2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[horse]

The most perplexing aspect of the ceasefire is why Iran suddenly became willing to negotiate.

The United States would certainly not agree to Iran's demands, nor would Iran naively believe that the United States would accept them. So what led them to this sudden consensus?

I believe it is just logic.

As of today, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and destroyed the great majority of US bases in the region.

This point, will not change. Unless the Americans come back with a World War II type of army, which they will not.

So, logically, what else is Iran fighting for now at this stage? This was an immense strategic victory. They control the choke-point now.

The rationale for those US bases in the GCC, was to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, which meant the Americans were expected to do that job. That did not happen. Not only the strait is closed, but the Americans are gone too.

That is the second logical point. If it did not work, why would do that again? So, the American bases are not coming back. Furthermore, if they are coming back, there are no rare earths to build those radars.

Haha! Haha! Haha! Haha!

Another point, which is only going on logic, but we need facts, and this is my best estimation of the facts, is that President Trump was never fully committed to this war. Sure, if it was easy, he go do it. Once it started, then he found out how hard it was, so logically he had to find a way out.

So that is it.

1. Iran achieved a strategic victory ie Strait of Hormuz, and the American bases are not coming back anytime soon and probably might be forever. In short, Iran cannot improve much more on these gains
2. America only wanted a quick easy war that they win. Short wars that are won was the only choice here, otherwise, don't do it.

Once they, meaning both sides, start to bomb civilian infrastructure, which are not centers of gravity, you know it is over.

 

[broadsword]

Animated reconstruction of the failed mission

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2041814693178712248

Where are the pictures of the dead Americans?

 

[horse]

Personally I don't think Israel/US had yet reached such a point of desperation that they would resort to nukes, it's too early for that.

They strongly hinted at that.

Start listening to the video at the 12:10 mark, for a couple of minutes.

 

[horse]

So what is the end state here? Just total destruction of Iranian, Israeli and Gulf states infrastructure followed by a massive global recession?

Yup, if the ceasefire does not stick, then that is all we have, destroyed societies and a massive global recession, except for China.

That is why using a nuke is risky. It would be like not the end of the war but more war, one way or another, which will lead to the same outcome of destroyed societies and global recession/depression almost.

When the two atomic bombs were dropped on Japan, that war was coming to an end anyways.

This war just started.

And it is already stalemated.

 

[horse]

China likely has no direct role in this drama.

Both sides use China as excuse and weight.

I tend to agree, China is just a bystander in all of this.

Then sometimes, someone standing across the street on the sidewalk shouts out some free advice.

It happens.

So in a few years we probably going to hear the story, or non-story.

 

[obj 705A]

So Iran essentially just threw Lebanon under the bus.

Iranian Vice President: We are ready to respond to any ceasefire violation

The Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA) quoted the Iranian vice president as saying that his country is prepared to respond to any violation of the ceasefire, adding that any breach "will be met with a decisive, immediate, and painful response."

He also expressed hope that the negotiations would reach a conclusive outcome.

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________________________________________

He is talking as if the ceasefire so far isn't breached and if it is breached they will respond.
Israel has been bombing Lebanon nonstop since yesterday. Yet this clown says "we will respond to any breach". Can't you see Israel has been "breaching" this "ceasefire" nonstop for more than a day now?

His statement basically means Iran has accepeted a ceasefire that doesn't include Lebanon even though not just Iran but even the Pakistanis said it was supposed to include Lebanon.

If Iran doesn't respond as soon as militarily possible then that means they have basically accepted the idea of allowing Israel to seperate the battlefields so Israel can focus on each one at a time. Like a pack of wolves that seperate a bull from the herd while the herd just stands & watches the wolves tear him apart. I mean hey we have a ceasefire so let us just watch our friend who got singled out by the pack of wolves while we negotiate.

And what kind of message does that send to Hezbolah and it's popular base when they see Iran not doing anything to help them? If this keeps on going then eventually the Lebanese Shia elements that describe Hezbolah's military wing as more of a liability than an asset and who call for disarming Hezbolah will become more popular among the Shia population.

So far the IRGC has performed well by acting on it's own regardless of whatever Iranian politicians say. However ever since Trump's threat to kill "the entire Iranian civilization" it seems the IRGC has taken a backseat allowing these politicians to take in charge.

The IRGC needs to get it's act together and continue the attacks on Israel regardless of what these politicians say.

The only acceptable excuse Iran could have for not attacking Israel is if Iran is currently recieving weapon shipments from Russia so they need as long of period of peace as possible just for Iran to restock and re arm before restarting an active war effort.

 

[sheogorath]

Keep in mind it is a Qatari state-run news quoting ISNA which is a reformist joint, so they have a vested interest in pushing and boosting certain narratives, though. Plus the vice president is appointed by the president, so its all reformists and thus their opinion hold little value since they aren't the ones currently running the country.

 

[protonme18]

both China and the Soviet Union supported Vietnam, where the US had over 500,000 troops by the middle of the war. Same on a much smaller scale with the Afghans, where Pakistan supported an insurgency, and the US had troops all over the place.

Iran is not like that. The US is mainly sticking to the air and some raids. There is no massive ground invasion yet. Iran also gets to restock and breathe. This mostly looks like a slow decline of the US, not a decisive defeat.

