2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?


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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
In theory, of course.

The US could achieve a successful ground invasion in Iran. They did far more difficult things during WW2.

But they'd have to introduce the draft back and would have to be willing to accept WW2 levels of casualties. Furthermore they'd have to mobilize their entire military for that single undertaking. Meaning, deploying the entire USAF, USN, USMC and Army. The logistical dimension would be unthinkable and the expenses staggering. And while the US has mastered logsitics like no other military that's currently active, this might just break them. It would also ultimately mean they'd have to abandon all their other interests temporarily. A Situation everyone who wishes could take advantage of in their respective backyard. So not only do I not see that happening, it would be political suicide for Trump and everyone associated with his government. Thus the Israel lobby would have to look for a new pawn.

So going half hearted in would be Afghanistan but much, much, much worse, going all in would ultimately yield success but the cost would make that a phyrric victory at best.
Where would they stage from? How would their bases defend themselves as they are being set up from drones, missiles, rockets and artillery?
 

sheogorath

Colonel
Registered Member
This but what if Trump decide to use Bush blitskrieg style strategy in 2001 against Iran. Deploy 400000 troops both ground and air assault simultaneously and reach total victory in mere a month with only 1000 casualties?
With what sealift fleet?. There has been quite a massive reduction in ships and those that they still have, didn't get any younger so their readiness rate has also dropped.

And back then you didn't have the Houthis waiting for you on the other side of the Suez Canal and the Iraqis were already a depleted force after a decade of bombing and sanctions. Also, it was that invasion what planted the seed for ISIS, so do you really want a repeat of that?.
 

AlexYe

Senior Member
Registered Member

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
This but what if Trump decide to use Bush blitskrieg style strategy in 2001 against Iran. Deploy 400000 troops both ground and air assault simultaneously and reach total victory in mere a month with only 1000 casualties?
With what? Bush prepositioned forces. They were building up for months in bordering countries then attacking all at once.

How do they build up 400k troops near Iran with food and ammo? They're flying tanker missions because even planes can't sit safe in bordering countries.
 

EmoBirb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Where would they stage from? How would their bases defend themselves as they are being set up from drones, missiles, rockets and artillery?
middle-east.jpg
Egypt, which is firmly under US and IL control could be utilized as a regional hub, from which the main Invasion force could be organized. The full scale deployment of the USAF and USN (meaning the entirety of the USNs CSGs and amphibious assault groups that could be surged) would precede the large scale Invasion staged by the US Army and Regional allies. I.e. suppressing Iranian forces with all means avilaible in order to move in troops from Egypt through Jordan and Iraq. Possibility of an amphibious Landing from the arabian sea is there, but I doubt that would yield results. And even a hypothetical, more risk taking US would still not take such a high risk relatively meager reward action. Supply lines and staging areas could be moved further towards to Iran (meaning into Iraq, Jordan, perhaps Syria) if the offensive capabilities of Iran are deemed sufficiently weakened. This doesn't mean that there would be no Iranian strikes, they'd just be degraded in intensity and have longer intervals between them.

This is what I meant that while possible on paper, and while the US has the most robust logistics of any military force, this might push them to the brink.
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
This but what if Trump decide to use Bush blitskrieg style strategy in 2001 against Iran. Deploy 400000 troops both ground and air assault simultaneously and reach total victory in mere a month with only 1000 casualties?
They are running low on munitions and they don't even have boots on the ground. Is a 1.6 million square kilometers of a terrain that is more akin to fortress than a country, this are not flat plains of the Euphrates. There is not "blitzkrieg style" here, it has to be an expeditionary force, once the US army is there and their supply lines are cut, IS OVER. You can't maintain supplies for hundred of thousands of soldiers from the air.
This is already becoming a mayor strategic defeat for the US but Trump can still declare win and move on and ground invasion will become a FATAL strategic mistake.
 
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