2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[AndrewS]

As long as time is on China's side, it is in China's interests to delay as long as possible. You only get one shot at overturning the existing world order, with countries like Germany and Japan serving as chilling reminders of the consequences of failure. Germany and Japan found themselves in a situation where time was not on their side (twice in the case of Germany), found themselves boxed in across both time and space, and were forced to pursue war under unfavorable conditions, ultimately leading to the destruction and subjugation of their nations. On the other hand, the US and USSR did have time on their side, delayed their entry into the war as much as possible, ultimately emerging as the two biggest winners.

Remember that it is the US which is overturning the existing world order (which the USA itself created), in favour of a world with no rules or morality, with the US being the most militarily powerful predatory empire. But that is so short-sighted.

In contrast, China (and indeed, the vast majority of the world) wants to retain much of the existing system.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

My premise is that the US will not respond to Chinese naval escort of its merchant shipping through the Hormuz. I think it's worthwhile to openly challenge the blockade to demonstrate to the world that the US is a paper tiger. China gets its oil and the US is powerless to stop it. Who knows, the humiliation might bait the US into committing to a ground invasion.

No, China should not take unilateral action. Wait for global sentiment towards US to worsen further then consider opportunities for multilateral action if they present themselves.

 

[Puss in Boots]

That's crazy. China had more balls back in 1950 than they do today. You think the PVA was afraid of getting nuked when they handed the US the longest retreat in their military history to them?

THAAD, and by extension American ballistic missile defense, is already attrited. Iran already demonstrated the US cannot protect their early warning sensors. America's nuclear defenses are actually spotty right now and China is in the best position it's ever been in with respect to nuclear parity.

Do you know why penniless people are never afraid to gamble? Because they have nothing left to lose. And America can't extract enough reward from someone who has nothing.

At first probably similar to South China Sea. If intercepted they will try to do defiant and close approach to US warships to scare US sailors to spice up the situation a little, the US would call those "unsafe". If the US open fire then the situation could escalate pretty bad and Iran would be the least of the problems. China is likely to have Song Class submarines there.

There is a fundamental difference between the South China Sea and the Middle East, and I don't think I need to explain that further!

 

[GZDRefugee]

Do you know why penniless people are never afraid to gamble? Because they have nothing left to lose. And America can't extract enough reward from someone who has nothing.

That is just blatantly false. China had everything to lose as a nascent socialist republic. The industrial capacity in Manchuria was too valuable to allow American bases to be in proximity. Thus China put everything on the line to establish a buffer state.

Read your damn military history.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

The industrial capacity in Manchuria was too valuable to allow American bases to be in proximity.

You do realize in 1945, 100% of the industrial machinery and tools in Manchuria were packed up and shipped to the USSR? Soviet engineers didnt begin helping China set up industry until after the start of the Korean war.

 

[Puss in Boots]

That is just blatantly false. China had everything to lose as a nascent socialist republic. The industrial capacity in Manchuria was too valuable to allow American bases to be in proximity. Thus China put everything on the line to establish a buffer state.

Read your damn military history.

I don't understand what you're trying to say.
I've always said that war should not be started lightly unless absolutely necessary, and the Korean War perfectly fits that condition!
The current situation is that China can contain the United States in many ways without war, so why do you keep insisting that China escalate the conflict?

 

[abenomics12345]

The suffering of the poor isn't just about not being able to afford a TV!

In America, if the poor can't afford gas, they struggle to find suitable work. With rising food prices and housing costs, those living on the poverty line will soon be homeless.

Don't try to downplay the impact of this oil crisis on the American economy. When social tensions reach a breaking point, someone will be thinking of buying a rope and hanging people like you, who are oblivious to the hardships of ordinary people, from a lamppost.

Hahaha, that is the most moronic invention that I have ever heard of. One more gold medal of mental gymnastic.

Louis XVI had the same feature in his France, Nicolas II had that feature in his Russia. You should pay visits to them and ask how well the feature worked for them.

I'm not in America nor am I American so I don't give a shit about Americans. But if you are so concerned about Americans you should lead them to revolt. All the power to you. Or if you are in America, it sucks to suck.

I've explicitly laid out how America works from the perspective of a 3rd party observer, if that is too hard for you to accept in context of how precious your understanding of how the aMeRiCaN dReAm looks, then too bad, it sucks to suck.

If society really does crumble and die in the US and across the West and Japan - then what will the ruling class in the US rule over? You think Trump's goal is to bring about destruction of Western civilization? Yes, life is miserable for bottom third of US society, but things are still tolerable for the middle third, and the top third still enjoy better material conditions than the overwhelming majority of people on Earth.

Has Japan not been cucking hard the past 4 years with high inflation and still asskissing Trump?

Trump's goal is to enrich himself and his cronies - he doesn't really care about anything else, including if it accidentally leads to the buries the seed of destruction of Western modernity. He bankrupted himself multiple times as a casino operator/real estate developer now he gets to try it with a country and he still has 2.5 more years.

All he cares about is the stock market and if its going up its fine in his books. And by the way America as an energy exporter is a net beneficiary from oil/gas price going up - it just so happens Trump and the ruling class benefits more at the expense of the bottom third and as you mentioned, now the middle third (Think the movie About Time with Justin Timberlake).

 

[GZDRefugee]

You do realize in 1945, 100% of the industrial machinery and tools in Manchuria were packed up and shipped to the USSR? Soviet engineers didnt begin helping China set up industry until after the start of the Korean war.

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Untrue. Section 1 of the article. Straight from the Chinese government.

 

[tokenanalyst]

There is a fundamental difference between the South China Sea and the Middle East, and I don't think I need to explain that further!

I´m saying what is the least escalatory approach that China may do. Is up to the US to decide if the want to escalate who I think may not had the desire to do that. That will depends of the circumstances of course.

 

[Puss in Boots]

I'm not in America nor am I American so I don't give a shit about Americans. But if you are so concerned about Americans you should lead them to revolt. All the power to you. Or if you are in America, it sucks to suck.

I've explicitly laid out how America works from the perspective of a 3rd party observer, if that is too hard for you to accept in context of how precious your understanding of how the aMeRiCaN dReAm looks, then too bad, it sucks to suck.


Has Japan not been cucking hard the past 4 years with high inflation and still asskissing Trump?

Trump's goal is to enrich himself and his cronies - he doesn't really care about anything else, including if it accidentally leads to the buries the seed of destruction of Western modernity. He bankrupted himself multiple times as a casino operator/real estate developer now he gets to try it with a country and he still has 2.5 more years.

All he cares about is the stock market and if its going up its fine in his books. And by the way America as an energy exporter is a net beneficiary from oil/gas price going up - it just so happens Trump and the ruling class benefits more at the expense of the bottom third and as you mentioned, now the middle third (Think the movie About Time with Justin Timberlake).

This is how most countries in the world operate; the United States is not an exception. Therefore, don't assume that the phenomena I'm describing here will only occur in the US.
I don't care what the Americans do; I'm just analyzing the potential harm of the oil crisis from an objective perspective.
On the contrary, I think you've been trying to downplay the potential impact on the United States. I always thought you were someone who had the "American Dream."