2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?


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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I remain pessimistic about Iran's future.

If Trump continues to escalate unnecessarily for the sake of saving face, the US military and Israel can still overwhelm Iran with their sheer size, and may even (or has already begun) commit indiscriminate killings like in Gaza.

The so-called regime change and destruction of the missile industry will instead become a long and painful massacre until the social productivity is overwhelmed.
a bit for scale.

Iran has currently suffered something like 700 sorties with 500 fatalities.

Russia launched 11000 Kalibr missiles alone into Ukraine between September 2022 and September 2024.

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Russia launched 200 sorties per day in 2022.

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Ukraine had 20% of its territory conquered and lost 20% of its population to direct casualties, refugee outflows and occupation.

Iran lost <0.01% of its population and 0% of its territory.
 

Lnk111229

Junior Member
Registered Member
a bit for scale.

Iran has currently suffered something like 700 sorties with 500 fatalities.

Russia launched 11000 Kalibr missiles alone into Ukraine between September 2022 and September 2024.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Russia launched 200 sorties per day in 2022.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Ukraine had 20% of its territory conquered and lost 20% of its population to direct casualties, refugee outflows and occupation.

Iran lost <0.01% of its population and 0% of its territory.
Where the 83.5 percent intercepted come from? Zelenky ass?
 

sheogorath

Colonel
Registered Member
I remain pessimistic about Iran's future.

If Trump continues to escalate unnecessarily for the sake of saving face, the US military and Israel can still overwhelm Iran with their sheer size, and may even (or has already begun) commit indiscriminate killings like in Gaza.

The so-called regime change and destruction of the missile industry will instead become a long and painful massacre until the social productivity is overwhelmed.

Can they do that before they get overwhelmed themselves due to a lack of interceptors though?. It has the potential to be 12 days war on steroids, exchanging volleys daily. Thing is, outside of Saudi Arabia, Israel and the other Gulf Monarchies have no strategic depth to hold out daily missile barrages for a prolonged period of time.

It takes two to tango, after all.

Speaking of which, Shahed flying in the middle of Dubai

 

janmichaeldave

New Member
Registered Member
I remain pessimistic about Iran's future.

If Trump continues to escalate unnecessarily for the sake of saving face, the US military and Israel can still overwhelm Iran with their sheer size, and may even (or has already begun) commit indiscriminate killings like in Gaza.

The so-called regime change and destruction of the missile industry will instead become a long and painful massacre until the social productivity is overwhelmed.

Same here, I just hope the USA and Israel would bleed in the process. And tie up US forces to the region for a decade so that they cant torment a war in the Asia Pacific.
 

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member
Can they do that before they get overwhelmed themselves due to a lack of interceptors though?. It has the potential to be 12 days war on steroids, exchanging volleys daily. Thing is, outside of Saudi Arabia, Israel and the other Gulf Monarchies have no strategic depth to hold out daily missile barrages for a prolonged period of time.

It takes two to tango, after all.

Speaking of which, Shahed flying in the middle of Dubai

The problem is that, like Gaza, this won't have a particularly significant impact on Israel's productivity. The biggest economic damage will only be suffered by the weak and incompetent Gulf vassal states.

As I said before, the US and Israel don't really care about the thousands or tens of thousands of casualties, let alone the foreign workers and ordinary people in the Gulf states.

If Iran falls, the entire Middle East will belong to Israel; the profits are too tempting, and they will absolutely be willing to continue fighting
 

enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
The problem is that, like Gaza, this won't have a particularly significant impact on Israel's productivity. The biggest economic damage will only be suffered by the weak and incompetent Gulf vassal states.

As I said before, the US and Israel don't really care about the thousands or tens of thousands of casualties, let alone the foreign workers and ordinary people in the Gulf states.

If Iran falls, the entire Middle East will belong to Israel; the profits are too tempting, and they will absolutely be willing to continue fighting

Are you forgetting that Israel itself is getting a hammering? We're not seeing anything yet because of the censorship so we don't know the extent of the damage so far
 

Muyanragebaiter

Just Hatched
Registered Member
I don’t know how much this contributes to the discussion in this thread, but here’s a POV from someone in the Gulf, specifically the UAE. And yes, just to be transparent, I did use AI to help me formulate and correct what I’m writing here.

I’ll start by saying this clearly: this war is completely on Israel and the US. Israel has been begging for such a war for a long time, pushing and provoking, and everyone treated it like a joke and did nothing about it. They let it fester until we got Trump 1, and now Trump 2.0, and here we are with war in the Gulf. This is not our war. It is 100% on them.

Now about the current situation. Yes, all Gulf countries are being attacked. Yes, some missiles and drones have gotten through. But we are intercepting the majority of them. That’s normal considering we operate sophisticated air defense systems like Patriots, THAAD, Korean M-SAM, Pantsir, and others, and we use fighter jets to defend our airspace as well. Until now, we are safe, and I’m thankful for that. But let’s be realistic. Interceptors will run dry at some point. Stockpiles are not infinite. If this continues long enough, we either won’t be able to defend properly anymore, or we become Ukraine 2.0 — defending key assets while letting other areas be hit. And again, this entire situation is on the US and Israel.

