Chinese Economics Thread

Wrought

Wrought

Captain
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tphuang said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032144104318968222

Another thread from me on China's Urea fertilizer production, sales and exports. I think China will be exporting a lot more this year.
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Bloomberg piece on the same subject:

Indian officials have asked their Chinese counterparts to consider easing export restrictions as an expanding conflict in the Persian Gulf upends supplies of liquefied natural gas — a crucial feedstock — and forces some fertilizer makers in the South Asian nation to
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, according to people familiar with the matter. The move is a sign of the unusual measures countries are taking to secure key commodities as US-Israeli attacks in Iran snarl global trade and raise risks for food and energy supplies. Discussions are ongoing and a decision has yet to be made, said the people, who declined to be named as they were not authorized to talk to the media.

India has
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9.8 million tons of urea so far in the fiscal year ending March 31, with another 1.7 million tons scheduled to arrive over the next three months, according to the fertilizer ministry. The country is expected to issue a new urea import tender by the end of this month or early April, the people said.
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meedicx

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tphuang said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032144104318968222

Another thread from me on China's Urea fertilizer production, sales and exports. I think China will be exporting a lot more this year.
Click to expand...

So it seems China is self-sufficient for Urea and Nitrogen fertilizers. It's phosphate fertilizers that would be most affected since Sulfuric Acid is used in the wet process to produce Phosphoric Acid and there is a huge sulfur supply shock due to Hormuz.

China already has an export ban on phosphate fertilizers since last year due to rising prices, but self-sufficiency seems possible since China has been investing in a phosphogypsum recycling technology that can recycle Sulfiric Acid from the wet process waste.

Interestingly, there is a non-sulfur thermal process using electricity to produce higher purity Phosphoric Acid that requires 10-20x more energy. If prices keep spiking, it may start being economical to use this method. I get an estimate from Kimi that it would take 600–750 TWh of electricity annually to replace all wet-process phosphoric acid globally with thermal. This seems like a lot but is less than the annual growth of China's electricity generation
 
PopularScience

PopularScience

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meedicx said:
So it seems China is self-sufficient for Urea and Nitrogen fertilizers. It's phosphate fertilizers that would be most affected since Sulfuric Acid is used in the wet process to produce Phosphoric Acid and there is a huge sulfur supply shock due to Hormuz.

China already has an export ban on phosphate fertilizers since last year due to rising prices, but self-sufficiency seems possible since China has been investing in a phosphogypsum recycling technology that can recycle Sulfiric Acid from the wet process waste.

Interestingly, there is a non-sulfur thermal process using electricity to produce higher purity Phosphoric Acid that requires 10-20x more energy. If prices keep spiking, it may start being economical to use this method. I get an estimate from Kimi that it would take 600–750 TWh of electricity annually to replace all wet-process phosphoric acid globally with thermal. This seems like a lot but is less than the annual growth of China's electricity generation
Click to expand...
Just googled. There are 500 million tons of phosphogypsum waste in China.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032773557504119132

China at this point and Japan probably have reached similar level of living standard for average workers based on where the current exchange rates are. Japan's post tax average salary is still higher, but China's cost of living is lower.

And I would say this to everyone on this board. Going forward, please stop comparing China to India. Is it Chinese culture to look down rather than look up? China should be judged by its progress vs other leading East Asian economies like Japan and South Korea.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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meedicx said:
So it seems China is self-sufficient for Urea and Nitrogen fertilizers. It's phosphate fertilizers that would be most affected since Sulfuric Acid is used in the wet process to produce Phosphoric Acid and there is a huge sulfur supply shock due to Hormuz.

China already has an export ban on phosphate fertilizers since last year due to rising prices, but self-sufficiency seems possible since China has been investing in a phosphogypsum recycling technology that can recycle Sulfiric Acid from the wet process waste.

Interestingly, there is a non-sulfur thermal process using electricity to produce higher purity Phosphoric Acid that requires 10-20x more energy. If prices keep spiking, it may start being economical to use this method. I get an estimate from Kimi that it would take 600–750 TWh of electricity annually to replace all wet-process phosphoric acid globally with thermal. This seems like a lot but is less than the annual growth of China's electricity generation
Click to expand...
at some point, I think we need to find a non-fossil fuel solution for many of the chemicals that we get from petroleum refining. It seems to me that sulfuric Acid will still be pretty important going forward and currently not really replaceable in a lot of industrial processes.
 
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