2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[brock]

I don't think so, it's very hard to defend empty desert. You can just drive around any fortifications and defensives. If Iraq was like Vietnam US invasion would not have succeed. There are not a lot of defendable positions and the threat of getting cut off is big.

True, that might allow Iran to launch an offensive into Iraq (however considering the amount of intelligence US and Israel have that might not be a good idea BCS any concentration of troops will get bombed)

And it's hard for US troops as well to launch a ground into Iran as well because if they are going to launch it from let's say Iraq, it's mostly flat terrain. So most there are risk that any concentration of troops there will be bombed as well.

And performing a disembark through Hormuz will be an Insane operation and unlikely.

But asides from that nothing more can change unless there is a ground invasion that goes well or any of the two side dries up economically speaking, we'll have to see.

 

[doggydogdo]

In general what you want from an air campaign is to use high end missiles and strike planes to kick open the door and eliminate air defense capabilities, then you can use short range but high endurance weapons such as glide bombs, helicopters, tanks, artillery, etc. If this fails, you lose endurance since your missile stockpile gets low and run out of economically viable targets.

Since Iranian F-4s are still flying and drones are being shot down constantly, it shows that Iranian airspace is still in the contested phase. They can't use their low end weapons yet, they are still using missiles and strike planes. But every launch and sortie exhausts them because it costs 1 Shahed equivalent per hour in maintenance and operation costs to fly a F-15E let alone anything higher end.

They are definitely using glide bombs. 30km is more than enough distance to avoid Iranian defenses. We can see drone strikes by Israel/US way closer than 30km.

They must put boots on the ground or give up.

Yeah, US and Israel sortie rates will drop since the jets needs servicing and the largest bases around the area are already damaged which would make maintenance harder. This with the fact that drones are getting shot down means it's grip over Iran's skies will weaken over the next few weeks. This was probably the reason why Israel gave up in 12 days last time.

 

[anzha]

I'm mostly going to be watching this thread as it is a source of different info than other places. I do want to make a few comments though.

1. predictions! oh! I'm good (not) at this! TACO will beat up on Iran for a while and then declare victory without any real reason as he gets bored. Israel will get annoyed but running low on munitions will give up as well. I bet there is a hit on the Iranian oil terminals (if not already done) to destroy them assuming no capitulation by Iran. A capitulation is highly unlikely, IMO. There is a middle grade chance the GCC will join in and start punching Iran just because they have the chance. Any Iranian attacks on the water systems of the GCC will greatly increase this likelihood. Iran's own water problems are nontrivial, too. Iran is probably going to come out, but will have some wounds needing to be tended. Nontrivial ones. A certain nation which shall be unnamed due to mod warnings might end up rebuilding anything lost.

Remember: I thought the Ukrainians would go down in the first 3 to 6 months of the Russian 3 day special military operation, so take any prediction of mine with a massive grain of salt when it comes to international affairs.

2. wrt Hermes and Reaper drones being shot down. They are, in fact, being whacked. No doubt about it. These are the equivalent of a Bayraktar. Those cannot operate in Russian controlled airspace at all. That those drones are able to operate at all in Iranian air space does seem to be a bit lost here.

3. Air superiority does not mean air supremacy. During the Gulf War circa 1991, the Coalition had air superiority PDQ yet the Iraqis still flew missions for quite some time. I am surprised an Iranian F-4 flew a strike mission, but I think it goes to show the lack of planning and readiness on the American side. CAP is a basic function, folks.

4. Ground invasions can be predicted by the movement of the ships with equipment. Most of the prepositioned ready fleet are gone, but if the ones in the US start moving, then we may see an invasion. Otherwise, any boots on ground will just be SOF and maybe but doubtful airborne or marine units. They'll have no tail so there will be minimal amounts of time on ground. SOF is the likely ground work only.

