as much as the US.

In the meantime, I would like to think that China could spare some of its grain reserves to prevent mass starvation caused by the US attacking Iran.

Providing a billion people with an extra 500 calories per day for a year would require ~75 million tonnes of grain.
China has ~700 million tonnes in total in reserve, and is the only country in the world to have built out significant emergency grain reserves.

Selectively, to certain countries of course.

 

[Puss in Boots]

So why did you bring up the quip about how those with nothing left to lose love to gamble? Who is this feckless gambler in your analogy? Who is America trying to extract value from?

I fail to see how a naval escort is escalatory. This is a regional mission that the PLAN has committed to since 2008. It is the US that would be escalatory if they interdicted legal maritime trade under some bogus claim about paying tolls to a geopolitical rival.

A person who has nothing doesn't enjoy gambling; rather, he's forced to gamble and therefore unafraid of it. Please don't arbitrarily distort my statements.
Escalating conflict refers to a shift in China's current situation, from a state of relatively independent development to one of near-war with the United States. This isn't a moral judgment, but rather a description of the change in China's circumstances.

 

[GZDRefugee]

A person who has nothing doesn't enjoy gambling; rather, he's forced to gamble and therefore unafraid of it. Please don't arbitrarily distort my statements.
Escalating conflict refers to a shift in China's current situation, from a state of relatively independent development to one of near-war with the United States. This isn't a moral judgment, but rather a description of the change in China's circumstances.

Not gonna lie, I don't think your analogy lands. The US is in a lose-lose situation and China has relatively little to lose in comparison.

Again, China's posture has not shifted. It has escorted merchant shipping in the Horn of Africa region since 2008. This is a legitimate mission with multinational support. The US devolving to piracy is the destabilizing factor.