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2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]
- Thread starter doggydogdo
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To me, Hezbollah initiating hostilities against Israel even in their weakened state shows that although they all operate with some degree of autonomy, Iran ultimately does in the end call the final shots with each of its proxies. Now of course there's no conspiracy about why Hezbollah sat out the last round of hostilities, Israel gave them a pretty heavy beating and they needed a breather to regroup. But I think also because the 12 day war was not quite existential for Iran yet, there wasn't a need for its proxies to step in.
Now with the war indeed being existential, Hezbollah is already forced to fight no matter what. Like Iran too, they are adjusting their strategies accordingly. Their missile launches are more piecemeal rather than seeking to inflict any damage on Israel, because unlike Iran which is over a thousand miles away, Lebanon being Israel's neighbor means its much easier for the IDF to detect launches and eliminate them accordingly. Rather the missile launches are meant to goad Israel to commit to a ground invasion. In this regard, Hezbollah has a much better chance of fighting the Israelis on equal terms, not least because they are likely much better organized this time around and Israel doesn't have the element of surprise. Combine that with the arrogance both Israel and the US are exhibiting and Israeli ground troops may find themselves sleep walking into a meat grinder against fanatics that are done with political posturing.
But the ultimat point of this analysis is to get to the one Iranian proxy that still hasn't committed and that's the Houthis. My take is that contrary to what some are thinking, they are absolutely not sitting this out, it wouldn't make sense. They are far enough away from Israel to have escaped their decapitation strikes, the fighting in Yemen has been relatively low intensity in recent years so they are still at relatively good strength, and they were amongst the first to come to Gaza's aid after October 7th. Iran has been very methodical in its rocket launches and its coordination of its proxies this time around, so I believe the Houthis are lying in wait for certain pieces to fall in place until its their turn to step up to the plate. Perhaps something to do with Saudi Arabia? We shall see.
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The zionist meme right there, if we don't attack it someone else will.
I am surprised by the use of drones like the Heron and Reaper during the early stages of this conflict. Although we have witnessed several shoot downs, both the US and Israel continue to operate these aircraft over Iran.Footage of Heron UAV being shot down earlier in the conflict.
I didn’t grasp how degraded Iran’s surface to air network had become. I don’t know if this was largely the result of the earlier 12 day war, or a combination of that war and decades of sanctions, but I honestly expected Iran to have a more formidable anti-air defense capabilities .
I have to say Al Khamenei made an absolutely all time great play deciding to martyr himself. He essentially coalesced public support, and forced the Americans to attack early before they were completely ready because of the Isrealis. He essentially won Iran the strategic advantage while the Americans got the tactical advantage.
But, what I don't get is why get your family and grand daughter killed?
I mean, it seems everybody knew Al Khamenei was living at. I am speculating, but if his family visited him temporarily, this may have prompted the Israelis to attack prematurely because they wanted to murder his family, and especially grand daughter specifically. This probably, best explains Rubio's comments.
Americans keep thinking in classic 1990s terms of air defence and air superiority, when it's actually a new form of asymetrical and distributed modern warfare based on low cost modern technologyI am surprised by the use of drones like the Heron and Reaper during the early stages of this conflict. Although we have witnessed several shoot downs, both the US and Israel continue to operate these aircraft over Iran.
I didn’t grasp how degraded Iran’s surface to air network had become. I don’t know if this was largely the result of the earlier 12 day war, or a combination of that war and decades of sanctions, but I honestly expected Iran to have a more formidable anti-air defense capabilities .
Iran doesn't need to shoot down every drone, they just need to prevent their launchers from being hit, their AD only need to pop out when a drone is actually threatening a real launcher.
Keep in mind Iranian launchers are just box trucks or tractor trailers, there's no way to tell if a truck is just a truck or a launcher outside the brief window as it fires, Iran can easily park large number of regular empty box trucks around the country and let the American aircraft go to town hunting for them, waste missiles on them, or just loiter around waiting to see if the truck actually launches.
Trump wouldn't be told to look at ground options if the current idea of "air superiority" is working.
While i like some of the premises and agree, this ending is the most impressive way someone else would justify Rubio lies about this having been done to prevent a fictionally anticipated first strike by Iran..I have to say Al Khamenei made an absolutely all time great play deciding to martyr himself. He essentially coalesced public support, and forced the Americans to attack early before they were completely ready because of the Isrealis. He essentially won Iran the strategic advantage while the Americans got the tactical advantage.
But, what I don't get is why get your family and grand daughter killed?
I mean, it seems everybody knew Al Khamenei was living at. I am speculating, but if his family visited him temporarily, this may have prompted the Israelis to attack prematurely because they wanted to murder his family, and especially grand daughter specifically. This probably, best explains Rubio's comments.
Khamenei knew the attack was coming, israel and the US failed to prevent the leak of the attack, and Khamenei decided to die due to the fact it was likely too late to change much and quickly relocate his family and himself without him getting spared and his family killed, which made him emboldened to gain this huge tactical advantage and die for patriotism.
The sheer incompetence of the US/israel in three days of war shows the whole logic that striking would lead to quick disunity among the iranians failed because they are too nationalist, and also corroborates with pre-war incompetence in properly positioning enough defenses around the gulf, and missing strikes on missile depots having been ineffective, wasting munitions on wrong targets.
Not properly having controlled the information of the assassination and iran having had time to prepare everything for counter-striking so quickly is more shameful because it exposes their intelligence apparatus as having failed and iran apparatus having succeded from then on, killing the last attempt to inferiorize iran. And shows khamenei as having died for his country. So they will never admit it.
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I have to say Al Khamenei made an absolutely all time great play deciding to martyr himself.
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But, what I don't get is why get your family and grand daughter killed?
...
I mean, it seems everybody knew Al Khamenei was living at.
I doubt we'll know the truth. It's possible the family visit was likely bad timing. However, I wouldn't be surprised if it was SOP.
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