The US might crumble if they go with a ground invasion, since that invites everyone, from China & Russia all the way to Afghan tribal militias to support Iran.

No regime change can happen without troops on the ground. There's one storyline that says Trump was "misled" into the war by Israel and Hegseth that given enough Air pressure and decapitation of the current Iranian regime leaders, the internal anti-regime forces will take over and a situation like the balkanization of Yugoslavia (1990–1992) where they break apart into smaller states happens. This means, there will be Kurds states, Baloch states, inner Persians, Azeris conclave and so on. This was the masterplan but did not happen. They still betting on that, and waiting and waiting for the internal forces to man up and take over. Several signals were sent, Trump keep calling and repeating the internal Iranian forces to rise up and take over. Did not happen.....what happen is US bases in GCC got bloodied, and Israel got bloodied by missile strikes and Hormuz falls into control of the Iranians.

 

[protonme18]

Laughable they argue over 10 points, 15 points, this point and that point. Why not just add 1 more point Lebanon into it, since already they are bombing each other. What is there so difficult to add 1 more points. Basically all this ceasefire nonsense is restocking of the munitions. For Israel, they can't chew gum and walk at the same time especially handling 3 fronts, the Iranians, Hezbollah north, the Houthis South.....with the ceasefire they got at least 1 side stop, the Houthis are irrelevant due lower tempo of strike each they sent out and manageable by the IDF. Problem with the North Hezbollahs more urgent as closer and direct ground threat. The military goal of obtaining water source from Litani River also for expanding Lebensraum living space and population to thrive for the Jewish people. As they say water is the source of all life especially in the middle east. It's a very important goal. Both water and Hezbollah are twin goals and of the highest priority. Since Israel manage to bring in US to try deindustrialized Iranians and got bloodied nose themselves, why not revert to their original war goals of eliminating the Hezbollah to the North and get to the river source. The entire excursion of involving the US into direct conflict with Iran, is just a luck try for several years already with different US administration, Israel got lucky they got the Trump administration this round............and they go for it. That's why you always hear the term, military goals, of 2 weeks, 3 weeks on the war with Iran. Israel is borrowing the strength of US to degrade Iranian industrial capacities and push it back for several decades. That's the war aim, hence the 2 weeks, 3 weeks ending you keep hearing about. Not about Uranium and all that nonsense.

The TRUE war goals of US and Israel "special military operation" and estimate operation

1. Degrade Iranian industrial capacity for war - Estimate time (3~4 weeks) You keep hearing this number.
2. Claim territory up to Litani River border and destroy Hezbollah along the ways - Estimate time ( 2~3 months).
3. Instigate regime change and population uprising, balkanization of Iran - Estimate time (>6 months) Long shot goal

Assumption, mission status
1. Capitulation strikes succeed thru good intel and internal spy.
2. Major industrial strikes half succeed thru good targeting, however missed many key components where key industries are buried deep underground
3. Population uprising mission fail, due reverse situation happening where population tend to round the flag when attacked. This boosted the regime and opposition against invaders

Missed or Overlook Risked
1. Decentralized defendsive strategy blunted decapitation strike
2. Iranian preparedness and thoroughness of counter attacking
3. Flawed weapons/missiles capabilities and stocks analysis by Pentagon/IDF
4. Asymetric warfare tactic employed, known quantity but still does it anyway
5. Assistance from hidden backers (Russia mostly, secondary China), known but unsure how deep. The false bonhomie between Putin and Trump, my good friend Xi means nothing
6. Drastic accuracy and improvement of Iranian weapons delivery system.....completely different from 12 days war

 

[another505]

I believe it is just logic.

As of today, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and destroyed the great majority of US bases in the region.

This point, will not change. Unless the Americans come back with a World War II type of army, which they will not.

So, logically, what else is Iran fighting for now at this stage? This was an immense strategic victory. They control the choke-point now.

The rationale for those US bases in the GCC, was to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, which meant the Americans were expected to do that job. That did not happen. Not only the strait is closed, but the Americans are gone too.

That is the second logical point. If it did not work, why would do that again? So, the American bases are not coming back. Furthermore, if they are coming back, there are no rare earths to build those radars.

Haha! Haha! Haha! Haha!

Another point, which is only going on logic, but we need facts, and this is my best estimation of the facts, is that President Trump was never fully committed to this war. Sure, if it was easy, he go do it. Once it started, then he found out how hard it was, so logically he had to find a way out.

So that is it.

1. Iran achieved a strategic victory ie Strait of Hormuz, and the American bases are not coming back anytime soon and probably might be forever. In short, Iran cannot improve much more on these gains
2. America only wanted a quick easy war that they win. Short wars that are won was the only choice here, otherwise, don't do it.

Once they, meaning both sides, start to bomb civilian infrastructure, which are not centers of gravity, you know it is over.

It is hard to imagine any US president to give up GCC, the strait and the basing, except this is Trump.


2hrs ago this was reported.
What I am displeased that Iran will accept Israel to keep attacking Lebanon in this ceasefire, I hope that they are restructuring for a more potent response than the the usual few ballistic missile with submunitions that does minimal damage.

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