As I see it, the US has abandoned us in the Gulf. I’ve said this for years, even before I was deeply into geopolitics or military affairs. Washington will always prioritize Israel above everyone else, and that’s exactly what we are seeing. They are focused on protecting Israel as always, while we deal with the consequences of decisions made elsewhere.

My view on how to end this war is simple. We need to kick the Americans out and close down those bases. Yes, maybe they brought some safety before, and I acknowledge that. But if Israel is effectively steering decisions in Washington and dragging the entire region into conflicts that are not ours, then those bases bring us more problems than benefits. They make us targets. They bring war to our doorstep. We need them gone completely from all GCC states.

As for Iran, our relationship hasn’t been perfect, but we have never formally gone to war with them, and they have never formally gone to war with us. We have Iranians living among us. We’ve always had trade with Iran. Without the Orange Clown Trump and Satanyahu starting this stupid war, we would have been completely fine, possibly moving back toward more normal relations with Iran. Maybe not perfect relations, but normal, manageable, neighborly relations. Anything is better than war.

So yes, I do think we should kick the Americans out.

Secondly, Israel has brought us nothing but shame, trouble, and problems in the UAE. I believe we should cut relations with Israel and should have never normalized in the first place. We should cut all cooperation with them. Not just because they are Israel, though they are, in my view, the worst, but because they are conducting a Genocide in Gaza and destabilizing the entire region. It is an evil state that should not exist in the MENA region. It is a cancer that keeps spreading conflict and dragging others into it.

Lastly, if everything calms down, I would really like to see the UAE, and by extension the GCC, rethink our military procurement. We are buying extremely expensive Western technology and then being constrained by it from all sides. Political strings, export controls, stockpile limits, dependency during crisis — all of it. We buy the systems, but we don’t fully control the conditions around them.

I want to see the F-16s gone, the helicopters, the tanks, the cargo planes, and so on gradually replaced or diversified away from US dependence. Maybe more Korean systems, even if Korea is still closely aligned with the US. Maybe more European systems. We are buying French Rafales, which are ITAR-free as I understand. Even if some argue about performance comparisons, at least they give us some political breathing room compared to US-made platforms.

The same applies to our most critical systems like air defense. We need alternatives that are not hampered by US political decisions. They keep putting us in difficult positions, limiting stockpiles, prioritizing Israel, and making us look like fools when we are left exposed.

Personally, I would like to see the UAE start buying more Chinese weapons. Over the past few years, I’ve been reading more about China, learning more about their doctrine and worldview, and my perspective has changed a lot. I find myself increasingly aligned with Chinese doctrine and global positioning. They appear to be a more stable partner, a more predictable partner, and a partner focused on trade, infrastructure, and long-term cooperation through things like the Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS+. Expanding procurement to include Chinese air defense systems like the HQ-series, tanks, missiles, radars, or even co-developing systems would give us leverage and autonomy. Massive stockpiles under our own control would matter more than brand names.

Realistically, I doubt such a shift happens soon unless the US presence fundamentally changes. But I hope we at least start thinking in that direction.

And regarding Iran, I’ll add this. I may not fully align with or even like the current Iranian government. But I understand that much of what they are doing — their proxies, their militarization, their regional posture — is driven by survival and a sense of existential threat. There are many countries labeled “dictatorships” that do not behave the way Iran does, and the difference is the level of sustained pressure and threat they face. When a country feels constantly targeted, it hardens. That doesn’t automatically justify everything, but it explains a lot.

For now, we are safe, and I’m thankful for that. But we need to act before it becomes unsafe. We need to negotiate, talk, and de-escalate with Iran based on what their national security officials have indicated. We need to stop being dragged into wars that are not ours.

Pray this all ends.
 

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member
Are you forgetting that Israel itself is getting a hammering? We're not seeing anything yet because of the censorship so we don't know the extent of the damage so far
Please reread the second paragraph.

Just as the old men in the US Congress don't really care about the death of tens of thousands of American soldiers. The death of tens of thousands of Jewish goyims wouldn't have a significant impact on Israeli society, if they can finish Iran, really.
 

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
I don’t know how much this contributes to the discussion in this thread, but here’s a POV from someone in the Gulf, specifically the UAE. And yes, just to be transparent, I did use AI to help me formulate and correct what I’m writing here.

I’ll start by saying this clearly: this war is completely on Israel and the US. Israel has been begging for such a war for a long time, pushing and provoking, and everyone treated it like a joke and did nothing about it. They let it fester until we got Trump 1, and now Trump 2.0, and here we are with war in the Gulf. This is not our war. It is 100% on them.

