Their supply line is going to have to deal with drones and IEDs all the way to Iran not to mention Iranians strikes, all the while maintaining the active consumption of a million strong army fighting in the front....yikes
2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]
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Their supply line is going to have to deal with drones and IEDs all the way to Iran not to mention Iranians strikes, all the while maintaining the active consumption of a million strong army fighting in the front....yikes
The difference is that the VKS is quite a bit smaller fleet wise and cannot effectively fly beyond the line of contact aside with the occasional Su-57 deployment. The USAF is already flying over most of Iran and that's with a portion of their total fleet, as many assets are still stationed in Europe, East and South East Asia and the United States itself.
And even then, Russias superior industrial output, bombing and missile campaign against Ukrainian industry and energy has ultimately given them a decisive drone edge at the front (as admitted by Ukrainians themselves) and especially in the long range drone realm. The USAF however could do what Russian Su-34s do at the frontline with their FABs, just at a much larger scale across the entire country.
It's worth keeping in mind that the Americans so far are reluctant to fully commit due to domestic backlash. Their deployed capability isn't their theoretical capability.
Either they're shooting blind or they are getting some crazy good intel
The country is huge and mountainous. with 90 million shias in full mobilization mode right now. Israelis troops have never helped the US in any of the wars that they fought and they are even having trouble with Hamas and Hezbollah that are just a tiny fraction of the Iranians and the Gulf states armies are mostly build to defend their Monarchies not to fight a ground war in a 1.6 million square kilometer country full mobilized.
Not sure if posted.
Earlier this week, @CENTCOM posted images from the pilothouse of the USS Abraham Lincoln conducting combat operations at an "undisclosed location" during the first day of Operation Epic Fury. Some details in one of the photos can be used to find the ship's exact position.
At the bottom of the pilothouse image, part of the ship's navigational radar screen can be seen. The names of several of the tracks on the radar screen can be distinguished, notably "JENGGALA" and "VISHVA". Their bearings and range in relation to the Lincoln are also visible.
Using historical @MarineTraffic data from the Arabian Sea, it's possible to review the positions of any ships with these names & find out when they were next to each other in these relative positions. A notable void where nothing is publicly broadcasting AIS is next to them.
Using the positions of these two ships and the bearings and ranges shown on the Lincoln's radar display, a precise location for the Lincoln in the Arabian Sea can be calculated. (22.742615, 62.322400)
The Lincoln was positioned at the bottom right corner of the 'First 100 hours' map produced by @CENTCOM ~150 Nautical Miles from the SE corner of Iran's coastline, putting her air wing well within striking range of much of Iran's coastline.
So they will stage in Egypt, then what, drive across the Sinai into bases in Iraq to stage for months? All that time they need food, water and ammo to be stored, either on a stationary base or in warehouses in Iraq.
The same Iraq with a ton of Shia militias and a pro Iran PM.
Construct or reoccupy bases with known coordinates and in SRBM range? While the Persian Gulf is closed? Then drive across the desert while being visible visually due to higher horizon in the mountains?
The USN has 1 more CBG that can be surged: George Washington CBG in Japan. There's 2 in short term maintenance. The rest are in long term maintenance.
Less so IEDs aside from inside Iran itself, but yeah, long range drones and the occasional missile would be a regular visitor. I said as much and that's why it would be a logistical test of endurance of unprecedented proportions.
Of this 90 Million perhaps 1-2 Million would actively take part in hostilities as actual combatants. The elderly, women, children are usually not the most notorious combatants. And not all men could be deployed to fight, as manufacturing, maintenance, logistics have to be handled as well. On the other side would be over 1 Million US soldiers, Arab militias and regulars, the Israelis would definitely deploy in the air the the very least, most likely a good portion of of EU troops and an untold amount of mercenaries from latin america, south east asia, eastern europe and to a degree possibly africa too. The combined air power is the main problem though, as even though they'd have to stage from a decent distance to avoid ground fire, the sheer number would make up for it. Compared to the relatively small force currently deployed by the USAF.
With love from Moscow? x)
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