PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[Wrought]

Would you look at that, they're giving up on the dumb 2027 narrative. About time too, since it would get rather embarrassing as the year gets closer and closer.

The IC assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification. However, China publicly insists that unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of “national rejuvenation” by 2049—the 100th year anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the U.S. will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.

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[supersnoop]

Would you look at that, they're giving up on the dumb 2027 narrative. About time too, since it would get rather embarrassing as the year gets closer and closer.

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Ran out of missiles in Iran

 

[supersnoop]

Also applicable
Remember this moron and "The Davidson Window" (referring to the 2027 date)?

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But, in general, like imagine how stupid I'll feel if I spend hundreds of millions of dollars building some new weapon system that I know is not going to come into service until the 2030s, which is what most experts say is outside of the window of when this invasion would happen," he said. "Wouldn't I feel pretty stupid if there's a gigantic fight and I've spent all my money on something that wasn't ready in time?

 

[00CuriousObserver]

Funnily enough in today's Guancha stream Ayi and Yankee talked about this very topic too. They said indeed even internally within PLA Trump's actions in the last few weeks have changed people's thinking. Yankee said he sat in a meeting where this topic came up and some people were still holding the opinion that US bases along the 1st Island Chain should not be attacked unless they attack first because of international law. Yankee said someone then stood up at the meeting and said:

"International Law? Go ask Trump how to write the word 'international law', see if he knows if it starts with a vertical or horizontal stroke!"

The segment in question:

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To be fair, I'm reading this specifically with regards to "international law", and not as an indicator of whether China will or will not strike the 1IC.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Apart from rare earths which is by far the most well known and often discussed, it is only one of several strategic minerals that the US/Western Europe would encounter difficulty securing. Among them, the material that will give the biggest headache to the US would be tungsten.

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Summary

• Tungsten prices have surged 557% due to tight supply, Chinese export restrictions, and rising military demand amid global conflicts.
• The metal is critical for defense (missiles, ammunition, aircraft) and heavily dominated by China, which produces the vast majority of global supply.
• Efforts to diversify supply are underway, but new production will take years—leaving markets tight in the near term as defense demand grows.

While China has invested heavily into energy security over the past decade - appears the US has done absolutely squat about addressing critical mineral dependencies on China.

 

[GulfLander]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2034411325242163694

 

[lcloo]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2034411325242163694

The "China will invade Taiwan" statement originated during a congressional hearing in 2021 in which Admiral Phil Davidson, then head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China could attempt to take Taiwan within six years, by 2027. This was not based on a Chinese declaration but on his assessment of military trends.

China did not comment on this statement as on whether they will or will not AR Taiwan in 2027.

It is just a hot air statement by a US admiral in 2021, and now assessed as "not happening in 2027" in 2026 to accommodate situational need transfer of US missiles interceptors from Asia-Pacific to Middle East. There is a lot of self-declared stupid statement from the US. Including Gordon Chang, of course.

Anybody here who actually believe that "AR Taiwan in 2027" was from Xi Jing Ping?

 

[siegecrossbow]

The "China will invade Taiwan" statement originated during a congressional hearing in 2021 in which Admiral Phil Davidson, then head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China could attempt to take Taiwan within six years, by 2027. This was not based on a Chinese declaration but on his assessment of military trends.

China did not comment on this statement as on whether they will or will not AR Taiwan in 2027.

It is just a hot air statement by a US admiral in 2021, and now assessed as "not happening in 2027" in 2026 to accommodate situational need transfer of US missiles interceptors from Asia-Pacific to Middle East. There is a lot of self-declared stupid statement from the US. Including Gordon Chang, of course.

Anybody here who actually believe that "AR Taiwan in 2027" was from Xi Jing Ping?

If they keep doing stupid stuff then it may well end up being a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

[PandaAI]

Would you look at that, they're giving up on the dumb 2027 narrative. About time too, since it would get rather embarrassing as the year gets closer and closer.

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2027 was the year the US thought they were ready to take on China. Not anything China said. It’s typical projection.
Iran war changed everything as they found out how vulnerable they are in a war against China.

 

[montyp165]

2027 was the year the US thought they were ready to take on China. Not anything China said. It’s typical projection.
Iran war changed everything as they found out how vulnerable they are in a war against China.

In reality 2027 was the final year the US could even hope to fight with China before Chinese developments became absolutely overwhelming, now it's nothing but a moot point.