2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?


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Andy1974

Senior Member
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The Djinn of Kuwait City turned out to be real unlike the Ghost of Kiev?. Now thats a surprise


So sunspots activate the lead particles in boomers' brain making them more agressive?

Honestly, I don't think they are sub-munitions but decoys/penetration aids. There was an image of a warhead in an iranian museum and you could see the aids distributed around the core.

View attachment 170921
Red is submunitions, black/blue canisters is penetration aids.
 

AlexYe

Senior Member
Registered Member
Either they're shooting blind or they are getting some crazy good intel
The last time they struck a hotel, the 1st night they got 40 people, us naval personal (not deaths) news reported as casualties.
if the pakistan deobandi will come, the afghan taliban will not be able to prevent afghanis from crossing on day 1.
With religious fervour going in the country esp after today, this is a matter of time if land-invasion begins.
Khamenei being martyred in the month of ramazan really struck home for many.
I would be absolutely surprised if IRGC didn't invest heavily in fiber-optics FPV. Given the amount of preparedness we're seeing now, no doubt they have also been preparing for the ground combat contingency, and FPV is such an obvious revenue to invest in.


Damn my post got deleted just because I mentioned strait hormuz n the C word. Even tho it was actual news.
 

EmoBirb

Junior Member
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Israeli aircraft presumably flying over Iran, including a tanker.

Edit: Comments say it's most likely refueling over Iraq

Quite frankly, I cannot fault Iran for not having the ability to shoot these down. But Iran can be faulted for not going harder after Israeli aircraft when they're on the ground at their bases. They should focus the majority of their drones and missiles on IDAF forces and infrastructure. Especially now that USAF infrastructure in the Gulf States has been sufficiently hit.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Egypt would serve as the regional control and logistics hub where material and troops can be accumulated in relative safety. Only after after Iranian offensive capabilities have been sufficiently degraded by a large scale air campaign would they be able to move troops and logsitics into Iraq and then gather there under greatly diminished Iranian fire. Iraq is a non-factor, this isn't Saddams Iraq and it's firmly in the hands of the US and Israel, especially the government, police forces and regular militaries. As for CSGs, you have Ford, Lincoln, Bush and Washington currently avilaible, of which as far as I am aware only two are currently in theater. Tripoli, Iwo Jima and Boxer could also be moved. Not to mention that deployments can be extended and maintenance cycles can be limited at the expense of deployment duration. Also JFK will be introduced into service in pretty much exactly a year from now.
Greatly diminished... you know that even $50k USD gas powered delivery drones with mortars and MLRS has the range to hit Iraq, and there's the precedent of Serbia, in which during 3 months of NATO bombing, they killed only single digits of tanks, APCs and artillery, and Iran is a country with thousands of tanks, APCs and artillery pieces, and now even infantry have FPVs? And are you aware that even Iraqis themselves know that the Shia militias aren't under government control?

Serbia threw in the towel because they had no win condition. Iran has a simple win condition: block the straits of Hormuz.
 

sheogorath

Colonel
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Israeli aircraft presumably flying over Iran, including a tanker.

Edit: Comments say it's most likely refueling over Iraq

Quite frankly, I cannot fault Iran for not having the ability to shoot these down. But Iran can be faulted for not going harder after Israeli aircraft when they're on the ground at their bases. They should focus the majority of their drones and missiles on IDAF forces and infrastructure. Especially now that USAF infrastructure in the Gulf States has been sufficiently hit.

I mean, you can see the F-35's don't venture near Iranian air space as much as the US and others like to claim.The israelis are less risk averse but they don't seem to attempt it nearly as often.


Not even the Russians flew this cautiously at the start of the war against a better air defense network
 

iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member

I'm dubious of whatever narrative the west tries to push but this is still very plausible
They're going to do the same thing with Russia aren't they? Where Xi would hang out with Putin and go "bro we'll build new world order" and the west asks "could China be helping Russia?"
CNN was able to drive from presumably Pakistan or Turkmenistan to Tehran and get coffee at rest stops with trucks parked there like nothing's happening.
Any one of those trucks and tractor trailers could be parts for drones and missiles, the trucks themselves launchers, totally civilian of course, just like with Russia.
But yeah let's ask if Iran sold all that oil to China for nothing.
 

Gloire_bb

Colonel
Registered Member
Quite frankly, I cannot fault Iran for not having the ability to shoot these down.
I wonder. As of now they missed quite a few shots which normally should lead to high intercept chances, but they consistently don't.
Iranian ADs just don't appear to be able to process high performance aircraft well, and frankly appear to work well only against drones.
This is beyond good tactics; they miss even in situations where bluefor package visibly screwed up, yet escapes unpunished for that. This is "something is bloody wrong".

Furthermore, some of their high level force design choices are weird. It's possible to understand why their PGM or ABM intercept capabilities are limited; ultimately it's tech/money question for a "3rd world" nation with rather late and incomplete industrialization.
But coming up with underground fortresses without ensuring ability to cover entrances of those fortresses is sad level of mental negligence.
 

tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
This but what if Trump decide to use Bush blitskrieg style strategy in 2001 against Iran. Deploy 400000 troops both ground and air assault simultaneously and reach total victory in mere a month with only 1000 casualties?
Haha. Bush succeeded only because Iraqis did not fight. US won Iraq without a fight. If they decided to do urban warfare, it would have taken years and years to conquer Iraq.
 
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