2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[Serb]

Of course, this was stated by others before me. But let me repeat it again. 9th point of the purported ceasefire asserts that the USA withdraws all its military from the middle east. That won't happen, period. What could may very well happen, though, is the American and Israeli air forces get required maintenance, supplies and strike again with greater Force. Iran has lost and pathetically calls it a victory. They should have done a preemptive strike 2 months ago to level the situation. But I think Iranian establishment is so infiltrated by the American and Israeli Intel agencies that Iran can't make a decision which limits powers of the USA and Israel. How has the new president survived the assassinations when he was walking freely in Tehran and all others sitting, hiding in bunkers got busted? Iran has failed in counterintelligence business. Objectively speaking, Iran should have taken care of the counterintelligence affairs years ago. They didn't, so they pay a heavy price now. I am personally on the American and Israeli side. So, Iranian defeat is ok with me. I just hate higher oil prices.

Imagine the greatest millitary in galaxy losing to Iran's $10.3 billion military budget and suing for peace in 1 month.

This shows the most inefficient military in human history. The whole world witnessed the US's self-destruction in Iran.

The only thing saving the US right now from total collapse and humiliation is its giant nuclear arsenal compared to Iran's.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2041778503599657265

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2041715028663865471

 

[enroger]

Well, yes my point is that he and his team in general are incompetent.

You seem unwilling to consider that instead of incompetence it is in fact malice? How many acts of perfidy has the US conducted so far, I've lost count. Simple statistical analysis would tell you there is a high chance this is going to be yet another act of perfidy.

I suspect we are going to see him react poorly.

Of this we're in agreement, for different reason perhaps.

 

[obj 705A]

The most perplexing aspect of the ceasefire is why Iran suddenly became willing to negotiate.

The United States would certainly not agree to Iran's demands, nor would Iran naively believe that the United States would accept them. So what led them to this sudden consensus?

Have you not read Trump's statements?
He said he may decide to kill the entire Iranian civilization in one night.
Bombing just some oil and electricity generation facilities doesn't kill an entire civilization in one night.
This was a veiled threat that he would fully nuke Iran's 90 million population. That is how you end an entire civilization in one night.

Personally I don't think Israel/US had yet reached such a point of desperation that they would resort to nukes, it's too early for that. However the Iranians took the threat seriously and chickened out, They can thank the previous Khamenei and his fatwa forbbiding obtaining nuclear weapons for that.

 

[protonme18]

Some IRGC commanders didn't get the ceasefire memo....so, ballistic missiles still ongoing to area of Israel....

 

[Blitzo]

You seem unwilling to consider that instead of incompetence it is in fact malice? How many acts of perfidy has the US conducted so far, I've lost count. Simple statistical analysis would tell you there is a high chance this is going to be yet another act of perfidy.

If the goal was to be malicious, this would be a very stupid and roundabout way of doing it. There would be many more productive ways and less self-defeating ways (in terms of reputation) to carry out malice than... whatever the heck this is.

 

[enroger]

If the goal was to be malicious, this would be a very stupid and roundabout way of doing it. There would be many more productive ways and less self-defeating ways (in terms of reputation) to carry out malice than... whatever the heck this is.

You've already established their incompetence, so stupid and roundabout way of doing malice is on brand, Trump thrive on exactly this kind of betrayal as demonstrated by his track record. Remember the countless occasions US asked for negotiation then use the opportunity to either bomb the negotiator or bomb the leaders? This is obviously extremely damaging to US reputation yet they did it anyway.

 

[sheogorath]

What could may very well happen, though, is the American and Israeli air forces get required maintenance, supplies and strike again with greater Force.

What supplies can they get, exactly?. Bases in the middle east won't be rebuilt in two weeks and the militias in Iraq aren't included in the ceasefires so they might as well keep hammering them; enough JASSMs, Tomahawks and AD interceptors won't materialize out of the ether in two weeks either, the Ford won't be coming back in two weeks, etc.

And if anything, Iran has better chances of ressuplying and moving equipment around to be ready for the next attack

Thats all assuming the ceasefire might hold the two weeks to begin with. Will they probably try to do another round of assassinations?. Thats a given but as the saying goes, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."

 

[Blitzo]

You've already established their incompetence, so stupid and roundabout way of doing malice is on brand, Trump thrive on exactly this kind of betrayal as demonstrated by his track record. Remember the countless occasions US asked for negotiation then use the opportunity to either bomb the negotiator or bomb the leaders? This is obviously extremely damaging to US reputation yet they did it anyway.

What you describe as "betrayal" may well be seen by the US as "honest negotiating tactics".

It would not be unreasonable for the US to take on a few days or two weeks of ceasefire to hear what an adversary has to say and try to pressure them into less ambitious terms of peace, and then if the US doesn't like what their adversary is saying, then resume their bombing campaign.


You have to put yourself into America's shoes, or at least Trump's shoes ----- remember they probably believe they are in a position of strength.

They probably think they are being generous and doing Iran a favour and they think Iran is desperate and crawling to them for a deal, but that it still remains at America's will and whim to still "end their civilization" if Trump doesn't like the sound of what Iran is saying.
To Trump, America is being generous and giving Iran patience that they don't deserve, but America is magnanimous, and if it ends up that America goes back to bombing Iran that is not a "betrayal" but rather Iran using up the last of America's generosity and patience.

 

[enroger]

What you describe as "betrayal" may well be seen by the US as "honest negotiating tactics".

It would not be unreasonable for the US to take on a few days or two weeks of ceasefire to hear what an adversary has to say and try to pressure them into less ambitious terms of peace, and then if the US doesn't like what their adversary is saying, then resume their bombing campaign.


You have to put yourself into America's shoes, or at least Trump's shoes ----- remember they probably believe they are in a position of strength.

They probably think they are being generous and doing Iran a favour and they think Iran is desperate and crawling to them for a deal, but that it still remains at America's will and whim to still "end their civilization" if Trump doesn't like the sound of what Iran is saying.
To Trump, America is being generous and giving Iran patience that they don't deserve, but America is magnanimous, and if it ends up that America goes back to bombing Iran that is not a "betrayal" but rather Iran using up the last of America's generosity and patience.

The internal rationalization of US does not matter, all criminal has internal rationalization of their crime thinking they're righteous or they have no choice...etc. What matters is we can predict US will conduct some sort of sneak attack within the ceasefire period, if the Iranians are smart they'd prepare for it.

 

[Blitzo]

The internal rationalization of US does not matter, all criminal has internal rationalization of their crime thinking they did the right thing or they have no choice...etc. What matters is we can predict US will conduct some sort of sneak attack within the ceasefire period, if the Iranians are smart they'd have to prepare for it.

You were the one who used emotionally charged terms like betrayal to begin with, and making it sound like the US was planning to "betray" the agreement.

All I'm saying is that Trump probably doesn't think he's betraying anyone, and to be honest if their intent is to try to apply pressure tactics on Iran to get them to back down in negotiations and then to resume bombing if Iran doesn't concede.... well that's a pretty reasonable tactic and strategy, and something we've seen in past wars and negotiations during conflicts.