China's SCS Strategy Thread

[solarz]

I don't quite understand why there is so much optimism whenever China does nothing to protect its own interests and friendly governments under attack, preferring to watch from the sidelines with seemingly folded arms. Some members are happy to point out the copism and hopism on others, but tend to give China too much leeway.
As I have commented before, by doing nothing, China will watch its friends fall one by one, and soon may find itself standing all alone with all friends gone. A friend in need is a friend indeed. China should immediately send defensive weapons to Iran, NOW.
I am ready to read responses that may go like "but, but Iran has never been friendly to China, and never will" that kind of cope and hopism.

I wrote an response on exactly this in the Iran conflict thread:

2026 Israel - Iranian conflict

I think Iran has to keep fighting in order to pressure the Americans to back off once and for all. The only real currency they have right now is hitting the Gulf states, closing Hormuz and the Red Sea, and messing with the stock market, basically do serious damage in order to establish serious...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

I haven't seen anyone else post this, so at the risk of going off-topic, I'll share my thoughts.

It's now abundantly clear to me what China's game is, and it's a masterstroke.

The US economic hegemony is based on the petro-dollar. This much, everyone knows. Without it, the US would not be able to sustain either its bloated bureaucracy or its MIC. This scheme only works if there's no viable alternative currency with which to trade oil. The US is more than willing to use military power to safeguard this state of affairs, as evidenced with Iraq and Libya.

For a decade now, if not more, China has been working through diplomacy and economic ties to attract oil producing countries to abandon the USD in favor of the RMB. The US cannot afford to let that go on unchecked, but their only viable option is military intervention.

This means that every time China uses diplomats and businessmen to persuade a country to sell its oil in RMB, the US has to spend billions if not trillions of dollars to prevent that from happening. Each time the US goes in guns blazing, they might believe themselves to be winners, but China simply finds another oil-producing country to court.

The best part is, the US has no choice but to continue these military interventions, because the alternative is far worse.

Therefore, when NED bots come out of the woodworks to try to convince everyone that Iran is finished and China suffered a huge blow, I just smile and keep swiping. I'm sure I'm not the only one who noticed that the Iranians were a lot more effective in their missile and drone strikes this time around. The fact that somehow, we are seeing reports of Chinese military satellites showing the disposition of US troops has nothing to do with that, right?

 

[GulfLander]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2028288068906627098

 

[vincent]

Albania and Vietnam. That’s why.

and North Korea as well.

 

[henrik]

I don't quite understand why there is so much optimism whenever China does nothing to protect its own interests and friendly governments under attack, preferring to watch from the sidelines with seemingly folded arms. Some members are happy to point out the copism and hopism on others, but tend to give China too much leeway.
As I have commented before, by doing nothing, China will watch its friends fall one by one, and soon may find itself standing all alone with all friends gone. A friend in need is a friend indeed. China should immediately send defensive weapons to Iran, NOW.
I am ready to read responses that may go like "but, but Iran has never been friendly to China, and never will" that kind of cope and hopism.

As the yankees are solving its problems in Iran, China should take this opportunity to solve its own in Taiwan. Helping friends is always nice, but China needs to concentrate its resources in solving its own problems, while the yankees are depleting its ammunition in Ukraine and Iran.

 

[Wrought]

I don't quite understand why there is so much optimism whenever China does nothing to protect its own interests and friendly governments under attack, preferring to watch from the sidelines with seemingly folded arms. Some members are happy to point out the copism and hopism on others, but tend to give China too much leeway.
As I have commented before, by doing nothing, China will watch its friends fall one by one, and soon may find itself standing all alone with all friends gone. A friend in need is a friend indeed. China should immediately send defensive weapons to Iran, NOW.
I am ready to read responses that may go like "but, but Iran has never been friendly to China, and never will" that kind of cope and hopism.

Just because you don't understand the strategy doesn't mean there isn't one.

Too many Western strategists expect China to behave like the United States—and then when China does not behave like the United States, they conclude that it is a strategic failure rather than a deliberate choice, and that a chastened China has been put back on its heels.

“Rescuing” a Khamenei or Maduro is not necessary to Beijing’s core goals. Its core security interests lie in East Asia, not far afield. And it has been laser focused on these first-tier security priorities, military capabilities for contingencies in the East Asian littoral, and reducing its vulnerabilities to pressure in its immediate geographic periphery.

China is also the largest trading partner to more than 120 countries, buys oil on a global market, and doesn’t hinge its policy in any region—from the Middle East to Latin America—on just one state. The Middle East well illustrates this approach. China had productive relations with Iran—but also with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, even Turkey, and for a time with Israel. And it was unique in this among external powers, except perhaps only India. In Latin America, too, its eggs were never only in Venezuela’s basket. So, to argue that Chinese policy is hung on alliances in the American sense—with imputations of obligation—quite misses the point. China’s posture is better captured by a market metaphor than a geopolitical one: Beijing has diversified its portfolio by multiplying both its partnerships and its areas of focus with these partners.

Presuming that China will mirror American policy in its own foreign policies to backfoot the United States is a fundamental conceptual error. That’s not been Beijing’s play—in Venezuela, in Iran, or whichever country lands in the global spotlight next. There is no sense in imputing American logic to Chinese strategy. Nor should the United States presume “fecklessness” and “failure” when Beijing doesn’t play Washington’s game.

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[GulfLander]

Tulfo To Consult Senators On EDCA Amid Middle East Conflict​

The senator pointed out that commercial areas and local businesses often surround these military facilities, putting civilians at risk of collateral damage.

The presence of American military facilities in the Philippines could make the country a target amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, Sen. Erwin Tulfo warned on Sunday, March 1, as he called for a review of the country’s Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States.

