2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[doggydogdo]

I was just wondering if you guys think if it's likely for China to station a few SAM batteries or J-10Cs with an AWAC, in Iran to deter further aggression from Israel and US? This is the largest oil crisis yet and if not resolved it might cause a massive economic crisis which would be awful for China as well.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I was just wondering if you guys think if it's likely for China to station a few SAM batteries or J-10Cs with an AWAC, in Iran to deter further aggression from Israel and US? This is the largest oil crisis yet and if not resolved it might cause a massive economic crisis which would be awful for China as well.

At this point, China can probably deter US aggression by words alone. "I talked to Iran and they agreed. You break the ceasefire, I break what little left you have of your weapons supply chain."

So Iran caved in?

Iran said it wouldn't negotiate but it did so it looks like it.

But the US put out their 15 points, Iran wiped their asses with it and gave the US their 10 points, which the US called maximalist... before accepting them as the working foundation. So... doesn't look like it from that perspective.

Also, China might have told Iran to calm down so that adds a whole dimension to everything.

 

[Puss in Boots]

I was just wondering if you guys think if it's likely for China to station a few SAM batteries or J-10Cs with an AWAC, in Iran to deter further aggression from Israel and US? This is the largest oil crisis yet and if not resolved it might cause a massive economic crisis which would be awful for China as well.

China has no need to tie itself to Iran, and the Iranians have no reason to accept being a sovereign nation with foreign troops stationed there. Moreover, the Chinese are unlikely to be willing to be stationed on the front lines.

China has ample means to cope with the economic crisis; drawing itself into war would be the worst possible choice.

 

[enroger]

At this point, China can probably deter US aggression by words alone. "I talked to Iran and they agreed. You break the ceasefire, I break what little left you have of your weapons supply chain."

Iran said it wouldn't negotiate but it did so it looks like it.

But the US put out their 15 points, Iran wiped their asses with it and gave the US their 10 points, which the US called maximalist... before accepting them as the working foundation. So... doesn't look like it from that perspective.

Also, China might have told Iran to calm down so that adds a whole dimension to everything.

I hope they take this opportunity to arm Iran to the teeth and get ready for the next round

 

[Blitzo]

I don't think there has been any misunderstanding privately between them.

Trump specifically named-dropped the "10-point plan" keyword in his post.

This was likely a prerequisite for Aragachi to confirm it in his own Tweet.

Iran actually already stated that there have been no negotiations with the US.

They dropped the 10-point plan through Pakistan as "take it or leave it."

Whether Trump wants to do more perfidy through this ceasefire...

Or capitulate for real, the fact that this is the "working basis" is huge.

How do you know they have agreed on the same 10 points lol.

Knowing Trump, what he thinks he's agreed with and what the other party thinks they've agreed with may well be different.

 

[_killuminati_]

Outstanding incompetence and stupidity aside, cannot see nukes being dropped. Serves no strategic or even private interest. MIC doesn't want to see anti-war sentiment, finance doesn't want to see US trust go down, intel agencies don't want to have to deal with every middle power starting a nuclear program secretly or otherwise.

It's not USA but Israel who would drop a nuke and force the entirety of the Western civilization into a conflict against the East. They're already seething at the current ceasefire. Might I add that this is one of their Talmudic prophecies? That Edom (European civilization) will fall after a great battle between the East and the West (whom they also sometimes call Gog and Magog)?

US sent 150+ planes to Iran to rescue a hundred of SOF, I wonder where they flew from? Saudi?

All the tankers came from Tel Aviv. Rest of the aircraft probably also came from there or from carriers in the Mediterranean and Arabian seas, refuelling aerially over Saudi and Iraq.

At any given time these days (even right now), you can see 4-5 tankers leaving Tel Aviv enroute to the Persian Gulf, turning off AIS near the Gulf.

^^ there's 4 right now

 

[Serb]

How do you know they have agreed on the same 10 points lol.

Knowing Trump, what he thinks he's agreed with and what the other party thinks they've agreed with may well be different.

Well, we don't know the true, full 10-point plan yet, as that was relayed to PK by IR.

However, most sources I have seen reported pretty similar, if not identical, 10 points.

What you are saying is that Trump's associates are deliberately manipulating him.

It's not far-fetched to think, but something like this would easily be found out eventually.

In fact, out of all variations, I have not found any remotely similar to the 15-point US one.

 

[manqiangrexue]

How do you know they have agreed on the same 10 points lol.

Knowing Trump, what he thinks he's agreed with and what the other party thinks they've agreed with may well be different.

I think Donnie knows that these 10 points are Iran's, but I think he's out there to confuse the American people and make them think that they are closer to his 15 than Iran's 10 to make it look like he didn't TACO.

 

[Blitzo]

Well, we don't know the true, full 10-point plan yet, as that was relayed to PK by IR.

However, most sources I have seen reported pretty similar, if not identical, 10 points.

What you are saying is that Trump's associates are deliberately manipulating him.

It's not far-fetched to think, but something like this would easily be found out eventually.

In fact, out of all variations, I have not found any remotely similar to the 15-point US one.

I think Donnie knows that this 10 points are Iran's, but I think he's out there to confuse the American people and make them think that they are closer to his 15 than Iran's 10 to make it look like he didn't TACO.

Isn't the more prudent assumption, to first wait and see if both sides are actually explicitly able to agree on what the terms of the 10 points are first?

Ultimately it doesn't matter whether the agreement in reality is closer to Iran's 10 points or America's 15 points -- the key issue is what the actual ceasefire terms that each side believes they agreed to are, and if that ends up different to what the other party believes, then a resumption of hostilities (or at least, further frantic negotiations) are likely to happen.

 

[RedMetalSeadramon]

How do you know they have agreed on the same 10 points lol.

Knowing Trump, what he thinks he's agreed with and what the other party thinks they've agreed with may well be different.

I think the Hormuz thing is "stable enough". The dispute left should be Iran saying only tankers they accept will go through while Trump thinks all tankers will go through. Trump on TruthSocial already says Iran should reconstruct, which suggests he accepts the Hormuz toll, and Iran has shown flexibility for countries like Spain, that and the lag in production until it picks up suggests that tanker disputes would probably be not be the breaking point during these immediate two weeks.

The most likely cause for breakdown will be Israel, neither Trump nor Iran seems to have mentioned them.