2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[FairAndUnbiased]

The difference is that the VKS is quite a bit smaller fleet wise and cannot effectively fly beyond the line of contact aside with the occasional Su-57 deployment. The USAF is already flying over most of Iran and that's with a portion of their total fleet, as many assets are still stationed in Europe, East and South East Asia and the United States itself.

And even then, Russias superior industrial output, bombing and missile campaign against Ukrainian industry and energy has ultimately given them a decisive drone edge at the front (as admitted by Ukrainians themselves) and especially in the long range drone realm. The USAF however could do what Russian Su-34s do at the frontline with their FABs, just at a much larger scale across the entire country.

It's worth keeping in mind that the Americans so far are reluctant to fully commit due to domestic backlash. Their deployed capability isn't their theoretical capability.

Is the US aircraft limited or base limited?

Inside Russia for Russian planes there is essentially infinite airfield capacity.

Is there infinite capacity for hosting US planes in the Middle East?

Where do you think US planes are being hosted from? How many air refueling do they need to reach the battlefield? Russia needs 0.

 

[bagi]

i

Telemetry about what??


There is potentially an issue going in iran right now, apart from all the bombings and all that.
And thats the conflict between the IRGC and council-government.

The IRGC is pushing the council to elect the more hardcore Mujtaba Khameini as the next leader, ignoring seniority and other guidance rules, meanwhile the Council is pushing to elect a more 'progressive' (the words were MBS style) leader that can woo the west later,

There is fear that the ones the council members are pushing is essential 'pro-west' guy/a plant/sellout.


Even these numbers are 10 years old, iran population is 90 million now, spread over much larger more dangerous area.

And as for the ground forces number, this doesnt even take into account the million of volunteers, Irani religious leaders have declared Jihad, and its not going to remain limited to Shia's.

The Deobandi (its a sunni movement/faction in pakistan with huge influence) in Karachi announced today on Friday's prayer speech that they will declare jihad IF us-west-israel troops land in Iran.
This will make the soviet-afghan war look like small fry
Pakistani government wont be able to stop them or else it will cause an internal conflict.

if the pakistan deobandi will come, the afghan taliban will not be able to prevent afghanis from crossing on day 1.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Of this 90 Million perhaps 1-2 Million would actively take part in hostilities as actual combatants. The elderly, women, children are usually not the most notorious combatants. And not all men could be deployed to fight, as manufacturing, maintenance, logistics have to be handled as well. On the other side would be over 1 Million US soldiers, Arab militias and regulars, the Israelis would definitely deploy in the air the the very least, most likely a good portion of of EU troops and an untold amount of mercenaries from latin america, south east asia, eastern europe and to a degree possibly africa too. The combined air power is the main problem though, as even though they'd have to stage from a decent distance to avoid ground fire, the sheer number would make up for it. Compared to the relatively small force currently deployed by the USAF.

Is that go as a I think go, a full mobilization of Iran, any expeditionary force will have to fight the regular army millions and the irregular army. Man, Women and Even Children.

Apart from Shias and even Sunni uprisings all over the region, in Iraq and the Gulf State. Because most Muslisms know what is going on, this is a war for Israel hegemony.

 

[EmoBirb]

So they will stage in Egypt, then what, drive across the Sinai into bases in Iraq to stage for months? All that time they need food, water and ammo to be stored, either on a stationary base or in warehouses in Iraq.

The same Iraq with a ton of Shia militias and a pro Iran PM.

Construct or reoccupy bases with known coordinates and in SRBM range? While the Persian Gulf is closed? Then drive across the desert while being visible visually due to higher horizon in the mountains?

The USN has 1 more CBG that can be surged: George Washington CBG in Japan. There's 2 in short term maintenance. The rest are in long term maintenance.

Egypt would serve as the regional control and logistics hub where material and troops can be accumulated in relative safety. Only after after Iranian offensive capabilities have been sufficiently degraded by a large scale air campaign would they be able to move troops and logsitics into Iraq and then gather there under greatly diminished Iranian fire. Iraq is a non-factor, this isn't Saddams Iraq and it's firmly in the hands of the US and Israel, especially the government, police forces and regular militaries. As for CSGs, you have Ford, Lincoln, Bush and Washington currently avilaible, of which as far as I am aware only two are currently in theater. Tripoli, Iwo Jima and Boxer could also be moved. Not to mention that deployments can be extended and maintenance cycles can be limited at the expense of deployment duration. Also JFK will be introduced into service in pretty much exactly a year from now.

 

[enroger]

For the US Army, the most dangerous thing is that they still lack effective countermeasures against FPV, like every other army.

Even if the Iranians are just infantry, they don't only have rifles and RPGs like the Iraqi militia.

I would be absolutely surprised if IRGC didn't invest heavily in fiber-optics FPV. Given the amount of preparedness we're seeing now, no doubt they have also been preparing for the ground combat contingency, and FPV is such an obvious revenue to invest in.

 

[Mmmeeeto]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2029956349484769648

I'm dubious of whatever narrative the west tries to push but this is still very plausible

 

[enroger]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2029956349484769648

I'm dubious of whatever narrative the west tries to push but this is still very plausible

Plausible is an understatement. Hell Chinese netizens tried to donate money to the friggin Iranian embassy lol

 

[bagi]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2029956349484769648

I'm dubious of whatever narrative the west tries to push but this is still very plausible

the us has went beyond the limits and its acting like a "fascist" state. this is not accepted and is beyond what the international community considers acceptable. see spain. the us opened the vulnerability for this. they did the calculus. now they will have to bear the immense risks involved.

 

[Andy1974]

Ablative thermal protection doing its job. When munition slows down enough, glow stops naturally.

They are not submunitions at all, they are penetration aids, that is why the “glow” runs out before they hit the ground and why we never see any explosions on the ground either.

You can also see them clearly in the cut away of the warheads posted earlier, they are small black/blue canisters while the actual submunitions are the red bombs with each ballistic missile only containing a few actual munitions.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Egypt would serve as the regional control and logistics hub where material and troops can be accumulated in relative safety. Only after after Iranian offensive capabilities have been sufficiently degraded by a large scale air campaign would they be able to move troops and logsitics into Iraq and then gather there under greatly diminished Iranian fire. Iraq is a non-factor, this isn't Saddams Iraq and it's firmly in the hands of the US and Israel, especially the government, police forces and regular militaries. As for CSGs, you have Ford, Lincoln, Bush and Washington currently avilaible, of which as far as I am aware only two are currently in theater. Tripoli, Iwo Jima and Boxer could also be moved. Not to mention that deployments can be extended and maintenance cycles can be limited at the expense of deployment duration. Also JFK will be introduced into service in pretty much exactly a year from now.

Forget it Egypt is too far away. At that point Why not using Israel instead?
One of the reason for the Invasion of Iraq was to put to friendly government that from there launch the invasion of Iran (supposedly) what the Stooges Think Tankers didn't take into account was that once the secular government is gone the country was divided into religious lines Shia and Sunny, with the majority Shia becoming more controlled by Iran.
They only way would be to the US invade again Iraq, fight the Shia majority and do the build from there.