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[FairAndUnbiased]

I don't quite understand why there is so much optimism whenever China does nothing to protect its own interests and friendly governments under attack, preferring to watch from the sidelines with seemingly folded arms. Some members are happy to point out the copism and hopism on others, but tend to give China too much leeway.
As I have commented before, by doing nothing, China will watch its friends fall one by one, and soon may find itself standing all alone with all friends gone. A friend in need is a friend indeed. China should immediately send defensive weapons to Iran, NOW.
I am ready to read responses that may go like "but, but Iran has never been friendly to China, and never will" that kind of cope and hopism.

Anyone that doubts China can always try North Korea which has a mutual defense treaty with China.

 

[Dante80]

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And a non-paywalled version of the above:

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Spoiler: text

China has signalled strong optimism for finalising negotiations with neighbouring Asian countries to seal a new institutional framework on contested

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waterways.
At China’s

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on Sunday, Foreign Minister

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described the negotiations as having entered a “critical phase” for talks on the South China Sea

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– a proposed set of rules between China and the

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at the heart of easing tensions.
“All parties expect to conclude the consultations within this year,” Wang said. “China has the confidence and determination to work with all parties to overcome disturbances, build consensus despite differences and reach agreement as soon as possible.”
Beijing’s top diplomat added that the code could provide effective “golden rules” for all sides to manage differences, enhance mutual trust and promote cooperation.
Citing China’s historical activities in the South China Sea, Beijing claims sovereignty over almost all the islands and rock features there and in their adjacent waters. It is locked in disputes with rival claimants including the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei.
The framework has been under negotiation since the early 2000s and long been seen by countries in the region as vital to managing tensions in the strategically important waters.
The Philippines, as Asean’s rotating chair this year, is pushing to accelerate the negotiation process by gathering Chinese and Asean officials for monthly meetings in person. The latest discussion on the CoC took place in Singapore in February.
Last month, Malaysian Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan said the CoC discussions were 70 per cent completed and that Kuala Lumpur was confident the document could be finalised this year.
Wang on Sunday delivered a pointed message to the Philippines, which has been China’s most vocal rival claimant.
He urged Manila to “be aware of its responsibility, refrain from being distracted by its own self-interests, demonstrate its due commitment, and play a positive and constructive role in promoting regional peace and stability” as Asean chair.
The last few years have seen frequent maritime disputes and pointed diplomatic exchanges between Beijing and Manila regarding their respective activities around the South China Sea.
In 2013, Manila brought Beijing to

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, which rejected Beijing’s expansive claims to historical and economic rights over most South China Sea features. Beijing neither took part in the legal process nor recognised or implemented the ruling.
Despite the ongoing disputes between Beijing and rival claimants, Wang spoke of a spirit of positive cooperation concerning the South China Sea. He pointed to talks about joint development at sea with Indonesia, maritime dialogue with Malaysia and sustainable fisheries development with Vietnam.
Wang also said the

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, after a Singapore-registered cargo ship went down near the disputed

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in January, formed part of a broader “new narrative”.
“Peace, cooperation and friendship are shaping a new narrative for the South China Sea,” the foreign minister said on Sunday. “Creating trouble out of nothing and stirring up trouble have no market any more.”

Spoiler: text

Why China wants to control much of the South China Sea
According to Ma Bo, deputy director at Nanjing University’s Collaborative Innovation Centre of South China Sea Studies, “Wang’s remarks demonstrated that Beijing expects the Philippines to foster ‘rules-based stability’ rather than allowing talks to be politicised or divided, and this is a subtle warning to Manila.”
Ma said China wanted to turn the current momentum in negotiations into concrete agreements, solidifying progress in areas with high consensus such as accident prevention, emergency communication and search-and-rescue cooperation.
But he noted that the CoC negotiations had hit roadblocks over significant issues, including its legally binding nature, scope of application and the role of third-party actors, making the conclusion far from smooth.
“Each side is likely to stand firm on their core interests throughout the negotiations,” Ma added.
He argued that through Wang’s remarks today, Beijing sought to place the South China Sea and regional security within a larger international strategic context.
“Beijing’s message is clear: the stability of the South China Sea is critical to the security and development of the entire Asia-Pacific region, not a battlefield for geopolitical rivalry.”
Wang said Beijing would not, “like some traditional powers”, seek “spheres of influence and fuel bloc confrontation” with its Asian neighbours, taking a veiled swipe at China’s rival, the United States.
While seeking to calm choppy waters through external diplomacy, Beijing also hoped to boost domestic law enforcement and raise the visibility of its participation in safeguarding its maritime interests.
In its latest five-year blueprint, it pledged to raise “public awareness of maritime issues”, improve “strategic assessment, risk prevention and usage of legal means” as well as “proactively take part” in rule-making for global ocean governance.

 

[antiterror13]

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And a non-paywalled version of the above:

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....

I don't see any ASEAN member would be a blocker, the only exception is Philippine

What ASEAN should do if only one country always creating a trouble

Honestly I didn't realise it has been negotiated for long time, I think somebody may want to ruin it, you know who

 

[lcloo]

I don't see any ASEAN member would be a blocker, the only exception is Philippine

What ASEAN should do if only one country always creating a trouble

Honestly I didn't realise it has been negotiated for long time, I think somebody may want to ruin it, you know who

The thing in ASEAN is that any agreement between ASEAN and China or other countries can only be achieved by 100% consensus by all members. This is an established rule in ASEAN, if one country member refused to give their consent, nothing can be done, there will be no agreement.

That is why this particular negotiation on SCS agreement has been drag on for so long.