2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?


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dingyibvs

Senior Member
I don’t know how much this contributes to the discussion in this thread, but here’s a POV from someone in the Gulf, specifically the UAE. And yes, just to be transparent, I did use AI to help me formulate and correct what I’m writing here.

I’ll start by saying this clearly: this war is completely on Israel and the US. Israel has been begging for such a war for a long time, pushing and provoking, and everyone treated it like a joke and did nothing about it. They let it fester until we got Trump 1, and now Trump 2.0, and here we are with war in the Gulf. This is not our war. It is 100% on them.

Now about the current situation. Yes, all Gulf countries are being attacked. Yes, some missiles and drones have gotten through. But we are intercepting the majority of them. That’s normal considering we operate sophisticated air defense systems like Patriots, THAAD, Korean M-SAM, Pantsir, and others, and we use fighter jets to defend our airspace as well. Until now, we are safe, and I’m thankful for that. But let’s be realistic. Interceptors will run dry at some point. Stockpiles are not infinite. If this continues long enough, we either won’t be able to defend properly anymore, or we become Ukraine 2.0 — defending key assets while letting other areas be hit. And again, this entire situation is on the US and Israel.

As I see it, the US has abandoned us in the Gulf. I’ve said this for years, even before I was deeply into geopolitics or military affairs. Washington will always prioritize Israel above everyone else, and that’s exactly what we are seeing. They are focused on protecting Israel as always, while we deal with the consequences of decisions made elsewhere.

My view on how to end this war is simple. We need to kick the Americans out and close down those bases. Yes, maybe they brought some safety before, and I acknowledge that. But if Israel is effectively steering decisions in Washington and dragging the entire region into conflicts that are not ours, then those bases bring us more problems than benefits. They make us targets. They bring war to our doorstep. We need them gone completely from all GCC states.

As for Iran, our relationship hasn’t been perfect, but we have never formally gone to war with them, and they have never formally gone to war with us. We have Iranians living among us. We’ve always had trade with Iran. Without the Orange Clown Trump and Satanyahu starting this stupid war, we would have been completely fine, possibly moving back toward more normal relations with Iran. Maybe not perfect relations, but normal, manageable, neighborly relations. Anything is better than war.

So yes, I do think we should kick the Americans out.

Secondly, Israel has brought us nothing but shame, trouble, and problems in the UAE. I believe we should cut relations with Israel and should have never normalized in the first place. We should cut all cooperation with them. Not just because they are Israel, though they are, in my view, the worst, but because they are conducting a Genocide in Gaza and destabilizing the entire region. It is an evil state that should not exist in the MENA region. It is a cancer that keeps spreading conflict and dragging others into it.

Lastly, if everything calms down, I would really like to see the UAE, and by extension the GCC, rethink our military procurement. We are buying extremely expensive Western technology and then being constrained by it from all sides. Political strings, export controls, stockpile limits, dependency during crisis — all of it. We buy the systems, but we don’t fully control the conditions around them.

I want to see the F-16s gone, the helicopters, the tanks, the cargo planes, and so on gradually replaced or diversified away from US dependence. Maybe more Korean systems, even if Korea is still closely aligned with the US. Maybe more European systems. We are buying French Rafales, which are ITAR-free as I understand. Even if some argue about performance comparisons, at least they give us some political breathing room compared to US-made platforms.

The same applies to our most critical systems like air defense. We need alternatives that are not hampered by US political decisions. They keep putting us in difficult positions, limiting stockpiles, prioritizing Israel, and making us look like fools when we are left exposed.

Personally, I would like to see the UAE start buying more Chinese weapons. Over the past few years, I’ve been reading more about China, learning more about their doctrine and worldview, and my perspective has changed a lot. I find myself increasingly aligned with Chinese doctrine and global positioning. They appear to be a more stable partner, a more predictable partner, and a partner focused on trade, infrastructure, and long-term cooperation through things like the Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS+. Expanding procurement to include Chinese air defense systems like the HQ-series, tanks, missiles, radars, or even co-developing systems would give us leverage and autonomy. Massive stockpiles under our own control would matter more than brand names.