Now about the current situation. Yes, all Gulf countries are being attacked. Yes, some missiles and drones have gotten through. But we are intercepting the majority of them. That’s normal considering we operate sophisticated air defense systems like Patriots, THAAD, Korean M-SAM, Pantsir, and others, and we use fighter jets to defend our airspace as well. Until now, we are safe, and I’m thankful for that. But let’s be realistic. Interceptors will run dry at some point. Stockpiles are not infinite. If this continues long enough, we either won’t be able to defend properly anymore, or we become Ukraine 2.0 — defending key assets while letting other areas be hit. And again, this entire situation is on the US and Israel.

As I see it, the US has abandoned us in the Gulf. I’ve said this for years, even before I was deeply into geopolitics or military affairs. Washington will always prioritize Israel above everyone else, and that’s exactly what we are seeing. They are focused on protecting Israel as always, while we deal with the consequences of decisions made elsewhere.

My view on how to end this war is simple. We need to kick the Americans out and close down those bases. Yes, maybe they brought some safety before, and I acknowledge that. But if Israel is effectively steering decisions in Washington and dragging the entire region into conflicts that are not ours, then those bases bring us more problems than benefits. They make us targets. They bring war to our doorstep. We need them gone completely from all GCC states.

As for Iran, our relationship hasn’t been perfect, but we have never formally gone to war with them, and they have never formally gone to war with us. We have Iranians living among us. We’ve always had trade with Iran. Without the Orange Clown Trump and Satanyahu starting this stupid war, we would have been completely fine, possibly moving back toward more normal relations with Iran. Maybe not perfect relations, but normal, manageable, neighborly relations. Anything is better than war.

So yes, I do think we should kick the Americans out.

Secondly, Israel has brought us nothing but shame, trouble, and problems in the UAE. I believe we should cut relations with Israel and should have never normalized in the first place. We should cut all cooperation with them. Not just because they are Israel, though they are, in my view, the worst, but because they are conducting a Genocide in Gaza and destabilizing the entire region. It is an evil state that should not exist in the MENA region. It is a cancer that keeps spreading conflict and dragging others into it.

Lastly, if everything calms down, I would really like to see the UAE, and by extension the GCC, rethink our military procurement. We are buying extremely expensive Western technology and then being constrained by it from all sides. Political strings, export controls, stockpile limits, dependency during crisis — all of it. We buy the systems, but we don’t fully control the conditions around them.

I want to see the F-16s gone, the helicopters, the tanks, the cargo planes, and so on gradually replaced or diversified away from US dependence. Maybe more Korean systems, even if Korea is still closely aligned with the US. Maybe more European systems. We are buying French Rafales, which are ITAR-free as I understand. Even if some argue about performance comparisons, at least they give us some political breathing room compared to US-made platforms.

The same applies to our most critical systems like air defense. We need alternatives that are not hampered by US political decisions. They keep putting us in difficult positions, limiting stockpiles, prioritizing Israel, and making us look like fools when we are left exposed.

Personally, I would like to see the UAE start buying more Chinese weapons. Over the past few years, I’ve been reading more about China, learning more about their doctrine and worldview, and my perspective has changed a lot. I find myself increasingly aligned with Chinese doctrine and global positioning. They appear to be a more stable partner, a more predictable partner, and a partner focused on trade, infrastructure, and long-term cooperation through things like the Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS+. Expanding procurement to include Chinese air defense systems like the HQ-series, tanks, missiles, radars, or even co-developing systems would give us leverage and autonomy. Massive stockpiles under our own control would matter more than brand names.

Realistically, I doubt such a shift happens soon unless the US presence fundamentally changes. But I hope we at least start thinking in that direction.

And regarding Iran, I’ll add this. I may not fully align with or even like the current Iranian government. But I understand that much of what they are doing — their proxies, their militarization, their regional posture — is driven by survival and a sense of existential threat. There are many countries labeled “dictatorships” that do not behave the way Iran does, and the difference is the level of sustained pressure and threat they face. When a country feels constantly targeted, it hardens. That doesn’t automatically justify everything, but it explains a lot.

For now, we are safe, and I’m thankful for that. But we need to act before it becomes unsafe. We need to negotiate, talk, and de-escalate with Iran based on what their national security officials have indicated. We need to stop being dragged into wars that are not ours.

Pray this all ends.
Welcome to the forum and thank you for your perspective.
 

Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
I remain pessimistic about Iran's future.

If Trump continues to escalate unnecessarily for the sake of saving face, the US military and Israel can still overwhelm Iran with their sheer size, and may even (or has already begun) commit indiscriminate killings like in Gaza.

The so-called regime change and destruction of the missile industry will instead become a long and painful massacre until the social productivity is overwhelmed.

It's now lose-lose for both Iran and the US, though; it's just that Iran is obviously always losing more.

But once a certain threshold is reached,

The US might also not want to and simply can't continue the aggression as easily, despite what Israel says.

At that point, Iran will be bombarded in many places, but will likely remain a functional state,

Likely, with the same regime.

But nearly the entire West Asia might also be de facto cleansed of the US hegemony.

To people of this region, and even those who the US empire oppressed over the globe,

This new situation will be a major cause for a rally.

This would be the biggest strategic overall step-back the US has ever faced, bigger than even Ukraine.
 
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