PLAAF orbat thread

Totoro

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Thanks for that! In the end, your orbat isn't that much significantly different from Scramble one, in my opinion.

J-11A are still almost nowhere to be found, perhaps just two or so units listed under J11 may have them? That's what - less than 50 planes?
J-10A are also very few in numbers, with up to just four units mentioned having them. Again, under a 100 planes?

At the same time, J-7s are STILL listed. Even though by logic, those should have retired before all or most of J-10A. AFAK, J-7G production run for PLAAF was just a few years and ended by 2005 or 2006? J-7G should have shorter lifespan airframes than J-10A and they're far far less useful than J-10A. One could even argue that due to a small number being left over in the fleet, meaning higher fixed overhead costs for type maintenance, overall maintenance per plane was perhaps not even cheaper than maintaing the J-10A.

But even so, even if both of those J7 units that are listed above with question marks are in fact devoid of J7s and are somehow operating J10A, that still doesn't really explain the lack of the rest of the missing J10A and J11A. It is only if perhaps J8 units, marked with questionmarks, are also operating used J10A and J11A, and the recon J8FR variants are operating separetely from the fighter jet units. (is it possible recon J8FR have also been retired, though? With ever increasing recon assets of the PLAAF, that might not be such a wild idea)
And why have (all?) the Su30 remained in service when they're just as old as J11A, but plausibly less domesticated and thus carrying fewer domestic subsystems and weapons?

With 5 more units (Accounting for 2 J7 and 3 J8 units under question marks) - the J10A and J11A mystery might be more solvable, IF those actually went to said units. But we have zero proof of that, of course. I wonder how recent is the latest info on exact airframes still observed operating from those J7 and J8 units. If photos and rumors are like 2 years old, then it might be perfectly possible all those are gone by now. With 9 units altogether, that might account for like 215 airframes. Which, with some of the earliest J10A and some of the J11A fleet retired could make the math work. (out of original 100 J11A and 10-11 units worth of J10A produced (240-265?) )

Alternatively, all those J11A and majority of J10A (and lots of S, too) have indeed been retired. But then the tactical combat aircraft totals in the plaaf are like 2030 airframes. Or maybe 2150 when naval aviation is included? (are all the non-carrier planes been moved to PLAAF or do some J11B units still exist in PLANAF? Scramble listed one but it may be wrong) Said totals do not include 6th and 2nd AB that have been mentioned as missing.
 

Deino

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Great work, thanks for sharing your notes. I've checked it over and here are some issues I've spotted:
  1. 2nd AB is nowhere, it should be J-20 as per this
  2. 6th AB is nowhere, it should be STC. I'm not sure what they're flying but probably either Su-30, Su-35, or J-16
  3. 54th AB should probably be J-16 as per this
  4. 96th AB is listed under JH-7 in both ETC and NTC, I believe it's just NTC
As a more generalized matter I also feel like we're probably missing some units somewhere because if you count up all the AB (ignoring H-6 and HQ/FTTB) then it's 60 AB (including the missing 2nd and 6th but only counting the double entry 43rd, 46th, 93rd, and 96th once). If we assume there are approximately 2000 or so planes (which I'm not even sure includes JH-7) then each AB would need 30 planes plus 200 for HQ/FTTB. There might be some AB that's at 30 but I think the average per AB is less than 30. This is a guesstimate though and I don't have concrete proof for this so take it with a grain of salt.


Second revised try and again thanks for the correction! Yellow are all newly added / corrected numbers.

1774553687656.png


PS: IMO the 96th - ex NA - is indeed in the ETC, but let's wait & see!
 

Deino

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...

PS: IMO the 96th - ex NA - is indeed in the ETC, but let's wait & see!

Since I am just on it and even if a bit different to the PLAAF Orbat, here is my latest take on the former / still active Naval Air Divisions / Naval Air Brigades, the transferred ones and rumours of newly formed units .....

 

Blitzo

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Second revised try and again thanks for the correction! Yellow are all newly added / corrected numbers.

View attachment 172398


PS: IMO the 96th - ex NA - is indeed in the ETC, but let's wait & see!

In terms of fleet size by main types, based on identified units as well as based on estimates of likely units yet to be revealed, and estimates of production up to the present date, what do you think of below:

J-20/A/S: 450-500?

J-35A: ~20?

J-16: 400-450?
J-16D: unknown, maybe 30-50?
J-11B/BH/BS/BSH: 250-300?
Su-35: 24?
Su-30MKK/MK2: ~100?
Su-27SK/J-11A: 60?

J-10C: 250-300?
J-10B: 56?
J-10A: 250?

JH-7A/II: 200?

J-7+J-8II variants: under 60 total, rapidly diminishing

H-6K/J/N: 150
H-6H/M: 30, rapidly diminishing?
 

Totoro

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Given Deino's list above, id say j10a are more like 100-200 and j11 more like <50. And 50+ j10s.
 

Totoro

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And if j10a are indeed up to 200, then j7 are retired. And if j11 are still around, then probably j8 are retired too.
 

drowingfish

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In terms of fleet size by main types, based on identified units as well as based on estimates of likely units yet to be revealed, and estimates of production up to the present date, what do you think of below:

J-20/A/S: 450-500?

J-35A: ~20?

J-16: 400-450?
J-16D: unknown, maybe 30-50?
J-11B/BH/BS/BSH: 250-300?
Su-35: 24?
Su-30MKK/MK2: ~100?
Su-27SK/J-11A: 60?

J-10C: 250-300?
J-10B: 56?
J-10A: 250?

JH-7A/II: 200?

J-7+J-8II variants: under 60 total, rapidly diminishing

H-6K/J/N: 150
H-6H/M: 30, rapidly diminishing?
I don't see the need to rapidly phase out any H-6. In the upcoming conflict China will need every bomber to deliver massive amount of standoff munitions. Older platforms can deliver older but effective munitions like YJ-63.
 

Blitzo

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I don't see the need to rapidly phase out any H-6. In the upcoming conflict China will need every bomber to deliver massive amount of standoff munitions. Older platforms can deliver older but effective munitions like YJ-63.

I never wrote that H-6s are all rapidly being phased out.

I specified that the H-6H/M variants may be rapidly diminished (replaced by newer and more capable H-6K/J/N variants)
 
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