2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[abenomics12345]

But US primarily produces light sweet crude from shale, while most of heavy sour crude is imported (from KSA, Canada, and Mexico). So while two of the sources of US heavy sour crude are not impacted directly by Strait of Hormuz, they are still traded at market prices, even if they do come from neighboring countries (for now, as logical next steps for Trump to further increase US control over global energy supplies would be to go after those two countries).

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is at a massive discount to WTI/Brent and will continue to remain so until the next pipeline (if ever) gets built in Canada (I'm not sure about you but I wouldn't hold my breath) - the dynamic is no different from Teapots in Shandong buying discounted Iranian crude. This is also excluding the solidified bitumen (you need to actually mix in diluent to have synthetic bitumen or dilbit for it to move through the pipelines) that gets shipped via rail directly from Canada to Gulf Coast which is at an even bigger discount to WTI.

You living in NY are likely getting fked because refineries like Valero/Tesoro are gouging you on the crack spread. People in California are getting fked because California imports refined products @ Brent prices. Last I checked neither of these regions are exactly Trumps base of support so why does he care about how people on the coast think about him?

Buddy, does your notes also tell you 70% of US refining capacity is heavy while shale oil is light? lol
Oh and while you're at it, look up if ME oil is mostly light or heavy.

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Did you magically blockade Keystone or Enbridge Line 3 in your fantasy world? Or Express-Platte? Or Mainline? Did you bomb Sarnia? Or Cushing?

Abject embarrassment of understanding how the real world works.

 

[bebops]

If Iran is already winning without China flooding it with large quantities of fully Chinese-made drones and missiles, for example, then imagine what happens if that ever changes, even slightly. At that point, Trump would basically just be inviting even more humiliation onto himself and the US - giving China full justification.

Iran is not isolated. It borders nearly a dozen countries by land. China-Iran rail transit already hit record levels last year, more than 5 million tonnes, moving through friendly territory in roughly 15 days.

And this is not like last year’s trade war, where China answered with rare earth restrictions and other economic pressure. Seizing Chinese ships this time would be a direct kinetic act of war, 100%, in the real world.

And when China responds, it will respond in the smartest way possible, not by playing to America’s naval far seas strengths, but by using its own real advantage, enormous manufacturing scale. And various types of offensive and defensive weapons are exactly what Iran needs to finish the job of destroying the US even faster and cleaner.

China could really flood Iran with MANPADS to down even more US planes, better anti-ship missiles to break a "blockade," and FPV drones for the ground war. While ballistic strikes at GCC with Chinese missiles carry risks, hitting Israel harder serves one goal: forcing the US to capitulate faster. Given the massive scale of China’s arsenal, supplying Iran with enough firepower to execute the US would barely even dent its stockpiles.

Many parts of a Russian drones came form China. It would be possible to have Russia send drone parts through the Caspian Sea.

Russia has been delivering hundreds of thousands ton of humanitarian aid. It might be a ruse to ship parts and weapon into Iran included medical aid and food..

 

[manqiangrexue]

But US primarily produces light sweet crude from shale, while most of heavy sour crude is imported (from KSA, Canada, and Mexico). So while two of the sources of US heavy sour crude are not impacted directly by Strait of Hormuz, they are still traded at market prices, even if they do come from neighboring countries (for now, as logical next steps for Trump to further increase US control over global energy supplies would be to go after those two countries).

Why do they call it sweet oil? They cookin' with this shit? How do they even know; who tasted it?

 

[iewgnem]

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is at a massive discount to WTI/Brent and will continue to remain so until the next pipeline (if ever) gets built in Canada (I'm not sure about you but I wouldn't hold my breath) - the dynamic is no different from Teapots in Shandong buying discounted Iranian crude. This is also excluding the solidified bitumen (you need to actually mix in diluent to have synthetic bitumen or dilbit for it to move through the pipelines) that gets shipped via rail directly from Canada to Gulf Coast which is at an even bigger discount to WTI.

You living in NY are likely getting fked because refineries like Valero/Tesoro are gouging you on the crack spread. People in California are getting fked because California imports refined products @ Brent prices. Last I checked neither of these regions are exactly Trumps base of support so why does he care about how people on the coast think about him?