Realistically, I doubt such a shift happens soon unless the US presence fundamentally changes. But I hope we at least start thinking in that direction.

And regarding Iran, I’ll add this. I may not fully align with or even like the current Iranian government. But I understand that much of what they are doing — their proxies, their militarization, their regional posture — is driven by survival and a sense of existential threat. There are many countries labeled “dictatorships” that do not behave the way Iran does, and the difference is the level of sustained pressure and threat they face. When a country feels constantly targeted, it hardens. That doesn’t automatically justify everything, but it explains a lot.

For now, we are safe, and I’m thankful for that. But we need to act before it becomes unsafe. We need to negotiate, talk, and de-escalate with Iran based on what their national security officials have indicated. We need to stop being dragged into wars that are not ours.

Pray this all ends.
Well, the GCC's western weapons were never meant to be used to protect them, it's the money paid for them that's meant to protect them.
 

AlexYe

Senior Member
Registered Member
I have to say Al Khamenei made an absolutely all time great play deciding to martyr himself. He essentially coalesced public support, and forced the Americans to attack early before they were completely ready because of the Isrealis. He essentially won Iran the strategic advantage while the Americans got the tactical advantage.

But, what I don't get is why get your family and grand daughter killed?

I mean, it seems everybody knew Al Khamenei was living at. I am speculating, but if his family visited him temporarily, this may have prompted the Israelis to attack prematurely because they wanted to murder his family, and especially grand daughter specifically. This probably, best explains Rubio's comments.
They were visiting because of Ramadan, Israel didnt care.
The school they struck was intentional too as that school had daughters of some politicians and military personal.
Any time now it will happen, they on it:
View attachment 170618

Jerusalem was not a place that Iran targetted in the previous rounds, iirc. But this time there are reports of arrivals here.

I guess Israel found the perfect excuse to finally obliterate that mosque that stands in the way of their 3rd temple: throw a rocket and blame Iran.
This isnt going to fool as many people as they think although the various arab state leaders might use this though.

Since yesterday, Israeli Media , Rubio , Trump have said about something big happening.
Al-Arabiya from Iran posted that some mossad link mercs/personal were operating last night in Iran and IRGC was fighting them.

I think the big thing they are talking about some special operation that is going to target the 460 kg of nuclear material they have, if they acquire it this might give trump the exit he is looking for.
This is why they have been dropping bits about boots on ground or casualties.
"Trump will be happy with this"
 

Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
Seems like they are manufacturing/setting up the narrative for an unilateral off ramp. Do a theatrical entry, get out and claim to have secured/destroyed the 460kg of high enriched uranium, make a deal that Iran won't test a real nuke during the rest of Trump time as president.

This time, I don't think Iran will agree to any kind of implicit deal until it has inflicted sufficient damage and pain on Israel and the US assets in the region. They want to avoid a situation like the last time, when they would just restock, wait for another time, a few months later, and attack Iran again while harassing them all the time. This is literally what happened last time, white house claimed they "decimated" the Iranian nuclear program, and it was an off-ramp. This time, however, as Iranian officials have pointed out, they would dictate how and when this war ends. At this point, you can never trust the American word, as they are a failing, chaotic empire; you can only make them viscerally feel the pain and cost.
 
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Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Seems like they are manufacturing/setting up the narrative for an unilateral off ramp. Do a theatrical entry, get out and claim to have secured/destroyed the 460kg of high enriched uranium, make a deal that Iran won't test a real nuke during the rest of Trump time as president.
They can't find where the materials are, which means they can make the bombs right now according to this testimony.
 

EmoBirb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Where the 83.5 percent intercepted come from? Zelenky ass?
The only "good thing" about this war in Iran is that people finally realize how utterly bullshit Ukrainian AD claims actually are. Given how the US, Israel and Gulf States have been pummeled despite having more, better and more concentrated SAM systems and facing less capable missiles.

Iran is showing how vulnerable even the best GBAD is, although western outlets try to hide it as much as possible after having footage slip through in the first two days.
 
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