5. Individual strikes, individual attacks and individual posts little matter. If the bombing of Germany didn't stop their war machine and the number of munitions dropped on North Vietnam didn't stop their taking of the South, then I doubt a few - even a couple hundred - conventionally armed ballistic missiles are going to totally devastate Israel and I'm extremely dubious the weapons dropped by the IAF and US are going to do nearly as much as claimed. If the October strikes were so effective as to totally destroy the Iranian nuclear program, why are we here?

At any rate, we are in day 4 of what is likely to be Trump's Special Military Operation TACO Kebab brought to you by cold McDonald's. Since Trump is talking about a month or more of strikes, let's see if that happens. We have at least 27 days to go by his stated expectations. That said I'd LMFAO off if he ends it on April 1st. Then mourn the stupid, senseless loss of life.

 

[AlexYe]

How exactly is Trump suppose to provide military protection to the Straits of Hormuz?

You gonna sail a carrier strike group through it? Because all I see is a golden opportunity for Iran on forcing the US to waste more air defenses.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2028903693852999899

Fingers Crossed Trump or hegseth orders it.

Israel threatens to target the Esteghlal Industrial Complex in Tehran.


A summary of attacks on Iranian missile infrastructure:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2028898256168632695

Meanwhile F35's have finally surpassed F22's Balloon kill with a... DRONE KILL

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2028899837358346551

 

[bagi]

While i do understand the logic behind the "bombing every launcher and destroying iranian industry" predictions, i do not see this as guaranteed by any means nor in terms of tactically being able to execute this from start to end in the current context we are seeing. Maybe there would be signs if everything in the way the war started had been different. While its likely, i dont see any reason at all to believe it will by the signs we have currently. Its too early, but, the american performance has been atrociously weak for the resources america have in their hands.

 

[bebops]

On polymarket, there is 40% chance that Iran regime will collapse by June. I don't see missiles flying from Iran as much. It leads me to believe that their missile count is low. Right now, I don't think they are producing missiles at normal rate since their underground production facilities are getting bombed.

At the end, Iran will become more like Lebanon hezbollah, unable to hit back hard but only can offer word of encouragement.

 

[sheogorath]

This seems like such a terrible idea given the capabilities of the carrier.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2028911361082687620

 

[Nevermore]

On polymarket, there is 40% chance that Iran regime will collapse by June. I don't see missiles flying from Iran as much. It leads me to believe that their missile count is low. Right now, I don't think they are producing missiles at normal rate since their underground production facilities are getting bombed.

At the end, Iran will become more like Lebanon hezbollah, unable to hit back hard but only can offer word of encouragement.

I still believe Iran's industrial capabilities would be extremely difficult to destroy through airstrikes, especially with only three months of bombing. Iran's most potent weapon today is its suicide drones, which are remarkably simple to manufacture—production can be set up in any makeshift underground bunker. Moreover, should U.S. airstrikes inflict significant civilian casualties or damage critical infrastructure, Iran could escalate its retaliation by targeting Israel's high-tech industrial parks. Israel's capacity to withstand such attacks is far less robust than Iran's.

 

[bebops]

I still believe Iran's industrial capabilities would be extremely difficult to destroy through airstrikes, especially with only three months of bombing. Iran's most potent weapon today is its suicide drones, which are remarkably simple to manufacture—production can be set up in any makeshift underground bunker. Moreover, should U.S. airstrikes inflict significant civilian casualties or damage critical infrastructure, Iran could escalate its retaliation by targeting Israel's high-tech industrial parks. Israel's capacity to withstand such attacks is far less robust than Iran's.

Drone, yes. People can literally assemble them at home. Building ballistic missiles that are 50-100 feet tall, No. You need a complex big facility for that.

 

[Nevermore]

Drone, yes. People can literally assemble them at home. Building ballistic missiles that are 50-100 feet tall, No.

I believe it is also highly unrealistic to completely destroy the missile production facilities, as Iran's territory is vast and its industrial infrastructure is robust. Suppressing the dispersed underground industrial complexes would require years of intense bombing.