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View attachment 173468

Did you magically blockade Keystone or Enbridge Line 3 in your fantasy world? Or Express-Platte? Or Mainline? Did you bomb Sarnia? Or Cushing?

Abject embarrassment of understanding how the real world works.

So you figured out SA's oil is heavy? You're really just learning as you go aren't you? lol
Did you also look up how much oil US imports from ME like I told you? Tell me how do you plan on making up the difference from Canada if the pipelines are maxed out. That's right, rail, lol

Welcome to the real world governed by physics buddy.

 

[abenomics12345]

So you figured out SA's oil is heavy? You're really just learning as you go aren't you? lol
Did you also look up how much oil US imports from ME like I told you? Tell me how do you plan on making up the difference from Canada if the pipelines are maxed out. That's right, rail, lol

Welcome to the real world governed by physics buddy.

Do you have also have memory degradation/context window limitation like a has been LLM? How does crude by rail being viable in North America in any way shape or form relate to your supposed viability of crude by rail from Iran to China?

Abject embarrassment.

Edmonton/Hardisty to Mexico is *checks notes* largely flat plains whereas Iran to China is *checks note* highly mountainous. Let alone different rail width. No difference at all. For all your talk about 'real things' you sure love to ignore the difference in gradient of track and geography.

 

[iewgnem]

Do you have also have memory degradation/context window limitation like a has been LLM? How does crude by rail being viable in North America in any way shape or form relate to your supposed viability of crude by rail from Iran to China?

Abject embarrassment.

Oh right, I remember now, you thought it's the terrain that makes the difference, because up hill hard lol
Stick to counting shekels buddy, the real world isn't your forte.

 

[manqiangrexue]

UAE asked China to cut ties with Iran. China said no.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2044072340141813797

UEA has a 3 foot long turd for a brain to even make this request. Probably couldn't read past the cover page of The Art of War. Are they not aware that China's main enemy is the US and the enemy of my enemy is my friend?

 

[abenomics12345]

Oh right, I remember now, you thought it's the terrain that makes the difference, because up hill hard lol
Stick to counting shekels buddy, the real world isn't your forte.

Your LLM was trained without physical understanding of moving oil 10000km on trains is....not feasible. If its such a great idea why don't you go build it - I'll ship oil on it once you finish the construction of the infrastructure.

UEA has a 3 foot long turd for a brain to even make this request. Probably couldn't read past the cover page of The Art of War. Are they not aware that China's main enemy is the US and the enemy of my enemy is my friend?

You realize GBX_Press was one of the accounts promoting the Dong Jun fake news? If you listened to the actual CCTV news + read the MFA readout there was no such thing as mentioned in the tweet from GBX Press. Why are mods tolerating this clear garbage being posted?

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习近平就维护和促进中东和平稳定提出4点主张：一是坚持和平共处原则。中东海湾国家唇齿相依，是搬不走的邻居。要支持中东海湾国家改善关系，推动构建共同、综合、合作、可持续的中东和海湾地区安全架构，筑牢和平共处的根基。二是坚持国家主权原则。主权是各国特别是广大发展中国家安身立命的依托，不容侵犯。中东海湾国家主权、安全和领土完整应当得到切实尊重，各国人员、设施、机构安全应当得到切实维护。三是坚持国际法治原则。维护国际法治权威，不能“合则用、不合则弃”，不能让世界倒回丛林法则。要坚定维护以联合国为核心的国际体系、以国际法为基础的国际秩序、以联合国宪章宗旨和原则为基础的国际关系基本准则。四是坚持统筹发展和安全。安全是发展的前提，发展是安全的保障。各方都应该为中东海湾国家发展营造良好环境、注入正能量。中方愿同中东海湾国家分享中国式现代化机遇，厚植地区发展和安全土壤。

 

[plawolf]

Oh right, I remember now, you thought it's the terrain that makes the difference, because up hill hard lol
Stick to counting shekels buddy, the real world isn't your forte.

You guys know you are trying to reason with another Sleepy zombie right? Guy has been banned numerous times for being an idiot who cannot be reasoned with but who seems to be unemployed and have infinite time to waste.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Why do they call it sweet oil? They cookin' with this shit? How do they even know; who tasted it?

Yes, in fact the secret to making perfect sweet and sour pork involves knowing the proportions of sweet light oil and sour heavy oil.